China

Taiwan

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Typhoon Gaemi is due to hit Taiwan and southeast China on July 24-25, while heavy rain is due to hit northeast China, specifically Beijing, prompting the city to issue its second-highest emergency response level, The Washington Post reported on July 24.

Taiwan, China: Region Braces for Rains, Typhoon Gaemi Floods, Logistics Disruptions

Military & Security

The Chinese coast guard detained a Taiwanese fishing boat and its five-person crew near the Taiwanese-controlled island of Kinmen on July 2, The South China Morning Post reported July 3.

China, Taiwan: Chinese Coast Guard Detains Taiwanese Fishing Boat

Politics

New Chinese court guidelines state that the death penalty could be used against ''Taiwan independence diehards'' who incite succession and conduct various independence-related crimes, Xinhua News reported June 21.

China: Beijing Threatens Death Penalty Against 'Taiwan Independence Diehards'

Philippines

A quarterly Octa Research survey found that 73% of Filipinos support "further asserting the Philippines' territorial rights through military action" while 68% say the Philippine military should modernize and strengthen, The South China Morning Post reported June 10. 

Philippines: Poll Finds Strong Support for Military Action, Modernization

United States

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index data released on June 4 shows that ocean-going shipping rates for Chinese exports hit highs not seen since August 2022, the South China Morning Post reported the same day.

China: Shipping Rates Hit Two-Year High Amid Seasonal Demand Spike, Geopolitical Uncertainty

China's Customs Tariff Commission announced that it would end tariff exemptions on 134 Taiwanese goods, including industrial chemicals and machine tools, effective June 15, Focus Taiwan reported on May 31.

Taiwan: Chinese Tariffs on 134 Goods a Shot at Taipei's New Leader

Guatemala

The Guatemalan Exporters Association said on May 23 that China prohibited coffee and macadamia nut imports from Guatemala without explanation, with shipments retained in Chinese ports, The Tico Times reported on May 24.

Guatemala, China: China Restricts Some Guatemalan Exports

Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, and Taiwan People's Party, or TPP, used their legislative majority to pass a series of reforms against the wishes of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and tens of thousands of protesters in Taipei, Focus Taiwan reported on May 28.

Taiwan: Legislative Reforms Pass, May Impede U.S. Trade, Facilitate China Trade

Media

Podcasts

How is China reacting to President William Lai's inauguration?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Short-term China-Taiwan Relations

Assessments

Japan

North Korea

South Korea

Russia

Global Elections

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Snapshots

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Kenya

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Europe

Spain

Ireland

Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

What do China's recent Taiwan Strait initiatives mean for Taiwan's security?

Essential Geopolitics: China's New Initiatives in the Taiwan Strait

Kinmen Island, the main island of Taiwan's Kinmen archipelago, is seen in the distance from a beach in the southeastern Chinese city of Xiamen on Jan. 12, 2024.

Beijing is seizing on the death of two Chinese fishermen to exercise greater control around Taiwan's Kinmen islands, raising the risk of more dangerous encounters in the area.

A Deadly Incident at Sea Heightens China-Taiwan Tensions

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Senegal

Egypt

Germany

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

A supporter of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) waves Taiwan's national flag during a campaign rally at the Sanhe Market in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Jan. 10, 2024.

Energy

Taiwan's latest elections yielded a divided parliament that will impede military readiness and economic reform, while the country's growing diplomatic isolation will keep it reliant on outside powers for security and development.

Taiwan's Hung Legislature Portends More Policy Gridlock and External Dependencies

Taiwanese President-Elect, William Lai (left), celebrates alongside his running mate (right) during a rally at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei, Taiwan, on Jan. 13, 2024, after winning the presidential election.

The ruling party's continued control of Taiwan's presidency will see Beijing steadily escalate its economic and military coercion against Taipei, presenting a low risk of blockades or an invasion of Taiwan's outlying islands. 

Taiwan's Election Yields Four More Years of DPP Rule -- and China Tensions

Yemen

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Houthis during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel in November 2023 at an unnamed location in the Red Sea.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The Possible Houthi Reply to U.S.-U.K. Strikes, Taiwan's General Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

France

Poland

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Brazil

Iran

United Arab Emirates

Belgium

Leaders at the closing day of the BRICS Summit on Aug. 24, 2023, in Johannesburg. On Jan. 1, BRICS will admit Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after agreeing at an August summit to expand its membership.

The Weekly Rundown: Taiwan's Election Media Blackout, BRICS Expansion

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan, China: Region Braces for Rains, Typhoon Gaemi Floods, Logistics Disruptions

China, Taiwan: Chinese Coast Guard Detains Taiwanese Fishing Boat

China: Beijing Threatens Death Penalty Against 'Taiwan Independence Diehards'

Philippines: Poll Finds Strong Support for Military Action, Modernization

China: Shipping Rates Hit Two-Year High Amid Seasonal Demand Spike, Geopolitical Uncertainty

Taiwan: Chinese Tariffs on 134 Goods a Shot at Taipei's New Leader

Guatemala, China: China Restricts Some Guatemalan Exports

Taiwan: Legislative Reforms Pass, May Impede U.S. Trade, Facilitate China Trade

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