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France

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Hungary

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Science & Technology

The European Commission recommended reducing the European Union's net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, Reuters reported Feb. 6. 

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

European Union member states unanimously agreed to a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) financial support package for Ukraine as part of their joint budget through 2027, for which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lifted his veto on the initiative, Reuters reported Feb. 1.

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Unanimously Agree to New 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Kyiv

Bulgaria and Romania have reached an agreement with Austria to join Europe's passport-free Schengen area for air and sea travel starting March 2024, Reuters reported Dec. 28, citing Romania's interior ministry. 

Romania, Bulgaria: Romania and Bulgaria to Join Europe's Schengen Area For Air and Sea Travel in March 2024

Russia

Economics

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees authorizing German energy giant Wintershall Dea and Austrian OMV to be stripped of multibillion dollar stakes in oil and gas extraction projects in Russia's Arctic, Reuters reported on Dec. 20.

Russia: Putin Authorizes First Forced Sale of Foreign Business

Negotiators from EU member states and the European Parliament reached a preliminary agreement to overhaul the bloc's asylum and migration rules, Reuters reported on Dec. 20.

EU: Bloc's Institutions Reach Agreements on New Asylum and Migration Rules

The European Union is "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to meet most of its 2030 green objectives, according to the latest report by the European Environment Agency (EEA) published Dec. 18.

EU: Bloc to Miss Most of its 2030 Climate Goals

The outgoing Dutch government agreed to drop its veto against Bulgaria joining Europe's passport-free Schengen zone, Reuters reported on Dec. 15, citing a letter to parliament from State Secretary for Justice and Security Eric van der Burg.

Netherlands, Bulgaria: Outgoing Dutch Government Lifts Veto on Bulgaria's Schengen Membership

Georgia

The European Council voted to grant EU candidate status to Georgia, and both government officials and opposition politicians in Georgia praised the decision, Civil Georgia reported on Dec. 14. 

Georgia: European Commission Recommends Georgia for EU Candidate Status

Assessments

United Kingdom

A photo taken on Jan. 20, 2024, shows cars driving by campaign billboard posters in Sao Pedro do Estoril, Portugal, ahead of the country's March 10 parliamentary elections. 

Social Issues

Of the various European countries holding elections this year, Portugal, Belgium, Austria, Romania and the U.K.'s votes have the potential to yield the most drastic leadership and policy changes.

Previewing Europe's 2024 National Elections

Snapshots

United States

China

Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

Cyber

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

An EU sign is seen at a Romanian border crossing.

Bulgaria and Romania have set out to join the EU's passport-free zone by the year's end, but Austrian and Dutch skepticism will likely keep delaying their membership and the associated economic benefits.

The Challenges Facing Bulgaria and Romania's Schengen Bids

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

Solar panels on Aug. 9, 2023, in Neuss, Germany.

Resistance to environmental initiatives in Europe will likely continue beyond the 2024 EU elections, portending less ambitious climate targets and greater protectionism.

Europe Faces a Less Ambitious Environmental Agenda

On Security

The director of Austria's intelligence agency (left) and the president of Vienna's state police hold a press conference on a foiled Vienna pride parade attack on June 18, 2023. 

Military & Security

The latest disruption in Vienna shows that Western counterterrorism personnel remain vigilant, but a loss of focus over time will lead to gaps that terrorists may exploit in the future.

What the Foiled Vienna Pride Parade Plot Suggests About the Islamist Threat to the West

The Romanian and EU flags are seen at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium in February 2017.

Pushback from other EU members is impeding Bucharest's bid to join the passport-free zone, which would have both economic and political consequences for the country.

The Risks of Romania's Protracted Accession to the EU's Schengen Area

Passengers from London arrive at a Eurostar terminal in Paris on Dec. 16, 2021, before France imposed new travel restrictions to and from the United Kingdom in response to the omicron variant of COVID-19. 

COVID-19

Supply Chains

The Fate of the Eurozone

European Disintegration

Tourism and hospitality sectors will again be hit hardest, as governments prioritize protecting manufacturing and supply chains over business and leisure travel.

In Europe, Omicron Fears Spur More Travel Bans and Lockdowns

Guidance

Chile

Venezuela

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, during an official welcoming Oct. 15, 2019, in the Emirati capital's Al-Watan presidential palace. Mohammed will possibly meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Nov. 24 

Venezuela's Unraveling

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Lockdowns Return to Europe, an Emirati-Turkish Meeting

Egypt

Argentine President Alberto Fernandez speaks during a rally in Merlo, Argentina, on Nov. 11, 2021, ahead of the country’s upcoming midterm elections. 

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Midterm Elections in Argentina, a Virtual Biden-Xi Summit

Norway

Saudi Arabia

Emergency personnel on Oct. 31, 2020, in Lyon, France, at the scene of an attack on a Greek Orthodox priest. The continual reemergence of the Mohammed cartoon controversy suggests that this issue will remain an issue that motivates violence for years to come.

The Jihadist Wars

The continual reemergence of the Mohammed cartoon controversy suggests that this issue will remain an issue that motivates violence for years to come.

How Satirical Cartoons Have Become a Flashpoint for Violence in Europe and Abroad

A landlocked country in Central Europe, Austria's two main geographic features are the Alps - which give the country its mountainous landscape - and the Danube river - which flows through Austria's north on its way to the Black Sea. An important avenue for Austrian trade with Central and Eastern Europe, the Danube also runs through the country's capital city of Vienna.     Austria has traditionally been a Central European power, with areas of influence ranging from the Carpathians in the east to the Balkans in the south. From the 13th to the early 20th century, the Austrian Habsburg monarchy was a major political player in Europe. Though the Allies occupied Austria after World War II, the country managed regain full independence in 1955 after declaring neutrality. This allowed Vienna to position itself as bridge between the Soviet Union and the West during the Cold War. To this day, Austria remains a meeting point for world leaders and contains the headquarters of many international organizations.    Though Austrian influence over European affairs has diminished significantly since the end of the Hapsburg monarchy, the country joined the European in 1995 and still considers itself an interlocutor between Eastern and Western Europe. Austria has sought to rebuild its traditional sphere of influence over the territories that were once part of its empire, particularly through investment. As an export-oriented country, Austria is supportive of the European Union as long as it creates opportunities for trade and investment. However, Austria is not a founding member of the European project and is skeptical of the process of EU integration. Austria's main geopolitical challenge is therefore to preserve ties with its neighbors without jeopardizing its national sovereignty. 

SITUATION REPORTS

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Unanimously Agree to New 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Kyiv

Romania, Bulgaria: Romania and Bulgaria to Join Europe's Schengen Area For Air and Sea Travel in March 2024

Russia: Putin Authorizes First Forced Sale of Foreign Business

EU: Bloc's Institutions Reach Agreements on New Asylum and Migration Rules

EU: Bloc to Miss Most of its 2030 Climate Goals

Netherlands, Bulgaria: Outgoing Dutch Government Lifts Veto on Bulgaria's Schengen Membership

Georgia: European Commission Recommends Georgia for EU Candidate Status

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