Somalia

Israel

Turkey

Military & Security

Politics

Turkey has dispatched several F-16 fighter jets and attack helicopters to Somalia, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 30, quoting sources familiar with the matter.

Somalia: Turkey Deploys F-16s To Counter al Shabaab, Strengthen Influence

United States

Iran

Saudi Arabia

U.S.-Iran Relations

Saudi and Israeli officials are arriving in Washington the week of Jan. 26 to discuss the potential impacts of and possible de-escalation plans for U.S. President Donald Trump's widely anticipated campaign against Iran, Axios reported on Jan. 29.

U.S., Iran: Coordination Increases as Trump Signals Desire To Reignite Protests in Iran

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas is reportedly looking to integrate around 10,000 of its police officers into the government led by the new Palestinian-led technocratic National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, or NCAG, as part of discussions about disarmament, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

Palestinian Territories: Hamas Pushes for Police To Integrate Into Transitional Government

Egypt

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office announced Israel will reopen the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip -- likely within days -- after the Israel Defense Forces secured the body of the last remaining hostage taken by Hamas in 2023, Reuters reported on Jan. 26.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel To Reopen Rafah Crossing After Hostage Recovery Efforts End

Ethiopia

United Arab Emirates

Economics

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi met with U.S. President Donald Trump's son, Eric Trump, in the presence of Israeli President Isaac Herzog on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

Somaliland: Abdullahi Meets With Eric Trump, Israel's Herzog at Davos Summit

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Somalia are in advanced talks to seal a military partnership, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16.

Red Sea: Saudi Arabia in Talks To Finalize Military Partnership With Egypt, Somalia 

The National Committee for the Administration of the Gaza Strip (NCAG), the 15-person committee of Palestinian technocrats tasked by the U.N. Security Council and the Board of Peace with governing Gaza, convened for the first time in Cairo, Egypt, Reuters reported Jan. 15.

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced that the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan in Gaza would begin, saying it would entail the demilitarization, reconstruction and post-Hamas governance of the strip, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire To Begin, but Questions on Implementation Remain

Assessments

Syria

A fighter of the Syrian Democratic Forces stands on a road between the Syrian villages of Safa and Tell Brak on Jan. 24, 2026.

The government's deal with the Kurdish-led SDF will reduce sectarian tensions, accelerate a U.S. withdrawal and open space for a Syria-Israel security pact, though risks from local violence and the Islamic State remain.

What a Kurdish Integration Deal Means for Syria's Stability

China

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) holds up his signature on the founding charter among world leaders during a ceremony for the Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 22, 2026.

The U.S.-led endeavor's immediate priority will be expanding aid in Gaza, but internal divisions, international skepticism and Israeli interference will likely undermine its effectiveness, especially if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapses.

What To Make of Trump's 'Board of Peace'

A photo of Israeli banknotes.

While Israel's economy has proven remarkably resilient during the years-long Gaza war with Hamas, persistent security risks and an upcoming election will present new challenges.

How Israel's Economy Will Weather Persistent Political and Security Concerns in 2026

Greenland

Vietnam

Denmark

France

Switzerland

Ukraine

Russia

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Eritrea

Sudan

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Snapshots

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

Israel's Survival Strategy

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Turkey Deploys F-16s To Counter al Shabaab, Strengthen Influence

U.S., Iran: Coordination Increases as Trump Signals Desire To Reignite Protests in Iran

Palestinian Territories: Hamas Pushes for Police To Integrate Into Transitional Government

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel To Reopen Rafah Crossing After Hostage Recovery Efforts End

Somaliland: Abdullahi Meets With Eric Trump, Israel's Herzog at Davos Summit

Red Sea: Saudi Arabia in Talks To Finalize Military Partnership With Egypt, Somalia

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Israel, Gaza: Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire To Begin, but Questions on Implementation Remain

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