Libya

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Libya's House of Representatives approved a 90 billion dinar ($18.5 billion) 2024 budget for the eastern Libya-based Government of National Stability, led by Prime Minister Ossama Hamad, Reuters reported on April 30.

Libya: Parliament Approves $18.5B Budget for Internationally Unrecognized Government

Tunisia

Armed clashes erupted in Libya between the Interior Ministry's Zuwara Military Chamber task force and armed militias near the Libya-Tunisia Ras Ajdir border crossing, The National reported on March 18.

Tunisia, Libya: Armed Clashes in Libya Result in Closure of Ras Ajdir Border Crossing

Three Libyan leaders -- Presidential Council head Mohammad Younes Menfi, Supreme Council of State head Mohamed Takala and Benghazi-based House of Representatives speaker Aguila Saleh -- announced an agreement on the need to form a unity government to oversee new elections, Reuters reported on March 10.

Libya: Despite Some Leaders' Recent Agreement, Unity Government Remains Unlikely

The Libyan Petroleum Facilities Guards, or PFG, announced the "closure of all oil fields and ports" throughout the country following a 10-day ultimatum to the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, or GNU, to increase their salaries, Alwasat News reported on Feb. 25.

Libya: Oil Guards Shut Down Wafa Oil Field and Greenstream Gas Pipeline to Italy

Imad Trabelsi, the interior minister of Libya's internationally recognized government, announced that several militia groups would leave the capital by the end of Ramadan on April 9, Al Jazeera reported on Feb. 21. 

Libya: Interior Minister Announces Armed Groups Will Leave Tripoli

Environment, Science & Technology

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Science & Technology

Several foreign-based Libyans reported that they lost all contact with journalists inside the city of Derna, Al Jazeera reported on Sept. 19, and on the same day, The Libya Observer reported that local authorities had ordered foreign journalists to leave the city.

Libya: Derna Experiences Communications Blackout Amid Faltering Disaster Relief

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Russia

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group, posted a video address on his Telegram channel on Aug. 21, his first since the short-lived Wagner mutiny in June, Reuters reported the next day.

Russia, Africa: Prigozhin Posts First Video Since Mutiny, May Be in Africa

Significant clashes in Tripoli, Libya, erupted between the Special Deterrence Force (SDF) and the 444 brigade on Aug. 14 after SDF militia members arrested Mahmoud Hamza of the 444 brigade, Reuters reported the next day.

Libya: Fighting Breaks Out in Tripoli After Detainment of Militia Commander

Snapshots

United States

Israel

Libyan protesters burn tires in Tripoli on Aug. 28, 2023, in response to reports that their country's foreign minister met with her Israeli counterpart. 

The uproar over the foreign minister meeting shows that anti-Israel sentiment remains strong in Libya, which will chill further attempts to build covert ties between the two countries.

In Libya, Israel's Normalization Push Goes Sideways Over a Secret Meeting

Assessments

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Angola

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Algeria

Egypt

Iraq

Lebanon

Turkey

Europe

Cyprus

Italy

Ukraine

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Western Sahara

After decades of isolation, Algiers plans to use its energy wealth to engage with the world, but its lack of economic diversification will hamper this process.

Algeria Emerges From Isolation, but Its Economy and Foreign Policy Will Limit Change

A photo shows the Mellitah Oil and Gas terminal in western Libya, which is a joint venture between Italy's Eni and Libya's National Oil Company. 

Efforts by countries like Turkey and Egypt to further their own interests by exploiting Libya's internal rivalries risk disrupting peace talks and the country's energy exports.

External Meddling in Libya's Crisis Portends More Infighting and Oil Blockades

Brazil

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre discusses the recent drop in U.S. gas prices during her daily press briefing in Washington D.C. on Aug. 3, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Risks stemming from the Ukraine crisis, along with developments unrelated to the war, could quickly send prices back above $100 per barrel -- if not much higher.

Global Oil Prices Ease, but for How Long?

Farhat Bengdara, the new chief of Libya's National Oil Corporation appointed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, gives a press conference outside the company’s headquarters in Tripoli on July 14, 2022.

