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Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

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Science & Technology

The United States, the United Kingdom and Australia are considering adding New Zealand, South Korea, Canada and Japan to AUKUS Pillar II, Yonhap News Agency reported on April 10.

AUKUS: Grouping Considers Doubling in Size Along Pillar II

New Zealand's opposition Labour Party is pushing back against the new center-right government's interest in joining AUKUS Pillar II, Breaking News Network reported on Feb. 13.

New Zealand: Domestic Pushback Against AUKUS Growing

Australia and New Zealand's foreign and defense ministers met on Feb. 1, where they pledged to tighten their countries' defense and security relationship and discussed New Zealand joining AUKUS Pillar II, The Guardian reported Feb. 2.

New Zealand, Australia: Wellington Inches Toward AUKUS Pillar II

Fiji

Papua New Guinea

Tonga

France

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced that France would open a permanent defense mission in Fiji, and he detailed plans to grow France's training capacity for Pacific island countries' soldiers six-fold by opening a Pacific Academy in France's New Caledonia territory, Tahiti Info reported on Dec. 6.

France: Paris Strengthens Defense Cooperation With Pacific Island Countries

Intelligence chiefs from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States warned of national security threats posed by Chinese state-backed hackers who steal intellectual property, or IP, and other sensitive data from companies, The Register reported on Oct. 18.

China: Five Eyes Leaders Warn of China's Intellectual Property Theft Program

Christopher Luxon of New Zealand's center-right National Party appears to be New Zealand's next prime minister, leading a slim parliamentary majority of 61 out of 121 seats thanks to a partnership with the libertarian-right ACT Party, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

New Zealand: The Center-Right Take Center Stage in the Post-Ardern Era

New Zealand's opposition center-right parties, the National Party and the ACT party, have 37% and 13% of voter support, respectively, while the parties in the ruling center-left coalition, the Labour Party and the Greens, have just 29% and 12%, respectively, according to a 1News Verian poll released late on Aug. 21.

New Zealand: Government Flip Could Change National Security Policy, But Not China Ties

New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a series of trade deals to improve market access for Kiwi companies in China, The New Zealand Herald reported on June 28.

China, New Zealand: Trade Deals Will Have Mixed Results for Wellington

Assessments

Venezuela

Egypt

Philippines

Europe

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 14, 2024, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Dueling U.S. and Chinese Diplomacy, a European Council Summit

Ecuador

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Poland

Israeli army Merkava battle tanks deploy Oct. 13, 2023, with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. An invasion will greatly exacerbate the hardships caused by Israel's total siege of the strip, creating a humanitarian crisis that could cause Egypt to use force to ensure that Palestinian refugees do not enter Sinai.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Ground Invasion, a Parliamentary Election in Poland

Samoa

Federated States of Micronesia

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Nauru

Palau

Solomon Islands

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marapeand, the Cook Islands' Prime Minister Mark Brown, U.S. President Joe Biden and Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) as part of the U.S.-PIF summit at the White House on Sept. 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Despite Washington's desire to strengthen ties with Pacific island nations, political constraints may leave a regional void that China is happy to fill.

Strategic Goals and Political Hurdles in the U.S. Play Tug-of-War Over the Pacific Islands

Snapshots

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation at the War Memorial Centre on Jan. 19, 2023, in Napier, New Zealand. 

No matter who takes power next, Wellington will likely maintain its ''independent foreign policy” and balanced approach to U.S.-China competition.

Ardern's Surprise Exit Is Unlikely to Change New Zealand's Middle-Ground Politics

Visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left) and Fiji's prime minister Frank Bainimarama attend a joint press conference in Fiji's capital of Suva on May 30, 2022.

Security

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

China in Transition

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

China, the U.S., and Australia will need to adapt their traditional engagement with the island nations to secure influence in the strategic maritime region.

The Pacific Islands Emerge as the Next Theater for Great Power Competition 

Brunei Darussalam

Indonesia

Malaysia

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

India

A photo taken on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo shows U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attending a video call with leaders from countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. 

Supply Chains

The narrow scope of the initiative will limit its effectiveness in achieving Washington’s goal of countering China’s regional rise.

