Myanmar

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Myanmar began the first phase of a three-stage general election on Dec. 28, Reuters reported the same day, with residents and press observing weak voter turnout. 

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Sees Low Turnout as Civil War Continues

Economics

The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime said Myanmar's opium poppy cultivation rose by 17% year on year to 53,100 hectares, its highest level in a decade, driven by conflict, economic distress and surging opium prices, Reuters reported on Dec. 3.

Myanmar: Opium Surge Deepens Conflict Economy

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Thailand's anti-corruption body publicly warned that Bangkok's crackdown on crime syndicates and money laundering networks is failing because political, bureaucratic and police elites are taking bribes and protecting criminal groups, The Straits Times reported on Nov. 20.

Southeast Asia: Entrenched Scam Syndicates Face More Raids, Though Leadership Remains Insulated

Cyber

The United States unveiled a new Scam Center Strike Force, a multi-agency task force to dismantle scam compounds in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos that defraud U.S. citizens and rely on forced labor, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 13.

U.S., Southeast Asia: Washington Launches Strike Force Targeting Regional Scam Centers

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China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations signed the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (CAFTA) 3.0 upgrade at the ASEAN leaders' summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Channel News Asia reported on Oct. 28. 

China, ASEAN: Trade Pact Upgrade To Expand Bloc's Market Access

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan visited Myanmar's capital, Naypyidaw, to meet junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and discuss Myanmar's preparations for its upcoming Dec. 28 election, Reuters reported on Oct. 9.

Malaysia, Myanmar: ASEAN Reengages as Junta Preps for December Election

Myanmar's military claimed the full recapture of Kyaukme, a key district capital in Shan state along National Highway 3, the main trade route linking Mandalay to China, AP reported on Oct. 2. 

Myanmar: Junta Recaptures Key Township Ahead of December Elections

Myanmar's military junta abolished its 2021 state of emergency and installed a nominally civilian interim government and election-oversight commission ahead of a planned election in December, Reuters reported July 31, though coup leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, remains acting president.

Myanmar: Military Junta Transfers Power to Interim Civilian Government, but Army Chief Still in Charge

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

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The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

A photo taken on Jan. 11, 2022, shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state.

The junta's recent announcements portend intensified violence ahead of what will be highly controlled elections, which will further fragment the war-torn nation but may also help ease its international isolation.

Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Members of Myanmar's military patrol on a street next to Shwedagon Pagoda during the fourth anniversary of the military coup in Yangon on Feb. 1, 2025. 

The junta will struggle to retain control over large parts of the country in 2025, but it will still seek to hold elections to legitimize continued rule by civilian proxy and appease China.

Facing Territorial Losses and External Pressure, Myanmar's Junta Plans Elections

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army ethnic armed organization train March 8, 2023, in Myanmar's northern Shan state. The resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. 

In Myanmar, the resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Myanmar Rebels Put the Junta on the Defensive in Its Heartland

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) delivers an opening address at the start of a bilateral meeting with Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (L) at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 16, 2023.

Laos' vulnerabilities will weaken its ASEAN chairmanship, although the bloc's economic interconnectivity will likely continue to grow.

Laos' Limitations Portend a Lukewarm Year for ASEAN

A member of the Karenni Revolutionary Union (KRU) is seen in the back of a pick-up truck on May 10, 2023, in Kayah State, Myanmar.

While it may never be able to retake all rebel-seized territory, the country's junta will likely maintain control of major urban areas, portending several more years of bloody civil war.

In Myanmar, Rebels Make Advances, but Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Snapshots

Regional leaders pose for a group photo before the ASEAN-Australia summit, held as part of the 43rd ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Sept. 7, 2023. From left to right stand the Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indonesia's President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Brunei's Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

ASEAN's most recent summit underscored chronic passivity within the bloc that will only worsen in 2024. 

Amid ASEAN's Inaction, the Block's Members Look to External Partners for Security

The core of Myanmar is the fertile Irrawaddy River valley. The region, a long, flat area that is relatively easy to consolidate, is vulnerable to invasion from the surrounding mountains, particularly the Hengduan Mountains along the northern border with China. Invading Mongols and the now-dominant ethnic Burman, for example, twice overthrew governments in the Irrawaddy valley. Though control of Myanmar's surrounding mountains provides security for the valley's core, it can also stir conflict with the various ethnic groups that inhabit the border regions. As a result, Myanmar has never completely solidified its own territory.    The country borders Bangladesh and India to the west, but a mountain chain separates and protects it from those neighbors. To the northeast, likewise, high mountains and rugged jungle provide a formidable barrier against China. The Shan Plateau to the east poses less of a physical challenge, allowing various ethnic groups to move easily across political boundaries. Historically, the absence of a barrier has facilitated Myanmar's communication with Thailand and Laos, while also making for more frequent conflict with them.     Myanmar's location makes it a natural bridge between the Indian Ocean basin, Southeast Asia and southern China. Coupled with the country's energy resources &mdash; including oil and natural gas &mdash; its position has made it a target for foreign intervention, whether overt, as with the United Kingdom or Japan, or less direct, as with China's recent ports, pipeline and transport infrastructure projects. Foreign interference, like internal ethnic conflict, is a perennial concern for Myanmar because of its physical geography.

SITUATION REPORTS

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Sees Low Turnout as Civil War Continues

Myanmar: Opium Surge Deepens Conflict Economy

Southeast Asia: Entrenched Scam Syndicates Face More Raids, Though Leadership Remains Insulated

U.S., Southeast Asia: Washington Launches Strike Force Targeting Regional Scam Centers

China, ASEAN: Trade Pact Upgrade To Expand Bloc's Market Access

Malaysia, Myanmar: ASEAN Reengages as Junta Preps for December Election

Myanmar: Junta Recaptures Key Township Ahead of December Elections

Myanmar: Military Junta Transfers Power to Interim Civilian Government, but Army Chief Still in Charge

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