France

Politics

The French government will present a new immigration law in early 2025 that would extend the period during which migrants can be detained in administrative centers while awaiting deportation if they received an order to leave the country, Le Monde reported on Oct. 14, citing a statement by government spokesperson Maud Bregeon.

France: Government To Propose Tougher Immigration Rules in 2025

Economics

Later on Oct. 10, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will present his 2025 budget proposal, which will contain significant tax hikes and spending cuts to reduce the deficit to 5% of gross domestic product in 2025 and aim to comply with the European Union’s 3% of GDP fiscal deficit rules by 2029 (a delay from 2027, as previously planned), Politico reported on Oct. 10. 

France: Government To Present Budget That Increases Taxes, Cuts Spending

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government survived a no-confidence motion in the National Assembly, France 24 reported on Oct. 8. 

France: Government Survives Left-Wing No-Confidence Motion

Vietnam

Military & Security

Vietnam and France upgraded bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, or CSP, Nikkei Asia reported on Oct. 8.

Vietnam, France: Hanoi Elevates Ties With Another Former Adversary

France's new Prime Minister Michel Barnier outlined his government's main objectives and policy priorities, indicating that the 2025 budget will include a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts to reduce the country's deficit, with updated targets aiming for a 5% deficit by 2025 and 3% by 2029 (instead of 2027 as the previous government planned), Le Monde reported on Oct. 1.

France: Spending Cuts and Tax Hikes To Plug Budget Deficit Amid Tougher Line on Migration

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's new Cabinet (which was announced on Sept. 21 and consists mostly of conservative and center-right politicians) met for the first time, AP reported on Sept. 23. 

France: New Cabinet Meets for First Time, Promises Austerity Measures

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier presented a list of proposed Cabinet ministers to President Emmanuel Macron following a deal between centrist and center-right lawmakers to form a new government, Le Monde reported on Sept. 19. 

France: Centrist and Center-Right Parties Strike Deal To Form New Government

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled her team of Commissioners, a press release by the Commission shows Sept. 17. 

EU: Von der Leyen Unveils New European Commission

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

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A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Cyber

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Snapshots

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

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The Geopolitics of Water

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The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

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Hungarian police officers check cars at the Nickelsdorf-Hegyeshalom border crossing on the Austrian-Hungarian border on March 18, 2020. 

Increasing levels of migration, terrorism activity and Russian aggression in Europe are driving Schengen countries to tighten their border controls, heralding a more spotty functioning of the passport-free travel zone.

Growing Border Controls Threaten Europe's Schengen Area

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a flag during a ceremony on Ukraine's Independence Day on Aug. 24, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Resume, Ukraine Observes Third Post-Invasion Independence Day

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Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune meets with France's President Emmanuel Macron at the Borgo Egnazia resort on the sideline of the Group of Seven summit in Savelletri, Apulia region, Italy, on June 13, 2024.

The likely reelection of President Tebboune will yield a nationalist approach to foreign policy in the short term and additional economic reforms, though a growing internal debt burden will challenge economic growth.

Algeria's Political and Economic Course Seems Set as President Tebboune Readies Himself for Another Term

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Yael Braun-Pivet, a French lawmaker for the ruling Renaissance party, delivers a speech after being reelected as National Assembly president following the third round of voting on July 18, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: France Resumes Political Horse-Trading, Blinken Returns to Middle East

India

Parc des Champions on July 4, 2024, at the foot of the Eiffel Tower at the Trocadero in Paris.

The Weekly Rundown: The Paris Olympics, Netanyahu Addresses Congress

French President Emmanuel Macron (center, in foreground) and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal review the troops during the Bastille Day military parade in Paris, France, on July 14, 2024.

A caretaker administration will guarantee the functioning of the state while complex government formation talks take place, but the appointment of a political government able to enact necessary fiscal measures will remain elusive.

The Powers and Limits of France's New Caretaker Government 

A French flag is waved during a rally following the projected results of the second round of France's legislative election, at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024.

Even if a new government is formed, it will be fragile and constantly at risk of collapse, impeding Paris' ability to pass needed economic reforms while sustaining the prospect of new elections after mid-2025.

France Keeps the Far Right at Bay, but a Hung Parliament Still Raises Political Risks

A banner reading "public services in danger, let's vote" on July 5 in Paris.

The Weekly Rundown: French Legislative Runoffs, a NATO Summit in Washington

<p>France is a country in Western Europe bound in the south by the Alps, Pyrenees Mountains and the Mediterranean Sea. To the west and north is the Atlantic Ocean, and on its eastern border lies the river Rhine and the low mountains of the Ardennes, Vosges and Jura. Mountains, rivers and seas help protect France at all points but one: the North European Plain. As a result, France&#39;s main geographic challenge is safeguarding its eastern border on the path of this historic invasion route. The lack of internal geographic barriers contributed to France&#39;s social cohesion, which in turn led France to become one of the world&#39;s first modern nation-states. The Beauce region represents France&#39;s core. Its navigable rivers, warm climate, sufficient rainfall and fertile soils have made France one of the world&#39;s leading agricultural powers. At the extreme northern border of the Beauce region, where the rivers Marne and Seine meet, lies Paris &mdash; France&#39;s economic and political center. Paris&#39; strategic location on these rivers gives it administrative control of trading routes from the Beauce region to the rest of France and Europe In modern times, the most existential threats to France have come from its powerful eastern neighbor, Germany. Between 1871 and 1945, France and Germany fought three major wars &mdash; all on the North European Plain. After World War II, France attempted to contain Germany largely through the creation of the European Union. The economic and political crisis plaguing Europe has put France&#39;s containment strategy into question.</p>

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The Fate of the Eurozone

European Disintegration

SITUATION REPORTS

France: Government To Propose Tougher Immigration Rules in 2025

France: Government To Present Budget That Increases Taxes, Cuts Spending

France: Government Survives Left-Wing No-Confidence Motion

Vietnam, France: Hanoi Elevates Ties With Another Former Adversary

France: Spending Cuts and Tax Hikes To Plug Budget Deficit Amid Tougher Line on Migration

France: New Cabinet Meets for First Time, Promises Austerity Measures

France: Centrist and Center-Right Parties Strike Deal To Form New Government

EU: Von der Leyen Unveils New European Commission

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