Snapshots

Thailand

A car with members of Thailand's opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), including leader Pita Limjaroenrat, drives through a large crowd of supporters during a rally in Bangkok on May 15, 2023, following the MFP's victory in the general election. 

Military & Security

Politics

As expected, Thailand's two main opposition parties dominated the May 14 general election. But the military establishment will seek to leverage its institutional controls to retain power.

Despite Their Electoral Victory, Thai Opposition Parties Will Struggle To Form a Government

Assessments

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China

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Russia

Supporters of AKP and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 12, 2023, in Istanbul.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A G-7 Summit in Japan, Significant Elections in Turkey

Thai flags March 4, 2023, on the side of the parliament complex in Bangkok. Thailand is headed for early elections that favor continued military-backed rule, but a resurgent opposition portends a highly contentious election process, potential unrest, and implications for alignment between China and the United States.

Thailand is headed for early elections that favor continued military-backed rule, but a resurgent opposition portends a highly contentious election process and potential unrest.

Thailand Braces for Potential Chaos as Early Elections Loom

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Vietnam

A Chinese coast guard ship sails past anchored Philippine fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea, on Feb. 3, 2023.

A binding code of conduct in the South China Sea remains unlikely, despite the resumption of negotiations between claimant states.

With No Deal in Sight, South China Sea Claimants Continue to Militarize

Egypt

Israel

United Kingdom

Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani (2 L) speaks during the G-20 Finance Ministers Meeting on July 15, 2022, in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia. Indonesia will host the annual G-20 summit on Nov. 15-16.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Indonesia Hosts a G-20 Summit, Netanyahu Seeks to Build a New Government

U.S.-China Relations

People visit the Grand Palace in Bangkok, Thailand, in June 2020, as it reopened for visitors amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. 

Economics

China's strict COVID-19 restrictions are unlikely to ease anytime soon, depriving the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand of billions of dollars of revenue once generated by Chinese tourists.

A Prolonged Absence of Chinese Visitors Will Plague Southeast Asia's Economic Recovery

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India

A photo taken on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo shows U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attending a video call with leaders from countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

The narrow scope of the initiative will limit its effectiveness in achieving Washington’s goal of countering China’s regional rise.

The Stumbling Blocks of Biden's New Indo-Pacific Economic Bloc

Supply Chains

U.S. President Joe Biden (R) and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (C) and Samsung personnel on May 20, 2022, at the Samsung Electronic Pyeongtaek Campus in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. U.S. President Joe Biden will arrive May 24 in Japan, where he is expected to provide details about the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden's Asia-Pacific Trip Continues, Turkey's Foreign Minister Visits Israel

Israel's Survival Strategy

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On Security

France

Rising competition with the West and more programs designed to counter China's BRI will prompt Beijing to expand its intelligence-collection efforts.

China's Cyberespionage Will Remain Robust and Expansive in Southeast Asia

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Afghanistan

Pakistan

An Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in the Saudi city of Mecca on Aug. 13, 2012. The foreign ministers of some of the OIC's 57 member states will meet Dec. 17 in Islamabad, Pakistan, to discuss how to support stability in Afghanistan following the 2021 Taliban takeover of the country.

The War in Afghanistan

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Southeast Asia, the ECB Strategizes 2022 Policy

Soldiers stand guard on a blockaded road to Myanmar's parliament in Naypyidaw on Feb. 1, 2021, after the military detained the country's de facto leader and president in a coup. 

China in Transition

A severe crackdown or extreme systemic changes may force Washington to isolate Myanmar, opening the door for increased Chinese influence. 

Myanmar’s Coup Will Further Test the U.S.'s Ability to Counterbalance China

COVID-19

Security

Brazil

Mexico

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Boxes of vials of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine sit in a refrigerator at Ashton Gate Stadium in the English city of Bristol on Jan. 9, 2021. Those involved in the distribution and administration of vaccines should be aware of the potential to exploit the world's newest and highly coveted commodity.

