Assessments

China

Belarus

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2022. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Moscow's grip on Minsk will likely tighten in the years ahead, threatening Belarusian President Lukashenko and his country's sovereignty.

What's Ahead for Belarus-Russia Integration?

Brazil

Sweden

Ukraine

Most Western insurers for marine traffic will stop providing coverage for war-related risks in Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian waters effective Jan. 1, 2023. The drop in coverage will result in some tankers refraining from sailing in Russian waters, even in Russia's Far East, or in tankers operating without insurance.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Insurers Drop Marine War Coverage in Russia, Sweden Takes Over the EU Presidency

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Argentina

Iran

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Germany

France

India

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Peru

Tunisia

Europe

Supporters of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo clash with riot police in Lima on Dec. 11, 2022, during a demonstration demanding Castillo's release and early legislative elections. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Visits Belarus, Peru Sets an Election Date Amid Protests

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends joint exercises of Russian and Belarusian forces at a firing range near a town outside Minsk on Feb. 17, 2022. 

Recent developments in Belarus are raising concerns that Russia may again try to seize Ukraine's capital -- potentially with the help of Belarusian troops. 

In Ukraine, a Russia-Belarus Troop Deployment Fuels Fears of a Northern Incursion

Guidance

United States

Black smoke rises from a military airport in Chuguyev near Kharkiv on Feb. 24, 2022. Russia's decision to launch a large military operation in Ukraine early Feb. 24, hitting targets across the country, including the capital Kyiv, will see Western countries impose significant sanctions on Russia.

Cyber

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Russia's apparent goal of overthrowing the Ukrainian government suggests that the military actions could last for several days and include a ground incursion to take Kyiv, which could significantly increase the number of casualties.

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Cause Western Sanctions, but Not Intervention

The Ukraine Conflict

Costa Rica

Australia

Fiji

Japan

United Arab Emirates

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) speaks with his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, on Feb. 3, 2022, in Minsk, Belarus. NATO expects 30,000 Russian troops to arrive in Belarus by the Feb. 10 start of the second phase of the "Allied Resolve" exercise, the most Russian troops present in the country since the Cold War era.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Australia for a Quad Meeting, Russia and Belarus Begin Joint Exercises

Iran's Arc of Influence

U.S.-China Relations

The Delovoy Tsentr station of the Moscow Central Ring, a commuter rail line circling the Russian capital, on April 8, 2020. Belarusian hacktivist group Cyber Partisans claimed in a Jan. 24 tweet that it had carried out a ransomware attack against Belarusian Railway because of the railway's use in moving Russian troops and military hardware into the country for Feb. 10-20 joint exercises.

Stratfor Threat Lens

The incident highlight hacktivists' growing use of ransomware and encryption, a trend that will likely emerge in Western countries.

Belarusian Hacktivists Claim Ransomware Attack on Nation's Railways

On Security

Uganda

El Salvador

Nicaragua

A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

Security

Kazakhstan

Protesters rally against a hike in fuel prices in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on Jan. 5, 2022. 

The violent political unrest has discredited Kazakhstan's 2019 power transition, casting doubt on the viability of similar scenarios for Russia and Belarus's own succession plans.

Mass Protests in Kazakhstan Reverberate Across Eurasia

Mexico

Venezuela

United Kingdom

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Afghanistan

A compilation of four photos (from left to right) shows a COVID-19 vaccine, U.S. President Joe Biden, the logo of the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei, and a stock market sign. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2021 Annual Forecast as 2022 Approaches

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) shakes hands with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 13, 2021. 

Lukashenko’s steps toward recognizing the disputed peninsula as Russian will severely harm relations with Kyiv and contribute to rising tensions around the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Belarus' Changing Tone on Crimea Portends Stronger Russian Backing and Strained Ukrainian Ties

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko concluded two days of talks by holding a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, where they discussed the fulfillment of Union State integration programs under their 2021-2023 agreement, The Washington Post reported on April 6.

Russia, Belarus: Putin and Lukashenko Hold Defense and Economic Integration Talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to an unspecified location in Belarus and that the construction of storage units in Belarus for the weapons would be completed on July 1, the Financial Times reported on March 26.

