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Graphics

Chinese maritime militia vessels float near the Philippine-controlled island of Thitu, which Filipinos call Pag-asa, in the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea on March 9, 2023.

Military & Security

Recent incidents in the South China Sea illustrate the competing interests of claimant states amid increasing militarization.

A Look at Recent Incidents in the South China Sea

Assessments

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Thailand

A Chinese coast guard ship sails past anchored Philippine fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea, on Feb. 3, 2023.

Politics

A binding code of conduct in the South China Sea remains unlikely, despite the resumption of negotiations between claimant states.

With No Deal in Sight, South China Sea Claimants Continue to Militarize

Vietnam's new president Vo Van Thuong is sworn in during an extraordinary meeting in the National Assembly in Hanoi, Vietnam, on March 2, 2023. 

Thuong's appointment solidifies a power shift in Hanoi following his predecessor's forced exit, as General Secretary Trong tries to reorient the state bureaucracy under the auspices of the Communist Party.

What to Make of Vietnam's New President

Serbia

Kosovo

India

Officials stand near flags of participating countries and organizations at the venue where the second meeting of the G-20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies under India's G-20 presidency has begun Feb. 22, 2023, in Bengaluru, India.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Serbian and Kosovar Leaders Meet, G-20 Meetings Reveal Divergent Global Priorities

Then-Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc arrives at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok, Thailand, on Nov. 18, 2022. 

Phuc’s resignation marks an escalation of the Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign and portends the strengthening of national security elites.

Vietnam's President Is Forced Out. What Now? 

Senegal

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United States

Japan

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Germany

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Ukraine

Two Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks of the German armed forces participate in the NATO Iron Wolf military exercises on Oct. 27, 2022, in Pabrade, Lithuania. On Jan. 20, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group of military equipment donors to Ukraine will meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where a breakthrough is expected regarding the supply of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine. 

The Weekly Rundown: Germany Discusses Tanks for Ukraine, the Lunar New Year Approaches

A photo taken on Oct. 14, 2022, shows cranes picking up coal at a port of the Pha Lai thermal power plant in Vietnam's Hai Duong province. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Western countries are pouring billions of dollars into Vietnam's clean energy transition to mitigate the risk of the country relying on coal to meet its growing power demands.

The West Gives Vietnam's Climate Goals a Shot in the Arm -- And a Shot at Success

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Vietnam's Communist Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong (right) wave during a welcoming ceremony at the presidential palace in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Nov. 12, 2017. 

Economics

 A recent meeting between the countries' leaders portends a slight improvement in bilateral relations. But without security guarantees, Hanoi will still keep Beijing at arm's length.

A High-Level Visit Showcases China and Vietnam's Complicated Relationship

Australia

New Zealand

A photo taken on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo shows U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attending a video call with leaders from countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

The narrow scope of the initiative will limit its effectiveness in achieving Washington’s goal of countering China’s regional rise.

The Stumbling Blocks of Biden's New Indo-Pacific Economic Bloc

Supply Chains

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Security

France

Rising competition with the West and more programs designed to counter China's BRI will prompt Beijing to expand its intelligence-collection efforts.

China's Cyberespionage Will Remain Robust and Expansive in Southeast Asia

Guidance

Russia

Qatar

Turkey

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with U.S. President Joe Biden on June 16, 2021, at a summit at the Villa La Grange, in Geneva. U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely participate in a video call early next week amid rising tensions in eastern Ukraine.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden and Putin Hold a Video Conference, Germany Has a New Chancellor

COVID-19

Iran

Quarterly

Forecasts

The fourth quarter will see countries with low vaccination rates explore options to "live with COVID" rather than continue severe lockdowns in order to enable economic recovery.

2021 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Agriculture

At least 10 Chinese vessels and five Vietnamese vessels have been trying to tail each other and cut each other off near the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea from May 10-14 following Vietnam's announcement earlier in May that it would expand oil drilling near the islands, the South China Morning Post reported on May 14.

China, Vietnam: Countries Conduct Days-Long South China Sea Standoff

Kao Kim Hourn, the secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said the bloc and Japan will elevate ties to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" before or during a special summit celebrating 50 years of relations in December, Kyodo News reported March 8.

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

The Central Committee of Vietnam's Communist Party nominated Vo Van Thuong, the deputy chair of the party's anti-corruption committee, to become the country's next president, Reuters reported March 1.

Vietnam: Party Acolyte to Be Next State President

Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc resigned under pressure after being found accountable for "violations and wrongdoing" in a supervisory capacity, making him the first Vietnamese president ousted from office, Viet Nam News reported on Jan. 17.

Vietnam: President Resigns Amid Anti-Corruption Drive

The Vietnamese Communist Party's Central Inspection Committee determined that the entire Ministry of Foreign Affairs is culpable for the 2021 repatriation flight scandal, state-run Thanh Nien reported Dec. 21.

Vietnam: Entire Foreign Ministry Held Culpable for Repatriation Flight Corruption Scandal

Indonesia and Vietnam agreed to an official demarcation of their maritime exclusive economic zones (EEZ), Antara reported Dec. 22.

Indonesia, Vietnam: Countries Reach EEZ Demarcation Agreement

A Dec. 14 Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative report documented via satellite imagery that Vietnam increased land reclamation in the contested Spratly Islands by 420 acres in 2022 at nine sites, bringing the total to 540 acres.

Vietnam: Government Conducts Massive Land Reclamation in Spratly Islands

Vietnam opened its inaugural International Defense Expo 2022, henceforth to be held biannually, and the three-day event involves 174 exhibitors from 30 countries, the Hanoi Times reported Dec. 8.

Vietnam: Arms Expo Emphasizes Diversification, Modernization and Domestic Production

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Mongolia

Vietnam is located on the easternmost edge of the Indochinese Peninsula, with China to the north and Laos and Cambodia to the west. Its more than 2,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Gulf of Tonkin, the South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. These seas create both direct access to the wider Pacific Ocean and a critical buffer to Vietnam's long and narrow land territory.    Modern Vietnam consists of two geographic and population cores — the Red River Delta in the north, home to the capital of Hanoi, and the Mekong River Delta in the southern lowlands, where Ho Chi Minh City sits.  These cores are separated by over 1,600 miles and connected by a thin and largely mountainous coastal spine, only around 30 miles wide at its narrowest point.    Despite mountains and jungles, the northern Vietnamese core has a long history of invasion by forces from China. This almost continuous pressure from the north in part forced Vietnam's early rulers to expand the country's boundaries, first southward, to the Mekong River Delta, and then westward, into present day Laos and Cambodia.    Historically and today, the natural geographic separation of Vietnam's northern and southern cores has exacerbated the two regions' social, cultural and political divide — leaving the country vulnerable to invasion by foreign powers, whether Chinese, French or American.    Vietnam’s primary geographic challenge is to secure buffer space both on land and sea. Today, Vietnam's need for space and security in the South China Seas pits it against China, also in the throes of maritime expansion, thus adding a new dimension to Vietnam's longstanding struggle to carve space for itself against its larger northern neighbor.  

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SITUATION REPORTS

China, Vietnam: Countries Conduct Days-Long South China Sea Standoff

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

Vietnam: Party Acolyte to Be Next State President

Vietnam: President Resigns Amid Anti-Corruption Drive

Vietnam: Entire Foreign Ministry Held Culpable for Repatriation Flight Corruption Scandal

Indonesia, Vietnam: Countries Reach EEZ Demarcation Agreement

Vietnam: Government Conducts Massive Land Reclamation in Spratly Islands

Vietnam: Arms Expo Emphasizes Diversification, Modernization and Domestic Production

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