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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: EU and Chinese Officials Talk Trade, Israel Hosts an Abraham Accords Summit

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Kuwait

Lebanon

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A portrait of Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi is seen on a billboard in Sanaa, Yemen, on Oct. 31, 2021. 

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By alienating wealthy Arab Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, a Lebanese official’s show of support for Iran-backed proxies risks deepening his country’s financial crisis.

A Row Over Yemen Sends Lebanon-Gulf Ties Spiraling

The Yemen Civil War

Iran's Arc of Influence

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Hong Kong SAR, China

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Iran

Oman

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Zhang Xiaoming (C), Executive Deputy Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, at the end of a State Council press conference on Hong Kong electoral reform March 12, 2021, in Beijing.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Mainland Finalizes Hong Kong Reforms, Biden Reviews North Korea Policy

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Qatar

Egypt

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson Talaat Fahmy speaks during an interview in Istanbul, Turkey, on Jan. 19, 2021.

Energy

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Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

As it emerges from isolation, Doha will be forced to rely less on its ties to the Islamist group and more on diplomatic efforts to gain influence abroad. 

What Does the End of the Qatar Blockade Mean for the Muslim Brotherhood? 

COVID-19

Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Nayef Falah Al-Hajraf holds a press conference at the end of the GCC's 41st summit in the city of al-Ula in northwestern Saudi Arabia on Jan. 5, 2021. 

Military & Security

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Riyadh is trying to appease the incoming Biden administration, but U.S. concerns with its nuclear program and regional behavior will continue to drive rifts. 

What’s Driving Saudi Arabia to Ease Its 3-Year Qatar Blockade 

Security

The Saudi Survival Strategy

Iraq

Syria

A South Korean-flagged tanker is escorted in the Persian Gulf after being seized by the Iranian navy on Jan. 4, 2021. 

Cyber

Tehran's increased nuclear and naval activity in recent days risks provoking a military response in the region, including a potential U.S. strike on Iranian soil. 

What to Make of the Latest Uptick in Iranian Aggression 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sudan

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) and Alternate Prime Minister and Defence Minister Benny Gantz (left) attend a cabinet meeting in the Knesset on May 24, 2020.

Should the vote yield a more right-wing government with a new leader, Arab and Muslim states may pause or even reverse their pursuit of normalized Israeli ties.

What Another Israeli Election Means for Netanyahu and Normalization 

Israel's Survival Strategy

Qatar’s defense minister (center) waits for the arrival of his Turkish counterpart to meet with the prime minister of Libya’s U.N.-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli on Aug. 17, 2020. 

The easing of the Qatar blockade may help resolve the current GCC crisis, but it won't unite Arab Gulf states’ divergent regional policies.

A Potential Breakthrough in Qatar Paves the Way for GCC Reconciliation 

The Libyan Civil War

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men attend the funeral of Rabbi Aharon David Hadash, the spiritual leader of the Mir Yeshiva, in Jerusalem's ultra-Orthodox neighborhood of Beit Yisrael on Dec. 3, 2020.

The dynamic among right-wing factions might prove more influential on Israeli behavior than external pressure from allies or enemies.

Where Will Israel’s Increasingly Right-Wing Youth Take Its Foreign Policy?

Media

Podcasts

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast, Emily Donahue speaks with Middle East and North Africa analyst Ryan Bohl about signs that a yearslong blockade in the Gulf may be about to crack. 

Essential Geopolitics: Breaking a Blockade in the GCC

A man walks past the flags of the countries attending the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Kuwait City, Kuwait, on Dec. 5, 2017. 

A Crude Recovery

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

The proposed tax for wealthy Omani citizens underscores the growing pressure on GCC states to reduce their heavy reliance on oil and gas revenue.

Oman’s New Income Tax Will Offer a Test Case for the Arab Gulf 

An image shows the national flag of Saudi Arabia.

Saudi media commentary on Sudan’s new normalization deal suggests Riyadh is trying to prepare its citizens for the formalizing of their country’s own ties with Israel.