The prime minister’s gambit may end the current oil blockade. But it could also enable his eastern-based rivals to further weaponize those exports and oil revenue down the line.

The Firing of the NOC Chairman Risks Politicizing Libya’s Oil Company

Fathi Bashagha delivers a speech in Tripoli, Libya, after east-based lawmakers named him as the head of a new interim government on Feb. 10, 2022.

The Libyan Civil War

Security

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

The approval of a new regime by east-based lawmakers could renew violence in Tripoli and disrupt the energy-rich nation’s crucial oil and gas exports. 


The Risks of Libya’s Return to Two Governments

Guidance

South Africa

Mexico

A Ukrainian soldier on the front line of the Donbas conflict on Dec. 12, 2021, in Zolote, Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine tensions will continue to climb next week as the Russian-occupied Donbas separatist republics evacuate their territory and repeat dubious claims that a Ukrainian attack is imminent. 

The Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Russia-Ukraine Tensions Soar Even Higher, a Possible U.S.-Iran Nuclear Breakthrough

A group of activists protest against the postponement of Libya’s presidential election in Tripoli's Martyrs Square on Dec. 25, 2021.  

Postponing the presidential election will resolve neither the disputes over how to hold the ballot nor the controversy surrounding the top candidates, portending more violence and division.

A Delayed Vote Reflects the Scars of Libya’s Civil War

Chile

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Jose Kast, the presidential candidate from Chile’s right-wing Republican Party, speaks during a closing rally in Santiago on Dec. 16, 2021, ahead of runoff elections. 

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Chile, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Potentially Libya

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Libya is set to hold its first presidential vote on Dec. 24, which will also mark the country's first major national ballot since 2014.

Essential Geopolitics: Libya Holds Elections

Libya lies in the middle of North Africa’s Mediterranean coast, bordered by Tunisia and Algeria to the west and Egypt to the east. Across the Sahara Desert, the country’s southern edges touch Niger, Chad and Sudan.     Libya is divided into three geographic regions: Fezzan, the desert interior; Cyrenaica, the Mediterranean hills running east to the Egyptian border; and Tripolitania, the coastal deserts and oases of the west. Because the country’s two largest cities, Benghazi and Tripoli, are separated by a long stretch of sparsely populated coast, Libyan power tends to split between east and west.     Libya has no year-round rivers or lakes, and it boasts only small forests in Cyrenaica. Though it is the fourth-largest country in Africa by landmass, Libya ranks 36th by population, home to a mere 6.2 million people. However, the state has the ninth-largest proven oil reserves, making trade and secure sea lanes critical to Libyan prosperity and security.     From gaining independence in 1951 to the outbreak of civil war in 2011, Libya used its energy resources to import technology and goods that transformed its economy. Chief among these projects was the Great Man-Made River, which brought underground water supplies from the desert to the coast, improving Libya’s trade capabilities and boosting its influence across Africa.     Because Libya has no natural geographic barriers to fortify its land borders, its governments often struggle to establish order across their territory while protecting the country’s long, exposed coastline from other Mediterranean powers. Friendly ties with European countries are therefore vital to Libya’s security, because the state cannot defend its coastline from Continental navies. Libya’s primary geographic challenge is thus to guard its winding coasts and borders while using its substantial energy resources to develop the country. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Libya: Parliament Approves $18.5B Budget for Internationally Unrecognized Government

Tunisia, Libya: Armed Clashes in Libya Result in Closure of Ras Ajdir Border Crossing

Libya: Despite Some Leaders' Recent Agreement, Unity Government Remains Unlikely

Libya: Oil Guards Shut Down Wafa Oil Field and Greenstream Gas Pipeline to Italy

Libya: Interior Minister Announces Armed Groups Will Leave Tripoli

Libya: Derna Experiences Communications Blackout Amid Faltering Disaster Relief

Russia, Africa: Prigozhin Posts First Video Since Mutiny, May Be in Africa

Libya: Fighting Breaks Out in Tripoli After Detainment of Militia Commander

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