Those involved in the distribution and administration of vaccines should be aware of the potential to exploit the world's newest and highly coveted commodity.

The Criminal Threat to the COVID-19 Vaccination Process

Fiji

Taiwan

Cyber

Earth Longzhi, a subgroup of Chinese state-sponsored hacking group APT41, has reemerged after months of dormancy, according to a May 2 report by Japanese multinational cybersecurity firm Trend Micro.

China: New Report Highlights Return of Hacking Group Earth Longzhi

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha dissolved the country's House of Representatives (the lower house of the National Assembly) via a decree endorsed by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, the Bangkok Post reported on March 20.

Thailand: House Dissolved, Clearing the Way for Early Election

Kao Kim Hourn, the secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said the bloc and Japan will elevate ties to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" before or during a special summit celebrating 50 years of relations in December, Kyodo News reported March 8.

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

A subsidiary of Thailand's state-backed energy giant PTT postponed a project worth $2 billion in natural gas investments in Myanmar's M3 block, citing the "local situation in Myanmar," Nikkei Asia reported Feb. 28.

Thailand, Myanmar: Thai Energy Giant Postpones Investment in Myanmar

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha indicated that he will dissolve the House of Representatives before its term naturally expires on March 23, Reuters reported Feb. 17.

Thailand: Prime Minister Indicates He Will Dissolve House Early

The Thai Cabinet approved a decree postponing the implementation of two articles of the Act on the Prevention and Suppression of Torture and Enforced Disappearances until Oct. 1, Benar News reported Feb. 14.

Thailand: Government Delays Implementing Anti-Torture and Disappearance Law Until After Election

Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's junta chief, and Gen. Chalermpol Srisawat, Thailand's military chief of staff, met in Myanmar for three days of talks, Benar News reported Jan. 19.

Renewed Top-Level Military Meetings Highlight Bangkok's Role in Myanmar

Thailand's House of Representatives adjourned after a record-low 25-minute session owing to a lack of a quorum, the Thai Newsroom reported Jan. 18.

Thailand: House Nearly Paralyzed in Wake of Party Hopping

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Located in Southeast Asia, Thailand is bordered by Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia. The core of modern Thailand lies on the flat, rich lowlands in the central Chao Phraya River basin. This basin is one of the world's most fertile agricultural areas, growing mostly rice and fruits. As a result, it became a political and economic center, where Bangkok, the country's capital, was founded.    Thailand’s strategic location between Indochina and the Andaman and South China seas, along with its agricultural resources, has historically made it a target of foreign invasion. Therefore, Thailand’s main geographic challenge is protecting its core from invaders while consolidating power in its diverse outlying regions.    Protected in the north by mountains and the Khorat Plateau, Thailand’s biggest external threats have come through the Tenasserim mountain range from Myanmar or from Cambodia to the east. But Thailand’s central location also helped prevent its colonization, as the French and British used it as a buffer between each other's empires.    Thailand’s geography has also presented internal challenges. In the northwest, mountainous terrain has prevented the area from being easily controlled, fostering political struggles in modern times between these provinces and Bangkok. Annexed in the early 20th century, southern Thailand has an ethnically Malay, Muslim majority and continues to resist Bangkok through low-level insurgency and violence. Although Thailand's size, location and arable land allow it to exert influence regionally, its unwieldy periphery and occasionally hostile neighbors will continue to present it with challenges.

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

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SITUATION REPORTS

China: New Report Highlights Return of Hacking Group Earth Longzhi

Thailand: House Dissolved, Clearing the Way for Early Election

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

Thailand, Myanmar: Thai Energy Giant Postpones Investment in Myanmar

Thailand: Prime Minister Indicates He Will Dissolve House Early

Thailand: Government Delays Implementing Anti-Torture and Disappearance Law Until After Election

Renewed Top-Level Military Meetings Highlight Bangkok's Role in Myanmar

Thailand: House Nearly Paralyzed in Wake of Party Hopping

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