Poland

Politics

Poland's ruling parties -- Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) and its two coalition partners, the left-wing Lewica party and the center-right Third Way coalition -- are on track for a narrow victory in the first round of local elections held on April 7, Reuters reported on April 8. 

Poland: Pro-EU Government Parties to Secure Narrow Victory in Local Elections

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EU countries reached a compromise deal to extend tariff-free trade with Ukraine until June 2025 following a provisional agreement reached with the European Parliament the previous week that proposed reinstating tariffs on some agricultural imports from Ukraine in case of oversupply, Bloomberg reported on March 27.

EU: Member States Reach Compromise To Extend Free Trade With Ukraine

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Finland, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Poland and South Korea joined the U.S.-led international coalition against the proliferation and dissemination of spyware, according to a joint statement released by the White House on March 18. 

Cyberspace: Additional Countries Join International Anti-Spyware Coalition

Poland is considering temporarily closing its border to trade with Ukraine amid an ongoing blockade by Polish farmers protesting cheap influxes of Ukrainian agricultural products, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 28.

Poland, Ukraine: Poland May Temporarily Close its Border to Trade With Ukraine Amid Farmers' Protests

The European Union welcomed Poland's plan to restore the rule of law in the country, Reuters reported on Feb. 20.

Poland, EU: Brussels Welcomes Poland's Judicial Reform Plan

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The European Commission recommended reducing the European Union's net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, Reuters reported Feb. 6. 

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

European Union member states unanimously agreed to a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) financial support package for Ukraine as part of their joint budget through 2027, for which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lifted his veto on the initiative, Reuters reported Feb. 1.

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Unanimously Agree to New 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Kyiv

United States

Italy’s data protection authority notified U.S. technology company OpenAI that its generative artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT violates EU data privacy laws, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 29.

Italy: Watchdog Says ChatGPT Breaches EU Privacy Laws

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People attend an April 5, 2024, funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in an Israeli strike in Syria.

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation Against Israel, Polish Local Elections

Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (right) shake hands during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on Jan. 15, 2024. 

Growing tensions between the new government and key institutions still loyal to its predecessor will fuel political instability and may ultimately threaten Warsaw's plans to unlock frozen EU funds.

A Rough Power Transition Thrusts Poland Into a Political Crisis

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Snapshots

Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Posters for parliamentary candidates ahead of Poland's Oct. 10, 2023, election in Lodz, Poland.

A new centrist government would significantly improve relations with the European Union, allowing the country to continue playing an increasingly central role in the bloc.

Parliamentary Elections May Move Poland Closer to Brussels

Ecuador

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Israeli army Merkava battle tanks deploy Oct. 13, 2023, with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. An invasion will greatly exacerbate the hardships caused by Israel's total siege of the strip, creating a humanitarian crisis that could cause Egypt to use force to ensure that Palestinian refugees do not enter Sinai.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Ground Invasion, a Parliamentary Election in Poland

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

Solar panels on Aug. 9, 2023, in Neuss, Germany.

Resistance to environmental initiatives in Europe will likely continue beyond the 2024 EU elections, portending less ambitious climate targets and greater protectionism.

Europe Faces a Less Ambitious Environmental Agenda

Belarus

A woman sits by the entrance to the GUM department store in central Minsk on February 14, 2023.

Though Belarus is showing economic recovery in the short term, a number of structural issues will undermine its long-term growth prospects.

Belarus' Tentative Recovery Won’t Ensure Future Growth -– Or Kick-Start the Opposition

A political demonstration on June 20, 2023, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentine Primary Elections, the Possible ECOWAS Intervention in Niger

A Polish soldier stands by anti-tank obstacles by the metal wall constructed at the Belarussian border in Bialowieza, Poland, on July 08, 2023. 

In Romania's case, Russian aggression is more likely to occur by accident. But in Poland, such aggression would have higher chance of escalation because it'd likely be by design.

Russia's Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

Polish President Andrzej Duda speaks during a press conference in April 14, 2023. 

To gin up support, the nationalist government will pursue more hawkish policies on issues ranging from migration to Ukrainian food imports, raising the risk of additional EU sanctions.

In Poland, Political Tensions Rise Ahead of Elections

<p>Poland sits at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Located on the Northern European Plain, the country has a largely flat terrain with few geographic barriers &mdash; with the exception of the Baltic Sea to the north and the Carpathian Mountains in the extreme south. From the 15th to the 18th century, Poland was among the largest and most influential states in Europe. As the leading power of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Poland controlled territory that includes modern day Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and parts of western Russia. However, the emergence of Germanic powers to the west and Russia to the east proved disastrous for Poland, as the country was partitioned between the Russian, Prussian, and Austrian Empires at the end of the 18th century. Poland was then the setting of numerous wars for influence among European powers, proving a key battleground during World War I and II before being swept into the Soviet bloc during the Cold War. Poland returned to the Western fold once the Soviet Union collapsed, with the country joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Since then, Poland &mdash; with its demographic and industrial core in Warsaw &mdash; has been one of the most economically dynamic countries of the former Eastern bloc. The current crisis in Ukraine, as well as Poland&#39;s continued fear of Russia, has made Warsaw a pivotal player in the standoff between Moscow and the West. The country has sought to strengthen the presence of NATO on its territory and is a key part of the bloc&#39;s ballistic missile defense program. Poland has also sought to bring key countries in the former Soviet periphery, most notably Ukraine, closer to the West. Using these strategies to maintain territorial integrity is Poland&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Poland: Pro-EU Government Parties to Secure Narrow Victory in Local Elections

EU: Member States Reach Compromise To Extend Free Trade With Ukraine

Cyberspace: Additional Countries Join International Anti-Spyware Coalition

Poland, Ukraine: Poland May Temporarily Close its Border to Trade With Ukraine Amid Farmers' Protests

Poland, EU: Brussels Welcomes Poland's Judicial Reform Plan

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Unanimously Agree to New 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Kyiv

Italy: Watchdog Says ChatGPT Breaches EU Privacy Laws

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