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New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation at the War Memorial Centre on Jan. 19, 2023, in Napier, New Zealand. 

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No matter who takes power next, Wellington will likely maintain its ''independent foreign policy” and balanced approach to U.S.-China competition.

Ardern's Surprise Exit Is Unlikely to Change New Zealand's Middle-Ground Politics

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Visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left) and Fiji's prime minister Frank Bainimarama attend a joint press conference in Fiji's capital of Suva on May 30, 2022.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

China in Transition

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

China, the U.S., and Australia will need to adapt their traditional engagement with the island nations to secure influence in the strategic maritime region.

The Pacific Islands Emerge as the Next Theater for Great Power Competition 

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A photo taken on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo shows U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attending a video call with leaders from countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. 

The narrow scope of the initiative will limit its effectiveness in achieving Washington’s goal of countering China’s regional rise.

The Stumbling Blocks of Biden's New Indo-Pacific Economic Bloc

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Why Australia, New Zealand and other nations' geopolitical relationships are changing in the Indo-Pacific region.

Baker's Dozen: Considering the Pacific Side of the Indo-Pacific Region

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (right) holds a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing, China, on April 1, 2019.

Wellington's balance between securing its periphery and maintaining trade ties with China could shift toward the former as Beijing’s military activities in the Pacific accelerate. 

New Threats Test New Zealand’s Approach to Chinese Encroachment

Modernizing China’s Military

Myanmar

Anti-coup protesters wave red National League For Democracy (NLD) flags and raise three-finger salutes on Feb. 9, 2021, in Yangon, Myanmar. 

The unrest will raise the risk of a violent crackdown that would threaten the junta’s ability to legitimize its rule abroad.

Amid Mounting Protests, Myanmar’s Military Mulls Its Response

Hong Kong SAR, China

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue asks Stratfor Senior VP of Strategic Analysis Rodger Baker about the trade treaty signed by ASEAN nations known as RCEP.

Essential Geopolitics: What Is RCEP, and Why Does It Matter?

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, the Asia-Pacific region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. 

Asia-Pacific

<p>The Asia-Pacific is home to more people than any other region. Centered on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean, this region includes the easternmost countries of continental Asia as well as the archipelagos that punctuate the coast. Several of these countries, most notably China, experienced rapid economic growth in the second half of the 20th century, giving the region a new sense of global economic relevance that continues today. That relevance, however, depends largely on China, a power in transition whose rise is testing the network of U.S. alliances that have long dominated the region. How effectively Beijing manages its transition will shape the regional balance of power in the decades to come.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Columns

On Security

Greg Zanis, a retired carpenter, made the crosses and has made thousands of them for victims of mass shootings and disasters.

A trio of mass shootings worldwide raises the question of why white supremacist attacks are increasing in frequency.

Where the El Paso Mass Shooting Fits in the Evolution of White Supremacist Tactics

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

New Zealand's opposition center-right parties, the National Party and the ACT party, have 37% and 13% of voter support, respectively, while the parties in the ruling center-left coalition, the Labour Party and the Greens, have just 29% and 12%, respectively, according to a 1News Verian poll released late on Aug. 21.

New Zealand: Government Flip Could Change National Security Policy, But Not China Ties

New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a series of trade deals to improve market access for Kiwi companies in China, The New Zealand Herald reported on June 28.

China, New Zealand: Trade Deals Will Have Mixed Results for Wellington

NATO is separately deepening collaboration with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea (known as the Asian-Pacific partners or AP4) via its Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP), Nikkei Asia reported on June 13.

Asia-Pacific: NATO to Deepen Ties Individually With Asia-Pacific Countries

New Zealand Prime Minister and leader of the Labor Party Jacinda Ardern announced on Jan. 19 that she would be stepping down no later than Feb. 7, claiming she had "no more in the tank" after six years in office, The Wall Street Journal reported on the same day.

New Zealand: Ardern Resigns, Successor Must Juggle Recession and National Security

United Kingdom

Environment, Science & Technology

Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom announced the formation of a new Pacific initiative dubbed the Partners in the Blue Pacific (PBP), which will focus on climate change, logistics, infrastructure, maritime territorial security, health and education, Reuters reported June 24.

Asia-Pacific: West to Lead New Engagement Initiative

The island nation of Vanuatu declared a climate emergency and estimated that it needs $1.2 billion to mitigate climate effects, Phys.org reported May 28.

Vanuatu: Pacific Island Nations Prioritize Climate Change

Environmental Issues

During U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Tokyo, Japan, he announced the basic framework for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which seeks to create standardization across nations and new, redundant supply chains to prevent future disruptions, Reuters reported May 23.

Asia-Pacific: Biden Unveils Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Basics

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Crossing Borders

New Zealand: Borders to Reopen on July 31, Two Months Early

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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New Zealand is an island nation at the southwestern edge of the Pacific Ocean, lying around 1,600 kilometers (994 miles) across the Tasman Sea from the Australian island of Tasmania. Geologically, New Zealand is part of a distinct continent known as Zealandia that also includes the French territory New Caledonia. Geographically, however, it is grouped within the broader Oceanic subregion of Polynesia, which is an assortment of over 1,000 islands to the northeast of New Zealand that includes Tahiti, Samoa, Easter Island and Hawaii.     Travelling from Eastern Polynesia, New Zealand's original inhabitants, the Maori, arrived by boat around 800 years ago. In the 18th century, British colonists arrived as an after-effect of Australian settlement. Though it is comprised of over 600 islands, most of New Zealand's current inhabitants live on either the South Island or the North Island, with the North Island accounting three-quarters of the country's population.     New Zealand's exclusive economic zone, on the other hand, is 15 times the size of its landmasses. Agricultural products dominate New Zealand's exports, with the lion's share destined for Australia and broader Asia. Unlike neighboring Australia, New Zealand is unlikely to develop a significant mining or hydrocarbon sector to diversify its economy. In the maritime realm, New Zealand has an unrecognized claim to a wedge of Antarctica known as the Ross Dependency as well as a loose federation with the Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue.     Like Australia, New Zealand's main geographic challenge is to overcome both its remote location and its tiny population. New Zealand's strongly pro-trade policies and collective security agreement with Australia and the United States seek to ensure that sea lanes remain open and that New Zealand is safely under the umbrella of the dominant global maritime power's protection. At the same time, it must balance these security ties with its interests in maintaining access to growing markets in the Asia-Pacific such as China.

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SITUATION REPORTS

New Zealand: Government Flip Could Change National Security Policy, But Not China Ties

China, New Zealand: Trade Deals Will Have Mixed Results for Wellington

Asia-Pacific: NATO to Deepen Ties Individually With Asia-Pacific Countries

New Zealand: Ardern Resigns, Successor Must Juggle Recession and National Security

Asia-Pacific: West to Lead New Engagement Initiative

Vanuatu: Pacific Island Nations Prioritize Climate Change

Asia-Pacific: Biden Unveils Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Basics

New Zealand: Borders to Reopen on July 31, Two Months Early

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