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Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

China

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Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

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Thailand

Vietnam

Regional leaders pose for a group photo before the ASEAN-Australia summit, held as part of the 43rd ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Sept. 7, 2023. From left to right stand the Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indonesia's President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Brunei's Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

Military & Security

Politics

ASEAN's most recent summit underscored chronic passivity within the bloc that will only worsen in 2024. 

Amid ASEAN's Inaction, the Block's Members Look to External Partners for Security

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

A Chinese coast guard ship sails past anchored Philippine fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea, on Feb. 3, 2023.

A binding code of conduct in the South China Sea remains unlikely, despite the resumption of negotiations between claimant states.

With No Deal in Sight, South China Sea Claimants Continue to Militarize

Media

Podcasts

An overview of the country's evolving conflict

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Myanmar's Civil War

Anti-coup fighters escort protesters as they take part in a demonstration against the military coup in Sagaing, Myanmar, on Sept. 7, 2022. 

Economics

Two years after the 2021 military coup, the Southeast Asian country remains mired in an increasingly violent and economically disruptive civil war with no quick end in sight.

Two Years and Counting: The State of Myanmar's Post-Coup Conflict

Burkina Faso

Ghana

Guinea

Mali

Chile

Europe

Members of the Constitutional Convention pose for a picture during the official presentation of the draft they made of the new constitution on May 16, 2022, at the Ruinas de Huanchaca National Monument in Antofagasta, Chile.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Chilean Constitution Is Unveiled, an ECOWAS Summit

Guidance

Senegal

Brazil

France

Germany

Poland

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Nov. 14, 2019, in Brasilia, Brazil, on the sidelines of a BRICS summit. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Russia on Feb. 14-17 in an effort to boost relations between the two countries.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-AU Summit, the German Chancellor in Ukraine and Russia

The Ukraine Conflict

Asia-Pacific

Protesters take part in a demonstration against the military coup in Yangon, Myanmar, on Nov. 10, 2021. 

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

Escalating clashes between the junta and resistance groups will cause the West to keep its distance from the country as East Asia probes for business opportunities.

A Year Later, Myanmar’s Post-Coup Conflict Rages On

Security

Uzbekistan

Saudi Arabia

Members of a local election commission prepare a polling station in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Oct. 21, 2021, ahead of the country’s presidential election. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Uzbekistan, ASEAN Meets Without Myanmar

Environmental Issues

Riot police approach protesters' barricades in an attempt to disperse a March 4, 2021, demonstration in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, against the military coup. Absent international cooperation, the United States is hesitating to pressure Myanmar's military government despite deadly crackdowns on anti-coup protesters.

Absent international cooperation, the United States is hesitating to pressure Myanmar's military government despite deadly crackdowns on anti-coup protesters.

On Myanmar, Washington Moves Cautiously to Avoid Losing More Ground to China

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burundi

South Africa

Cuba

El Salvador

Venezuela

North Korea

Iran

Iraq

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the situation in Myanmar following the recent military coup in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2021. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Globalization

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Russia's Internal Struggle

Amid talk of new U.S. sanctions on Myanmar and Russia, we review what factors make such penalties most effective in actually altering a country’s behavior.

Reviewing the Role and Effectiveness of Sanctions

Venezuela's Unraveling

Iran's Arc of Influence

New Zealand

Anti-coup protesters wave red National League For Democracy (NLD) flags and raise three-finger salutes on Feb. 9, 2021, in Yangon, Myanmar. 

The unrest will raise the risk of a violent crackdown that would threaten the junta’s ability to legitimize its rule abroad.

Amid Mounting Protests, Myanmar’s Military Mulls Its Response

India

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast, Emily Donahue speaks to Evan Rees, Asia-Pacific analyst, who explains what caused the Myanmar military to take control of the government and what happens next. 

Essential Geopolitics: Why the World is Watching Myanmar

Timor-Leste

Rice prices are up more than 40% in Southeast Asia since late 2022 amid India's rice export ban instituted on July 20 and El Nino conditions that are reducing rice output from harvests, BenarNews reported on Sept. 29.

