Myanmar

Thailand

Economics

Military & Security

The Karen National Liberation Army, one of the ethnic militias fighting the Myanmar junta, and allied People's Defense Force troops declared control over the Myawaddy township in Kayin state, Myanmar's main border town leading into Thailand, the Bangkok Post reported on April 11. 

Thailand, Myanmar: Rebels Claim Control of Key Border Crossing

The imposition of a military draft in Myanmar is prompting massive backlash among locals, with many openly proclaiming that they will defect if drafted or take other drastic measures to avoid enlistment, such as purposefully maiming themselves, Nikkei Asia reported on Feb. 14.

Myanmar: Junta To Enforce Conscription Law, Prompting Overwhelming Negative Reaction

India

Social Issues

India’s Home Minister Amit Shah announced an immediate suspension of the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar, citing rising migration that has allegedly exacerbated security concerns, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 8.

India: New Delhi Ends Free Movement Regime With Myanmar

Politics

Thailand launched a new initiative aimed at bringing peace to Myanmar that involves engaging key stakeholders -- including combatant groups, China, India and the United States -- as well as "trusted" third parties such as Japan and Norway, Nikkei Asia reported on Feb. 6.

Thailand, Myanmar: Bangkok To Take Lead in Myanmar Peace Process

India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson expressed concerns over the continued deterioration of the security environment in Myanmar, Hindustan Times reported on Feb. 1.

India, Myanmar: India Calls for Cessation of Hostilities in Myanmar Amid Worsening Security Environment

China

Beijing claimed that it successfully mediated a temporary cease-fire between the ruling Myanmar junta and the Brotherhood Alliance, a grouping of three ethnic militias in northern Shan state, Barron's reported on Dec. 14. 

China, Myanmar: Beijing Claims to Have Brokered Cease-Fire Between Junta, Militia Group

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Malaysia

Singapore

Vietnam

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Rice prices are up more than 40% in Southeast Asia since late 2022 amid India's rice export ban instituted on July 20 and El Nino conditions that are reducing rice output from harvests, BenarNews reported on Sept. 29.

Southeast Asia: Food Insecurity on the Rise Amid Rice Export Bans, El Nino

Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) will restrict all incoming and outgoing payments to Myanmar accounts, as well as take other measures to restrict transactions with Myanmar entities, Nikkei Asia reported on Aug. 10.

Singapore, Myanmar: Singaporean Bank to Cut off Connections to Junta

Assessments

Laos

Philippines

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) delivers an opening address at the start of a bilateral meeting with Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (L) at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 16, 2023.

Laos' vulnerabilities will weaken its ASEAN chairmanship, although the bloc's economic interconnectivity will likely continue to grow.

Laos' Limitations Portend a Lukewarm Year for ASEAN

A member of the Karenni Revolutionary Union (KRU) is seen in the back of a pick-up truck on May 10, 2023, in Kayah State, Myanmar.

While it may never be able to retake all rebel-seized territory, the country's junta will likely maintain control of major urban areas, portending several more years of bloody civil war.

In Myanmar, Rebels Make Advances, but Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Snapshots

United States

Regional leaders pose for a group photo before the ASEAN-Australia summit, held as part of the 43rd ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Sept. 7, 2023. From left to right stand the Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indonesia's President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Brunei's Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

U.S.-China Relations

ASEAN's most recent summit underscored chronic passivity within the bloc that will only worsen in 2024. 

Amid ASEAN's Inaction, the Block's Members Look to External Partners for Security

A Chinese coast guard ship sails past anchored Philippine fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea, on Feb. 3, 2023.

A binding code of conduct in the South China Sea remains unlikely, despite the resumption of negotiations between claimant states.

With No Deal in Sight, South China Sea Claimants Continue to Militarize

Media

Podcasts

An overview of the country's evolving conflict

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Myanmar's Civil War

Anti-coup fighters escort protesters as they take part in a demonstration against the military coup in Sagaing, Myanmar, on Sept. 7, 2022. 

Two years after the 2021 military coup, the Southeast Asian country remains mired in an increasingly violent and economically disruptive civil war with no quick end in sight.

