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Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech at the Kremlin in Moscow on Sept. 30, 2022. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Gives a Speech, Biden Visits Poland as Ukraine War Hits One Year

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Germany

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A Leopard 2 A6 heavy battle tank participates in a demonstration of capabilities during a visit by German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht to the Bundeswehr Army training grounds on Feb. 7, 2022, in Munster, Germany. 

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The impending easing of the West's restrictions on tank deliveries could set a precedent that sees Kyiv secure more equipment it needs to continue resisting Russia's invasion.

For Ukraine, a Deal to Supply Western Tanks Could Unlock More Advanced Weapons

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EU flags fly outside the headquarters of the European Commission on Feb. 23, 2022, in Brussels, Belgium. 

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Politics

Brexit, COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis have increased the influence of southern and eastern EU members to the detriment of traditionally more influential countries in the north.

The EU's Shifting Balance of Power

A suspected missile crater in Przewodow, Poland.

After missile-linked explosions killed two people in Poland's town of Przewodow near Ukraine, Poland will likely trigger NATO's Article IV.

The Key Questions Surrounding the Missile-Linked Explosions in Poland

China

North Korea

South Korea

South Korean soldiers sit on a K2 tank in Pyeongtaek.

Warsaw's purchase of an estimated $15-20 billion worth of tanks, artillery and fighter jets will deepen Seoul's ties with NATO countries and cause concern with China and North Korea.

A Major Arms Deal With Poland Opens South Korea to More Business -- and Threats

Hungarian President Katalin Novak (L) and Polish President Andrzej Duda on May 17, 2022, in Warsaw, Poland.

Just as the Ukraine war motivated Sweden and Finland to abandon their neutrality, it could reconcile the European Union with two of its most problematic member states.

Will the War in Ukraine End the Polish-Hungarian Alliance?

The Ukraine Conflict

Divided EU Foreign Policies

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A natural gas-powered stove Nov. 03, 2021, in Berlin. France will host a meeting of EU energy ministers on May 2 to discuss how to deal with Russia's decision to halt natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. 

The Weekly Rundown: European Governments Discuss the Energy Crisis, Malaysia Increases Its Minimum Wage

The logo of Russia's energy giant Gazprom is seen at a gas station in Sofia, Bulgaria, on April 27, 2022. 

European Disintegration

By cutting off exports to Bulgaria and Poland, Moscow is hoping to drive a wedge between EU countries over their willingness to sanction Russian oil and pay for gas using rubles.

In Bulgaria and Poland, Russia Shows Its Willingness to Weaponize Europe's Gas Supplies

Security

Refugees from Ukraine line up to enter Poland on Feb. 28 at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Poland faces no immediate threat of Russian military aggression, but could face unconventional attacks, economic damage and fallout from Ukrainian refugees.

How the Ukraine War Will Impact Poland

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (left) welcomes his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orban, ahead of a meeting in Katowice, Poland, on June 30, 2021. 

The ECJ ruling marks a key step in the bloc’s institutional push for leverage against Euroskeptic member states like Poland and Hungary. 

EU’s Top Court Upholds Linking Funding to Respecting the Rule of Law

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Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Nov. 14, 2019, in Brasilia, Brazil, on the sidelines of a BRICS summit. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Russia on Feb. 14-17 in an effort to boost relations between the two countries.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-AU Summit, the German Chancellor in Ukraine and Russia

Belarus

A deserted migrant camp is seen on the Belarus-Poland border in the Grodno region on Nov. 18, 2021. 

Germany’s outreach to Lukashenko may temporarily improve the migrant crisis, but simmering tensions with Brussels will likely push Minsk to resume pressure tactics.

EU-Belarus Cooperation on the Border Is Unlikely to Yield Broader Rapprochement

Polish President Andrzej Duda said he will sign into law a bill establishing a special parliamentary panel to investigate Russian influence in the country that could ban individuals from holding public office for up to 10 years, Politico reported on May 29.

Poland: President Duda Approves Controversial Investigation Commission

The Polish government announced that it had reached a deal with the Ukrainian government to lift a ban on the transit of Ukrainian agri-food products announced on April 15, Reuters reported on April 18. 

Poland, Hungary, Ukraine: Warsaw Announces Deal to Lift Ban on Ukrainian Agri-Food Products

Slovakia

The governments of Poland and Hungary announced bans on grain and other food imports from Ukraine to protect local producers on April 15, the Financial Times reported April 16.

