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Military & Security

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Russia's Africa Corps began deploying transmission equipment and radars at the Faya-Largeau base in northern Chad in late January, while observers have noted several individuals thought to be Africa Corps emissaries in the capital, N'Djamena, Jeune Afrique reported on Feb. 11.

Africa: Russia Expands Footprint in Chad, Upgrades Airbase in Southern Libya

Energy

Protests forced Libya to shut down oil export loadings at the Ras Lanuf and al-Sidr oil terminals, which export about 400,000 barrels per day of Libya's 1.4 million barrels per day of oil production, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 28. 

Libya: Political Dispute Blocks Oil Export Loadings at Two Ports

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria

Venezuela

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Economics

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Libya's Benghazi-based Government of National Stability announced the reopening of oil terminals and the resumption of crude oil production following the swearing-in of the Central Bank of Libya's new governor Naji Mohamed Issa Belqasem earlier in the week, The Libya Observer reported on Oct. 3. 

Libya: Oil Blockade Ends as New Central Bank Leadership Sworn In

Republic of the Congo

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and other oil producers participating in OPEC+'s voluntary 2.2 million barrel per day production cut agreed to delay the cut's phase out from Oct. 1 to Dec. 1, OPEC+ said in a press release published on its website on Sept. 5.

Global: OPEC+ Delays Voluntary Production Cut Phase Out by Two Months

Representatives from Libya's two parliaments -- the eastern Libya-based House of Representatives and the Tripoli-based High Council of State -- agreed to appoint a new governor and board of directors to the Central Bank of Libya jointly within 30 days, the U.N. Support Mission in Libya announced on Sept. 3.

Libya: Rival Legislatures Compromise on Central Bank Leadership Crisis

Brazil

OPEC+ may delay a planned 180,000 barrel per day increase in oil production in October, Reuters reported on Sept. 4, citing three OPEC+ sources.

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

Assessments

United States

Egypt

Israel

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Tunisia

Egyptians protest in front of the Rafah border crossing, rejecting the proposed displacement of Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt and Jordan, on Jan. 31, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Pro-Palestinian protests will persist regionwide amid allegations of Israeli ceasefire violations, but Morocco and Egypt will avoid taking action that could jeopardize their access to Israeli weapons and energy.

How Will North African Governments Respond to Ardent Pro-Palestinian Sentiment?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Kenya

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Snapshots

Libyan protesters burn tires in Tripoli on Aug. 28, 2023, in response to reports that their country's foreign minister met with her Israeli counterpart. 

The uproar over the foreign minister meeting shows that anti-Israel sentiment remains strong in Libya, which will chill further attempts to build covert ties between the two countries.

In Libya, Israel's Normalization Push Goes Sideways Over a Secret Meeting

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Angola

Mozambique

Lebanon

Turkey

Europe

Cyprus

Italy

Ukraine

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

Western Sahara

After decades of isolation, Algiers plans to use its energy wealth to engage with the world, but its lack of economic diversification will hamper this process.

Algeria Emerges From Isolation, but Its Economy and Foreign Policy Will Limit Change

A photo shows the Mellitah Oil and Gas terminal in western Libya, which is a joint venture between Italy's Eni and Libya's National Oil Company. 

Efforts by countries like Turkey and Egypt to further their own interests by exploiting Libya's internal rivalries risk disrupting peace talks and the country's energy exports.

External Meddling in Libya's Crisis Portends More Infighting and Oil Blockades

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre discusses the recent drop in U.S. gas prices during her daily press briefing in Washington D.C. on Aug. 3, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Risks stemming from the Ukraine crisis, along with developments unrelated to the war, could quickly send prices back above $100 per barrel -- if not much higher.

Global Oil Prices Ease, but for How Long?

Farhat Bengdara, the new chief of Libya's National Oil Corporation appointed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, gives a press conference outside the company’s headquarters in Tripoli on July 14, 2022.

The prime minister’s gambit may end the current oil blockade. But it could also enable his eastern-based rivals to further weaponize those exports and oil revenue down the line.

The Firing of the NOC Chairman Risks Politicizing Libya’s Oil Company

Fathi Bashagha delivers a speech in Tripoli, Libya, after east-based lawmakers named him as the head of a new interim government on Feb. 10, 2022.

The Libyan Civil War

Security

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

The approval of a new regime by east-based lawmakers could renew violence in Tripoli and disrupt the energy-rich nation’s crucial oil and gas exports. 


The Risks of Libya’s Return to Two Governments

Guidance

South Africa

Mexico

A Ukrainian soldier on the front line of the Donbas conflict on Dec. 12, 2021, in Zolote, Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine tensions will continue to climb next week as the Russian-occupied Donbas separatist republics evacuate their territory and repeat dubious claims that a Ukrainian attack is imminent. 

The Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Russia-Ukraine Tensions Soar Even Higher, a Possible U.S.-Iran Nuclear Breakthrough

A group of activists protest against the postponement of Libya’s presidential election in Tripoli's Martyrs Square on Dec. 25, 2021.  

Postponing the presidential election will resolve neither the disputes over how to hold the ballot nor the controversy surrounding the top candidates, portending more violence and division.

A Delayed Vote Reflects the Scars of Libya’s Civil War

Libya lies in the middle of North Africa’s Mediterranean coast, bordered by Tunisia and Algeria to the west and Egypt to the east. Across the Sahara Desert, the country’s southern edges touch Niger, Chad and Sudan.     Libya is divided into three geographic regions: Fezzan, the desert interior; Cyrenaica, the Mediterranean hills running east to the Egyptian border; and Tripolitania, the coastal deserts and oases of the west. Because the country’s two largest cities, Benghazi and Tripoli, are separated by a long stretch of sparsely populated coast, Libyan power tends to split between east and west.     Libya has no year-round rivers or lakes, and it boasts only small forests in Cyrenaica. Though it is the fourth-largest country in Africa by landmass, Libya ranks 36th by population, home to a mere 6.2 million people. However, the state has the ninth-largest proven oil reserves, making trade and secure sea lanes critical to Libyan prosperity and security.     From gaining independence in 1951 to the outbreak of civil war in 2011, Libya used its energy resources to import technology and goods that transformed its economy. Chief among these projects was the Great Man-Made River, which brought underground water supplies from the desert to the coast, improving Libya’s trade capabilities and boosting its influence across Africa.     Because Libya has no natural geographic barriers to fortify its land borders, its governments often struggle to establish order across their territory while protecting the country’s long, exposed coastline from other Mediterranean powers. Friendly ties with European countries are therefore vital to Libya’s security, because the state cannot defend its coastline from Continental navies. Libya’s primary geographic challenge is thus to guard its winding coasts and borders while using its substantial energy resources to develop the country. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Africa: Russia Expands Footprint in Chad, Upgrades Airbase in Southern Libya

Libya: Political Dispute Blocks Oil Export Loadings at Two Ports

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Libya: Oil Blockade Ends as New Central Bank Leadership Sworn In

Global: OPEC+ Delays Voluntary Production Cut Phase Out by Two Months

Libya: Rival Legislatures Compromise on Central Bank Leadership Crisis

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

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