Eying Normalization, Saudi Arabia Changes Its Tone on Israel

Qatar and Bahrain will resume diplomatic ties after almost six years, The Bahrain News Agency and Qatar's Foreign Ministry said on April 13.

Qatar, Bahrain: Countries to Resume Diplomatic Ties, but Relationship Remains Fragile

Representatives from the foreign ministries of Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and the United States are meeting in Manama, Bahrain, for the first steering committee meeting of the Negev Summit, which is intended to address regional security and economic cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa, The Times of Isreal reported June 27.

MENA: Negev Summit Steering Committee Meets in Manama, Bahrain

Bahrain's Interior Ministry announced a new Golden Residency Visa that allows long-term residents to gain permanent residency once they have lived in the country for five years and earn around $5,300 a month, Reuters reported Feb. 7.

Bahrain: Golden Residency Visa's Low Requirements Highlight Demographic, Economic Strategy

Israel and Bahrain signed a memorandum of understanding that provides the framework for defense cooperation between the two countries, which includes intelligence sharing, joint training and cooperation between defense industries and research, Reuters reported Feb. 3.

Israel, Bahrain: New Defense Agreement Strengthens Bilateral Relations

Social Issues

Crossing Borders

The Pulse of Political Islam

Lebanese Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi ordered the deportation of non-Lebanese members of the Bahraini Shiite opposition party and association Al Wefaq, Reuters reported Dec. 15.

Lebanon: Government to Deport Members of Bahraini Opposition Group

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The Israeli, Emirati, Bahraini and U.S. navies began a joint exercise in the Red Sea that will last five days and cover various naval drills such as visitation, boarding, and search and seizure tactics, according to the U.S. Central Command, The Times of Israel reported Nov. 11.

UAE, Israel, U.S., Bahrain: Joint Naval Drill Signals Deepening of Abraham Accords

Bahrain’s leading Shiite opposition group, Al Wefaq National Islamic Society, publicly rejected Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s recent visit to the country, The Washington Post reported Sept. 30.

Bahrain: Israeli Foreign Minister’s Visit Faces Domestic Opposition    

Chile

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The Indonesian Medical Association reported that 10 doctors have died from COVID-19 after being fully vaccinated with Chinese firm Sinovac's CoronaVac vaccine, Voice of America reported June 30.

China: Questions About Sinovac Vaccine Grow as Delta Variant Spreads

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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The island of Bahrain is the smallest country in the Persian Gulf, sitting just off the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia and the western coast of Qatar. It has almost no forestry to speak of and very little arable land. The country's only natural resources are a dwindling supply of hydrocarbons.      But because Bahrain has an ancient natural oasis, it is also one of the oldest inhabited places in the Gulf; there is evidence that the island was host to the Dilmun civilization as far back as the 4th millennium BCE. Bahrain was often the base of great powers who sought to control the Persian Gulf, including the ancient Assyrians, the Safavid Persians and, most recently, the British Empire. The Safavid Persians left behind a large community of Shiite believers, although the island has been under the rule of a Sunni dynasty since the 18th century.     Bahrain's main geographic challenge is securing export routes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz so it can access the wider oceans, but it rarely has the strength to do this on its own. It also often becomes the pawn of greater powers and struggles to defend itself against invaders. The country thus seeks to ally itself with outside powers that will protect it and also allow it to export its hydrocarbons. Most recently, Bahrain also has sought allies that will also protect its Sunni dynasty from its Shiite majority, who have been agitating to gain more control of the country.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Qatar, Bahrain: Countries to Resume Diplomatic Ties, but Relationship Remains Fragile

MENA: Negev Summit Steering Committee Meets in Manama, Bahrain

Bahrain: Golden Residency Visa's Low Requirements Highlight Demographic, Economic Strategy

Israel, Bahrain: New Defense Agreement Strengthens Bilateral Relations

Lebanon: Government to Deport Members of Bahraini Opposition Group

UAE, Israel, U.S., Bahrain: Joint Naval Drill Signals Deepening of Abraham Accords

Bahrain: Israeli Foreign Minister’s Visit Faces Domestic Opposition

China: Questions About Sinovac Vaccine Grow as Delta Variant Spreads

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