Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Estonia

Poland

Belarus

Russia

Military & Security

Finland will close its last remaining open border crossing with Russia for at least two weeks following an uptick in illegal migration attempts that Finnish officials say Russia is facilitating in order to destabilize the country after joining NATO earlier this year, AP reported Nov. 29. 

Finland, Russia: Finland Closes Entire Border With Russia Over Migrant Concerns

Ukraine

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A spokesperson of the Ukrainian army's eastern forces confirmed reports that mercenaries affiliated with Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group have returned to Ukraine, near Bakhmut, Meduza reported on Sept. 27.

Ukraine, Russia: Multiple Sources Claim Wagner Returns to Bakhmut

Social Issues

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree prohibiting Belarusian diplomatic missions from issuing, changing and renewing passports for citizens of the country living abroad, AP reported Sept. 5.

Belarus: Belarusians Will No Longer Be Able To Renew Their Passport Abroad

Poland, Lithuania and Latvia said they will close their borders with Belarus completely if a "critical incident" involving Russian Wagner mercenaries or Belarusian troops occurs, Reuters reported on Aug. 28.

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus: Poland and Baltics Threaten to Shut Belarusian Border

Satellite images show that since Aug. 1, the Wagner mercenary camp in Asipovichy, Belarus, has reduced in size by about one-third, RFE/RL reported Aug. 24.

Belarus, Russia: Images Show Wagner Camp in Belarus Has Shrunk in Recent Weeks

Lithuania will close two out of six border crossing points with Belarus due to "geopolitical circumstances," Reuters reported on Aug. 16.

Europe: Baltics Tighten Security at Borders With Belarus

China

Lithuania's Transport Ministry is moving forward with plans to temporarily close two of the country's six border checkpoints with Belarus by Aug.15, LRT reported Aug. 9.

Lithuania, Belarus: Vilnius to Close One-third of its Border with Belarus Amid Wagner Threat

The Belarusian Defense Ministry claimed members of its Special Operations Forces had begun training with members of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group who have arrived in the country in recent days, The Moscow Times reported on July 20.

Russia, Belarus: Wagner Forces Begin Training Belarusian Military

Assessments

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.

Economics

The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly is poised to deepen Belarus' ties with Russia while also laying the groundwork for President Lukashenko's eventual succession process.

In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Turkey

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Georgia

India

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Media

Podcasts

What we know about the plane crash that likely killed Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin.


Essential Geopolitics: Prigozhin's Possible Death, the Future of the Wagner Group and Geopolitics in Belarus

Snapshots

A woman sits by the entrance to the GUM department store in central Minsk on February 14, 2023.

Though Belarus is showing economic recovery in the short term, a number of structural issues will undermine its long-term growth prospects.

Belarus' Tentative Recovery Won’t Ensure Future Growth -– Or Kick-Start the Opposition

Romania

A Polish soldier stands by anti-tank obstacles by the metal wall constructed at the Belarussian border in Bialowieza, Poland, on July 08, 2023. 

In Romania's case, Russian aggression is more likely to occur by accident. But in Poland, such aggression would have higher chance of escalation because it'd likely be by design.

Russia's Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

Sudan

Libya

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Members of Wagner Group on June 24, 2023, sit on a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don.

The dismantlement of Russia's Wagner Group will strengthen the Kremlin's ability to handle the war and conduct personnel changes that could impact Russia's strategy in Ukraine in the long run.

Putin Uses Prigozhin's 'Betrayal' to Strengthen His Grip on Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2022. 

Moscow's grip on Minsk will likely tighten in the years ahead, threatening Belarusian President Lukashenko and his country's sovereignty.

What's Ahead for Belarus-Russia Integration?

Brazil

Sweden

Most Western insurers for marine traffic will stop providing coverage for war-related risks in Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian waters effective Jan. 1, 2023. The drop in coverage will result in some tankers refraining from sailing in Russian waters, even in Russia's Far East, or in tankers operating without insurance.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Insurers Drop Marine War Coverage in Russia, Sweden Takes Over the EU Presidency

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Argentina

Iran

Hong Kong SAR, China

Germany

France

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Peru

Tunisia

Europe

Supporters of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo clash with riot police in Lima on Dec. 11, 2022, during a demonstration demanding Castillo's release and early legislative elections. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Visits Belarus, Peru Sets an Election Date Amid Protests

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends joint exercises of Russian and Belarusian forces at a firing range near a town outside Minsk on Feb. 17, 2022. 

Recent developments in Belarus are raising concerns that Russia may again try to seize Ukraine's capital -- potentially with the help of Belarusian troops. 

In Ukraine, a Russia-Belarus Troop Deployment Fuels Fears of a Northern Incursion

Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe. The country is almost entirely flat with little in terms of geographic barriers or protective features. Belarus' borders to the east with Russia and to the west with Poland and Lithuania are virtually wide open. One exception though is the Pripet Marshes on its southern border with Ukraine. Due to the lack of these barriers and the presence of more powerful states in the region, Belarus has been historically a difficult independent state to sustain.    Belarus sits in the North European Plain, the geopolitical superhighway of Europe. This is the area that has historically been the prominent invasion route of European powers like Germany and France into Russia and vice versa. Russia took control of Belarus from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 18th century, incorporating it into the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.     Belarus was subject to Nazi occupation during WWII, in which the country lost more than 25 percent of its population, but then was reincorporated into the Soviet Union with the Germans’ defeat.The 20 years of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union is the longest Belarus has known in its modern history, but it still in many ways serves as a de facto buffer state between Russia and Europe.    Belarus was one of the most industrialized republics of the Soviet Union, and it still maintains a large industrial base centered in its capital city of Minsk. Belarus has fertile agricultural lands and is one of the world's leading producers of potash and other fertilizers. It is also a key trade and transit hub for Russian energy to Europe, making the country an enduring focus of competition between Russia and the West.

SITUATION REPORTS

Finland, Russia: Finland Closes Entire Border With Russia Over Migrant Concerns

Ukraine, Russia: Multiple Sources Claim Wagner Returns to Bakhmut

Belarus: Belarusians Will No Longer Be Able To Renew Their Passport Abroad

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus: Poland and Baltics Threaten to Shut Belarusian Border

Belarus, Russia: Images Show Wagner Camp in Belarus Has Shrunk in Recent Weeks

Europe: Baltics Tighten Security at Borders With Belarus

Lithuania, Belarus: Vilnius to Close One-third of its Border with Belarus Amid Wagner Threat

Russia, Belarus: Wagner Forces Begin Training Belarusian Military

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support