Southeast Asia: Food Insecurity on the Rise Amid Rice Export Bans, El Nino

Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) will restrict all incoming and outgoing payments to Myanmar accounts, as well as take other measures to restrict transactions with Myanmar entities, Nikkei Asia reported on Aug. 10.

Singapore, Myanmar: Singaporean Bank to Cut off Connections to Junta

Myanmar junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing indicated that he will extend the country's state of emergency, The Straits Times reported on July 14.

Myanmar: Junta Likely to Extend State of Emergency as ASEAN Makes More Pointed Criticism

Myanmar's State Administration Council approved a budget for the new fiscal year that raises the government's military budget from around $1.7 billion to $2.7 billion, The Irrawaddy reported on April 10.

Myanmar: Increased Military Budget Will Result in More Civilian Deaths

India's northern state of Manipur that borders Myanmar has decided to build camps to house Myanmar refugees, Radio Free Asia reported on March 29.

India: Manipur to Build Camps For Myanmar Refugees

Japan

Kao Kim Hourn, the secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said the bloc and Japan will elevate ties to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" before or during a special summit celebrating 50 years of relations in December, Kyodo News reported March 8.

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

Cyber

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) circulated an alert revealing that Chinese-linked hackers stole 30 GB of data and over 10,000 emails from ASEAN countries and the ASEAN secretariat in February 2022, BenarNews reported March 3.

China, ASEAN: Trove of Stolen Data Revealed Ahead of South China Sea Negotiations

Myanmar's National Defense and Security Council announced that it will extend the country's state of emergency for another six months (Feb. 1-Aug. 1), citing the need to restore public order before elections can occur, The Irrawaddy reported Feb. 1.

Myanmar: Junta Extends State of Emergency, Likely Pushing Back Elections

Afghanistan

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Belize

Botswana

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Finland

Israel

Nepal

Cameroon

Canada

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Sri Lanka

Central African Republic

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Chad

Costa Rica

Libya

Comoros

Czech Republic

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

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Denmark

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Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Qatar

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

The core of Myanmar is the fertile Irrawaddy River valley. The region, a long, flat area that is relatively easy to consolidate, is vulnerable to invasion from the surrounding mountains, particularly the Hengduan Mountains along the northern border with China. Invading Mongols and the now-dominant ethnic Burman, for example, twice overthrew governments in the Irrawaddy valley. Though control of Myanmar's surrounding mountains provides security for the valley's core, it can also stir conflict with the various ethnic groups that inhabit the border regions. As a result, Myanmar has never completely solidified its own territory.    The country borders Bangladesh and India to the west, but a mountain chain separates and protects it from those neighbors. To the northeast, likewise, high mountains and rugged jungle provide a formidable barrier against China. The Shan Plateau to the east poses less of a physical challenge, allowing various ethnic groups to move easily across political boundaries. Historically, the absence of a barrier has facilitated Myanmar's communication with Thailand and Laos, while also making for more frequent conflict with them.     Myanmar's location makes it a natural bridge between the Indian Ocean basin, Southeast Asia and southern China. Coupled with the country's energy resources &mdash; including oil and natural gas &mdash; its position has made it a target for foreign intervention, whether overt, as with the United Kingdom or Japan, or less direct, as with China's recent ports, pipeline and transport infrastructure projects. Foreign interference, like internal ethnic conflict, is a perennial concern for Myanmar because of its physical geography.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Southeast Asia: Food Insecurity on the Rise Amid Rice Export Bans, El Nino

Singapore, Myanmar: Singaporean Bank to Cut off Connections to Junta

Myanmar: Junta Likely to Extend State of Emergency as ASEAN Makes More Pointed Criticism

Myanmar: Increased Military Budget Will Result in More Civilian Deaths

India: Manipur to Build Camps For Myanmar Refugees

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

China, ASEAN: Trove of Stolen Data Revealed Ahead of South China Sea Negotiations

Myanmar: Junta Extends State of Emergency, Likely Pushing Back Elections

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