Two Years and Counting: The State of Myanmar's Post-Coup Conflict

Burkina Faso

Ghana

Guinea

Mali

Chile

Europe

Members of the Constitutional Convention pose for a picture during the official presentation of the draft they made of the new constitution on May 16, 2022, at the Ruinas de Huanchaca National Monument in Antofagasta, Chile.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Chilean Constitution Is Unveiled, an ECOWAS Summit

Guidance

Senegal

Brazil

France

Germany

Poland

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Nov. 14, 2019, in Brasilia, Brazil, on the sidelines of a BRICS summit. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Russia on Feb. 14-17 in an effort to boost relations between the two countries.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-AU Summit, the German Chancellor in Ukraine and Russia

Asia-Pacific

Protesters take part in a demonstration against the military coup in Yangon, Myanmar, on Nov. 10, 2021. 

Security

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

Escalating clashes between the junta and resistance groups will cause the West to keep its distance from the country as East Asia probes for business opportunities.

A Year Later, Myanmar’s Post-Coup Conflict Rages On

Uzbekistan

Saudi Arabia

Members of a local election commission prepare a polling station in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Oct. 21, 2021, ahead of the country’s presidential election. 

Environmental Issues

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Uzbekistan, ASEAN Meets Without Myanmar

Riot police approach protesters' barricades in an attempt to disperse a March 4, 2021, demonstration in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, against the military coup. Absent international cooperation, the United States is hesitating to pressure Myanmar's military government despite deadly crackdowns on anti-coup protesters.

Absent international cooperation, the United States is hesitating to pressure Myanmar's military government despite deadly crackdowns on anti-coup protesters.

On Myanmar, Washington Moves Cautiously to Avoid Losing More Ground to China

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burundi

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Cuba

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Venezuela

North Korea

Iran

Iraq

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the situation in Myanmar following the recent military coup in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2021. 

Venezuela's Unraveling

Iran's Arc of Influence

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Globalization

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Russia's Internal Struggle

Amid talk of new U.S. sanctions on Myanmar and Russia, we review what factors make such penalties most effective in actually altering a country’s behavior.

Reviewing the Role and Effectiveness of Sanctions

The core of Myanmar is the fertile Irrawaddy River valley. The region, a long, flat area that is relatively easy to consolidate, is vulnerable to invasion from the surrounding mountains, particularly the Hengduan Mountains along the northern border with China. Invading Mongols and the now-dominant ethnic Burman, for example, twice overthrew governments in the Irrawaddy valley. Though control of Myanmar's surrounding mountains provides security for the valley's core, it can also stir conflict with the various ethnic groups that inhabit the border regions. As a result, Myanmar has never completely solidified its own territory.    The country borders Bangladesh and India to the west, but a mountain chain separates and protects it from those neighbors. To the northeast, likewise, high mountains and rugged jungle provide a formidable barrier against China. The Shan Plateau to the east poses less of a physical challenge, allowing various ethnic groups to move easily across political boundaries. Historically, the absence of a barrier has facilitated Myanmar's communication with Thailand and Laos, while also making for more frequent conflict with them.     Myanmar's location makes it a natural bridge between the Indian Ocean basin, Southeast Asia and southern China. Coupled with the country's energy resources &mdash; including oil and natural gas &mdash; its position has made it a target for foreign intervention, whether overt, as with the United Kingdom or Japan, or less direct, as with China's recent ports, pipeline and transport infrastructure projects. Foreign interference, like internal ethnic conflict, is a perennial concern for Myanmar because of its physical geography.

SITUATION REPORTS

Thailand, Myanmar: Rebels Claim Control of Key Border Crossing

Myanmar: Junta To Enforce Conscription Law, Prompting Overwhelming Negative Reaction

India: New Delhi Ends Free Movement Regime With Myanmar

Thailand, Myanmar: Bangkok To Take Lead in Myanmar Peace Process

India, Myanmar: India Calls for Cessation of Hostilities in Myanmar Amid Worsening Security Environment

China, Myanmar: Beijing Claims to Have Brokered Cease-Fire Between Junta, Militia Group

Southeast Asia: Food Insecurity on the Rise Amid Rice Export Bans, El Nino

Singapore, Myanmar: Singaporean Bank to Cut off Connections to Junta

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