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U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel that passed through the Senate in a 79-18 vote with allocations to replenish Israel's missile defense systems and augment humanitarian support to Gaza, The New York Times reported on April 24.

U.S.: Washington Approves Aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and Expands Sanctions on Iran

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, Focus Taiwan reported on April 10.

Taiwan, China: Ma-Xi Meeting Shows Contours of Limited Cross-Strait Engagement

South Korea

India

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Chinese government-linked disinformation networks are increasingly incorporating artificial intelligence tools to influence election audiences in Taiwan and the United States, according to a new Microsoft report published on April 4.

Cyberspace: Chinese Influence Operations Escalate Use of AI Tools

Japan

The head of U.S. Army forces in the Pacific, Gen. Charles Flynn, said on April 3 that the United States would deploy a medium-range missile launcher in the Asia-Pacific region by the end of 2024, The Asahi Shimbun reported the next day.

U.S., Japan, Guam: U.S. To Deploy 'Precision Fire' Missile System to Asia-Pacific

A 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck about 25km (16 miles) southeast of Taiwan's eastern coastal city of Hualien around 8 a.m. local time on April 3, Reuters reported April 3.

Taiwan: Major Earthquake Could See China Extend Olive Branch, Chip Production Disruptions

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Chinese hackers and accused them of affiliation with the Chinese government as part of a campaign to preposition malware in U.S. critical infrastructure, The New York Times reported on March 25. 

China, U.S.: Washington Sanctions Chinese Firm for Hacking U.S. Critical Infrastructure

A Chinese fishing boat capsized 1.1 nautical miles (2 kilometers) southwest of Taiwan’s Kinmen islands, killing two and spurring the Chinese and Taiwanese coast guards to collaborate in rescue efforts, the South China Morning Post reported on March 14.

China, Taiwan: Second Kinmen Incident Shows Cool Heads Amid High Tensions

China will launch two additional civilian flight routes just several kilometers away from the Taiwan Strait median line, the de facto border separating Taiwanese and Chinese waters, "as soon as they are ready," the South China Morning Post reported on Feb. 28.

China, Taiwan: China Adds Two More Civilian Flight Routes Close to Taiwan Strait Median Line

Media

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What do China's recent Taiwan Strait initiatives mean for Taiwan's security?

Essential Geopolitics: China's New Initiatives in the Taiwan Strait

Snapshots

Kinmen Island, the main island of Taiwan's Kinmen archipelago, is seen in the distance from a beach in the southeastern Chinese city of Xiamen on Jan. 12, 2024.

Beijing is seizing on the death of two Chinese fishermen to exercise greater control around Taiwan's Kinmen islands, raising the risk of more dangerous encounters in the area.

A Deadly Incident at Sea Heightens China-Taiwan Tensions

Assessments

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Europe

Germany

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

A supporter of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) waves Taiwan's national flag during a campaign rally at the Sanhe Market in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Jan. 10, 2024.

Energy

Taiwan's latest elections yielded a divided parliament that will impede military readiness and economic reform, while the country's growing diplomatic isolation will keep it reliant on outside powers for security and development.

Taiwan's Hung Legislature Portends More Policy Gridlock and External Dependencies

Taiwanese President-Elect, William Lai (left), celebrates alongside his running mate (right) during a rally at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei, Taiwan, on Jan. 13, 2024, after winning the presidential election.

The ruling party's continued control of Taiwan's presidency will see Beijing steadily escalate its economic and military coercion against Taipei, presenting a low risk of blockades or an invasion of Taiwan's outlying islands. 

Taiwan's Election Yields Four More Years of DPP Rule -- and China Tensions

Guatemala

Yemen

United Kingdom

Houthis during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel in November 2023 at an unnamed location in the Red Sea.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The Possible Houthi Reply to U.S.-U.K. Strikes, Taiwan's General Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

France

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Bangladesh

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Brazil

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United Arab Emirates

Belgium

Leaders at the closing day of the BRICS Summit on Aug. 24, 2023, in Johannesburg. On Jan. 1, BRICS will admit Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after agreeing at an August summit to expand its membership.

The Weekly Rundown: Taiwan's Election Media Blackout, BRICS Expansion

How will the results of Taiwan's elections impact relations with China and the U.S.?

Essential Geopolitics: Taiwan's January 2024 Elections

How will China's cyber strategy evolve as Taiwan's elections approach?

Essential Geopolitics: What China's Cyber Activity Will Mean for Taiwan's General Elections

Netherlands

The presidential candidate for the Union por la Patria party, Sergio Massa (R), speaks next to the presidential candidate for the La Libertad Avanza party, Javier Milei, on Nov. 12, 2023, during a presidential debate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Argentina will hold the second round of its presidential election Nov. 19.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentina's Presidential Runoff, the Registration Deadline for the Taiwanese Presidential Race

Supporters of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party rally outside the KMT's headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, ahead of the party's expected announcement of its 2024 presidential candidate on May 17, 2023. 

The outcome of the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections will determine the trajectory of Taiwan's trade policy, the risk of war with China, and the prospects for domestic policy gridlock.

Previewing Taiwan's 2024 Election

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Washington Approves Aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and Expands Sanctions on Iran

Taiwan, China: Ma-Xi Meeting Shows Contours of Limited Cross-Strait Engagement

Cyberspace: Chinese Influence Operations Escalate Use of AI Tools

U.S., Japan, Guam: U.S. To Deploy 'Precision Fire' Missile System to Asia-Pacific

Taiwan: Major Earthquake Could See China Extend Olive Branch, Chip Production Disruptions

China, U.S.: Washington Sanctions Chinese Firm for Hacking U.S. Critical Infrastructure

China, Taiwan: Second Kinmen Incident Shows Cool Heads Amid High Tensions

China, Taiwan: China Adds Two More Civilian Flight Routes Close to Taiwan Strait Median Line

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