Russia, Belarus: Russia to Deploy Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus

The Belarusian Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian S-300 missile over its western Brest region and published a photo of what it said were parts of it lying in an empty field, the Moscow Times reported Dec. 29. 

Belarus, Ukraine: Ukrainian S-300 Missile Reportedly Shot Down in Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other Russian government officials held integration talks with their Belarusian counterparts in Minsk, Reuters reported Dec. 19.

Russia, Belarus: Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov in Minsk for Integration Talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin will make his first visit to Belarus since 2019 for formal meetings with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko and the Belarusian government, Bloomberg reported Dec. 16.

Russia, Belarus: Putin to Meet With Lukashenko in Belarus

Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukraine's armed forces, said one of the Ukrainian army's main tasks was preparing for a Russian winter offensive, which Ukraine's political and military leadership believed would commence by March, The Economist reported Dec. 15.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Army Commander Says Russia Is Preparing Winter Offensive 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he agreed to deploy a joint contingent of Russian and Belarusian forces to the Ukrainian border in response to alleged threats from Ukraine, Reuters reported Oct. 10.

Belarus, Russia: Joint Contingent to Deploy to Ukrainian Border

The Ukrainian army's General Staff evaluated the threat of Belarus joining the Russia-Ukraine war in 1-2 days on Russia's side as high, Ukrayinska Pravda reported March 20.

Belarus, Ukraine, Russia: Belarus Likely to Join Russia-Ukraine War This Week

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Armenia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Iraq

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Burundi

Finland

Nepal

Cameroon

Canada

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Sri Lanka

Central African Republic

Colombia

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Chad

Indonesia

Libya

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Cote d'Ivoire

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe. The country is almost entirely flat with little in terms of geographic barriers or protective features. Belarus' borders to the east with Russia and to the west with Poland and Lithuania are virtually wide open. One exception though is the Pripet Marshes on its southern border with Ukraine. Due to the lack of these barriers and the presence of more powerful states in the region, Belarus has been historically a difficult independent state to sustain.    Belarus sits in the North European Plain, the geopolitical superhighway of Europe. This is the area that has historically been the prominent invasion route of European powers like Germany and France into Russia and vice versa. Russia took control of Belarus from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 18th century, incorporating it into the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.     Belarus was subject to Nazi occupation during WWII, in which the country lost more than 25 percent of its population, but then was reincorporated into the Soviet Union with the Germans’ defeat.The 20 years of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union is the longest Belarus has known in its modern history, but it still in many ways serves as a de facto buffer state between Russia and Europe.    Belarus was one of the most industrialized republics of the Soviet Union, and it still maintains a large industrial base centered in its capital city of Minsk. Belarus has fertile agricultural lands and is one of the world's leading producers of potash and other fertilizers. It is also a key trade and transit hub for Russian energy to Europe, making the country an enduring focus of competition between Russia and the West.

The Politics of Pipelines

Echoes of the Cold War

Female

Male

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to deliver his annual state of the nation on Feb. 21, 2023, in Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin Is Reelected and Remains Firmly in Power

Russia Does Not Hold a Presidential Election, Putin Remains President

Putin Is Removed From Office by Hard-liners

Putin is Removed by Forces Seeking De-escalation

What Is the State of the Russian Political System at the End of March 2024?

Poland

Ukrainian rescuers work Jan. 9, 2023, at a local market in Shevchenkove village, Kharkiv region, after a Russian missile strike. The Russia-Ukraine war will likely continue through 2023.

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Belarus: Putin and Lukashenko Hold Defense and Economic Integration Talks

Russia, Belarus: Russia to Deploy Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus

Belarus, Ukraine: Ukrainian S-300 Missile Reportedly Shot Down in Belarus

Russia, Belarus: Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov in Minsk for Integration Talks

Russia, Belarus: Putin to Meet With Lukashenko in Belarus

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Army Commander Says Russia Is Preparing Winter Offensive

Belarus, Russia: Joint Contingent to Deploy to Ukrainian Border

Belarus, Ukraine, Russia: Belarus Likely to Join Russia-Ukraine War This Week

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