The Stumbling Blocks of Biden's New Indo-Pacific Economic Bloc

Media

Podcasts

Why Australia, New Zealand and other nations' geopolitical relationships are changing in the Indo-Pacific region.

Baker's Dozen: Considering the Pacific Side of the Indo-Pacific Region

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (right) holds a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing, China, on April 1, 2019.

Modernizing China’s Military

Wellington's balance between securing its periphery and maintaining trade ties with China could shift toward the former as Beijing’s military activities in the Pacific accelerate. 

New Threats Test New Zealand’s Approach to Chinese Encroachment

Myanmar

Anti-coup protesters wave red National League For Democracy (NLD) flags and raise three-finger salutes on Feb. 9, 2021, in Yangon, Myanmar. 

The unrest will raise the risk of a violent crackdown that would threaten the junta’s ability to legitimize its rule abroad.

Amid Mounting Protests, Myanmar’s Military Mulls Its Response

Hong Kong SAR, China

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue asks Stratfor Senior VP of Strategic Analysis Rodger Baker about the trade treaty signed by ASEAN nations known as RCEP.

Essential Geopolitics: What Is RCEP, and Why Does It Matter?

Columns

On Security

Greg Zanis, a retired carpenter, made the crosses and has made thousands of them for victims of mass shootings and disasters.

A trio of mass shootings worldwide raises the question of why white supremacist attacks are increasing in frequency.

Where the El Paso Mass Shooting Fits in the Evolution of White Supremacist Tactics

The extremely secluded resort island of Wakaya, Fiji. 

The New Silk Road

As Beijing increases its ties in the Pacific subregion of Melanesia, Australia is forced to reckon with a more permanent Chinese presence on its doorstep. 

China Encroaches on Australia's Backyard

New Zealand is an island nation at the southwestern edge of the Pacific Ocean, lying around 1,600 kilometers (994 miles) across the Tasman Sea from the Australian island of Tasmania. Geologically, New Zealand is part of a distinct continent known as Zealandia that also includes the French territory New Caledonia. Geographically, however, it is grouped within the broader Oceanic subregion of Polynesia, which is an assortment of over 1,000 islands to the northeast of New Zealand that includes Tahiti, Samoa, Easter Island and Hawaii.     Travelling from Eastern Polynesia, New Zealand's original inhabitants, the Maori, arrived by boat around 800 years ago. In the 18th century, British colonists arrived as an after-effect of Australian settlement. Though it is comprised of over 600 islands, most of New Zealand's current inhabitants live on either the South Island or the North Island, with the North Island accounting three-quarters of the country's population.     New Zealand's exclusive economic zone, on the other hand, is 15 times the size of its landmasses. Agricultural products dominate New Zealand's exports, with the lion's share destined for Australia and broader Asia. Unlike neighboring Australia, New Zealand is unlikely to develop a significant mining or hydrocarbon sector to diversify its economy. In the maritime realm, New Zealand has an unrecognized claim to a wedge of Antarctica known as the Ross Dependency as well as a loose federation with the Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue.     Like Australia, New Zealand's main geographic challenge is to overcome both its remote location and its tiny population. New Zealand's strongly pro-trade policies and collective security agreement with Australia and the United States seek to ensure that sea lanes remain open and that New Zealand is safely under the umbrella of the dominant global maritime power's protection. At the same time, it must balance these security ties with its interests in maintaining access to growing markets in the Asia-Pacific such as China.

SITUATION REPORTS

AUKUS: Grouping Considers Doubling in Size Along Pillar II

New Zealand: Domestic Pushback Against AUKUS Growing

New Zealand, Australia: Wellington Inches Toward AUKUS Pillar II

France: Paris Strengthens Defense Cooperation With Pacific Island Countries

China: Five Eyes Leaders Warn of China's Intellectual Property Theft Program

New Zealand: The Center-Right Take Center Stage in the Post-Ardern Era

New Zealand: Government Flip Could Change National Security Policy, But Not China Ties

China, New Zealand: Trade Deals Will Have Mixed Results for Wellington

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