Europe: Poland and Hungary Announce Bans on Ukrainian Agri-Food Exports, Bulgaria and Slovakia to Follow

Slovakia will send its entire fleet of Soviet-era fighter jets, consisting of 13 MiG-29s, to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on March 17.

Ukraine: Slovakia and Poland Pledge Soviet-Era Jets for Ukraine

Poland's National Assembly on Feb. 8 approved two bills that the government hopes will unblock some $38 billion from the European Union's COVID-19 recovery fund, Euractiv reported Feb. 9.

Poland: National Assembly Approves Bills to Unlock EU Funding

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said his country could provide Ukraine with German-made Leopard 2 tanks without Germany's permission, Bloomberg reported Jan. 19.

Poland: Warsaw Claims It Could Supply Tanks to Kyiv Without Berlin's Permission

Polish President Andrzej Duda said after a meeting of the "Lublin Triangle" group with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Lithuanian leader Gitanas Nauseda in Lviv, Ukraine, that Poland will transfer a company of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition, Reuters reported Jan. 11. It is likely that this company of tanks (approximately 14) is only an initial delivery, and the tanks in question are expected to be of the Leopard 2A4 model.

Poland, Ukraine: Warsaw to Give Company of Tanks to Ukraine as Part of International Deal

Finland

Poland and France are pressuring Germany to join a European initiative to supply German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Politico reported Jan. 9.

Ukraine, Germany: Pressure Builds for European Plan to Provide Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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<p>Poland sits at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Located on the Northern European Plain, the country has a largely flat terrain with few geographic barriers &mdash; with the exception of the Baltic Sea to the north and the Carpathian Mountains in the extreme south. From the 15th to the 18th century, Poland was among the largest and most influential states in Europe. As the leading power of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Poland controlled territory that includes modern day Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and parts of western Russia. However, the emergence of Germanic powers to the west and Russia to the east proved disastrous for Poland, as the country was partitioned between the Russian, Prussian, and Austrian Empires at the end of the 18th century. Poland was then the setting of numerous wars for influence among European powers, proving a key battleground during World War I and II before being swept into the Soviet bloc during the Cold War. Poland returned to the Western fold once the Soviet Union collapsed, with the country joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Since then, Poland &mdash; with its demographic and industrial core in Warsaw &mdash; has been one of the most economically dynamic countries of the former Eastern bloc. The current crisis in Ukraine, as well as Poland&#39;s continued fear of Russia, has made Warsaw a pivotal player in the standoff between Moscow and the West. The country has sought to strengthen the presence of NATO on its territory and is a key part of the bloc&#39;s ballistic missile defense program. Poland has also sought to bring key countries in the former Soviet periphery, most notably Ukraine, closer to the West. Using these strategies to maintain territorial integrity is Poland&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

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A production line at factory Dec. 12, 2022, in Bierne, France.

Targeted EU Protectionism and Partial Cooperation With the U.S.

High EU Protectionism and High Cooperation With the U.S.

High EU Protectionism and No Cooperation With the U.S.

Fragmented EU Protectionism and Haphazard Coordination With the U.S.

Reduced EU Protectionism and Moderate Cooperation With the U.S.

How Will EU Industrial Policy Evolve Through Mid-2024?

Science & Technology

Ukrainian rescuers work Jan. 9, 2023, at a local market in Shevchenkove village, Kharkiv region, after a Russian missile strike. The Russia-Ukraine war will likely continue through 2023.

Stalemate and Continuing Conflict

Frozen Conflict and Return to Negotiations

Russia Seizes Significant Additional Ukrainian Territory

What Will the State of the Russia-Ukraine War Be by the End of 2023?

SITUATION REPORTS

Poland: President Duda Approves Controversial Investigation Commission

Poland, Hungary, Ukraine: Warsaw Announces Deal to Lift Ban on Ukrainian Agri-Food Products

Europe: Poland and Hungary Announce Bans on Ukrainian Agri-Food Exports, Bulgaria and Slovakia to Follow

Ukraine: Slovakia and Poland Pledge Soviet-Era Jets for Ukraine

Poland: National Assembly Approves Bills to Unlock EU Funding

Poland: Warsaw Claims It Could Supply Tanks to Kyiv Without Berlin's Permission

Poland, Ukraine: Warsaw to Give Company of Tanks to Ukraine as Part of International Deal

Ukraine, Germany: Pressure Builds for European Plan to Provide Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine

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