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Demonstrators in Belgrade, Serbia, hold up Serbian flags and a photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 24, 2022, during a rally in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Military & Security

Politics

In the second part of this series, we explore China and Russia's interests in the Balkans and what their activities may mean for the region's long-term stability.

The Risk of Another Balkans War, Part 2: Russian and Chinese Influence

Greece

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NATO soldiers patrol a roadblock set up by ethnic Serbs near Zubin Potok, a town in northern Kosovo, on Aug. 1, 2022. 

Economics

Social Issues

Despite ethnically-tinged tensions between Kosovo and Serbia that most recently made the news, there appear to be numerous restraints on a potential return to widespread regional conflict. 

The Risk of Another Balkans War, Part 1: Placing Recent Flashpoints in Context

Assessments

United States

An external view of the building of the European Union in Brussels, Belgium. 

Environment, Science & Technology

European Disintegration

As COVID-19 forces the EU to remain focused on recovering (and not enlarging) its economy, candidate countries such as Serbia risk veering away from the reforms they had been pursuing to earn their place in the bloc.

What the Fading Promise of EU Accession Means for the Balkans

COVID-19

EU: Regional Blocs

The New Silk Road

Divided EU Foreign Policies

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

<p>To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

2019 Annual Forecast

2018 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

In the Western Balkans, two trigger points have the potential to set off widespread unrest: negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo to normalize their relations and a deal between Macedonia and Greece for the former to change its name.

Negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo and a Macedonian effort to appease Greece both could provide a spark that ignites political instability and ethnic violence in the region.

Why Efforts to Build Bridges Could Threaten Peace in the Western Balkans

2018 Second-Quarter Forecast

The National Assembly of Bosnia-Herzegovina's autonomous Serb-dominated Republika Srpska passed a law suspending recognition of the country's constitutional court's rulings, Reuters reported on June 27. 

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Republika Srpska's Lawmakers Pass Law Suspending Rulings From Central Constitutional Court

Finland

Sweden

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said he will instruct the country's permanent representative to NATO, ambassador Mario Nobilo, to vote against Finland and Sweden's accession at the June NATO summit in Madrid until an electoral law in Bosnia-Herzegovina is amended in favor of Bosnian Croats, Total Croatia News reported May 18.

Croatia: President Threatens to Veto Finland and Sweden's NATO Membership

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Instability in Central Asia

The European Union announced it is almost doubling the size of its peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported Feb. 24.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: EU Doubles Peacekeeping Force Amid Rising Separatist Sentiment

Security

The Ukraine Conflict

The parliament of Republika Srpska, one of the two entities that make up Bosnia and Herzegovina, voted on Feb. 10 to set up an independent judicial system outside of the Bosnia and Herzegovina legal system, with 45 votes in favor out of 63 votes cast in the 83-seat parliament, Reuters reported Feb. 10.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Republika Srpska's Parliament Votes to Form Parallel Legal System

The Fate of the Eurozone

Bosnian Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik is expected to be elected to Bosnia-Herzegovina's presidency with about 55 percent of the vote as counting continues following Oct. 7 elections, Euractiv reported.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Serb Nationalist to Win Election to Presidency

Czech Republic

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China in Transition

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov announced that Sofia will host the 2018 16+1 summit of Central and Eastern European countries and China, Euractiv reported Nov. 28.

Hungary: Bulgaria Announces It Will Host 2018 '16+1' Trade Summit

Bosnian Serbs have voted overwhelmingly to keep Jan. 9 as a national holiday in defiance of Bosnia-Herzegovina's Constitutional Court, BBC reported Sept. 25.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Serbs Vote To Keep Statehood Day In Referendum

Terrorism and Security

Thousands of Bosnian Serb demonstrators on May 14 came out into the streets of Banja Luka, the capital of the autonomous Republika Srpska, Reuters reported.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Rival Protests Break Out In Serb Region

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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<p>Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country in the Western Balkans surrounded by Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro. A small strip of land gives the country access to the Adriatic Sea. The capital and most populated city is Sarajevo. The country&#39;s mountainous geography and centuries of invasions have made it home to several ethnic and religious groups. After the collapse of the Western Roman Empire, waves of early Slavs, including Croats and Serbs, raided the Western Balkans in the sixth and early seventh centuries. A semi-independent state, the Banate of Bosnia, emerged in the mid-12th century, followed by a Bosnian kingdom in the late 14th century. The arrival of the Ottoman Empire in the mid-15th century was a turning point for Bosnia, because the Muslim population grew significantly. During this period, Bosnia was often a battleground between the Ottomans and the Habsburg Empire. Bosnia finally fell into Habsburg hands in the late 19th century, but its dominance would last only until the end of World War I. After World War II, Bosnia became a republic within the socialist Yugoslavia. The collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s was followed by severe violence among Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats; that conflict ended only after NATO intervention. The Dayton Accords of 1995 put an end to the violence, but they also created a complex political system. The agreements split Bosnia into two autonomous entities: the Republika Srpska, predominantly Serb, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, eminently Bosniak. At the federal level, the Bosniak, Serb and Croat communities share power through a rotating presidency. Bosnia&#39;s main challenge is to manage the internal forces that lead to fragmentation, but it also needs to develop efficient political and economic structures that allow the country to generate growth and create jobs.</p>

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Snapshots

The European Commission has a strategy to offer EU membership to a half-dozen countries in the Western Balkans, but it won't happen anytime soon. 

EU: Brussels Promises Membership To Six Countries, Someday

SITUATION REPORTS

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Republika Srpska's Lawmakers Pass Law Suspending Rulings From Central Constitutional Court

Croatia: President Threatens to Veto Finland and Sweden's NATO Membership

Bosnia and Herzegovina: EU Doubles Peacekeeping Force Amid Rising Separatist Sentiment

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Republika Srpska's Parliament Votes to Form Parallel Legal System

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Serb Nationalist to Win Election to Presidency

Hungary: Bulgaria Announces It Will Host 2018 '16+1' Trade Summit

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Serbs Vote To Keep Statehood Day In Referendum

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Rival Protests Break Out In Serb Region

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