Eritrea

Ethiopia

United States

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Europe

Military & Security

Politics

Director General of Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service Redwan Hussein and former chief of Tigray's interim regional administration Getachew Reda accused the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, of planning to launch an offensive against pro-government forces with the support of Eritrea "in the coming days" in a June 11 op-ed published by Al Jazeera.

Ethiopia: Intelligence Chief, Former Tigray Administrator Accuse TPLF of Planning Offensive in 'Coming Days'

Lebanon

Economics

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman lifted a ban on Lebanese imports, with the Saudi press agency noting "positive steps" in Lebanon's institutional reorganization, The National reported on June 11.

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon: Riyadh Ends Trade Ban in Boon to Lebanese Agriculture

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The 2026-30 budget for Saudi Arabia's Neom city megaproject includes 60 billion riyals ($16 billion) in penalty payments to terminate long-term contractor agreements, Semafor reported on June 7.

Saudi Arabia: Neom Megaproject Cuts Incur Penalty Payments

Iran

Israel

Energy

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there were "good signs" a deal could be reached with Iran, though he rejected Tehran tolling ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported May 21. 

U.S., Iran: Rubio Suggests 'Good Signs' for Deal, but Sticking Points Remain

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

The Gulf Cooperation Council and the United Kingdom signed a free-trade agreement (FTA) that, according to some estimates, could add $5 billion per year to the U.K. economy over the long term, the Financial Times reported May 20.

Global: GCC and the U.K. Sign Free Trade Agreement

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a May 18 Truth Social post that he had called off a planned May 19 military attack on Iran following requests from Qatari, Saudi and Emirati leaders, who reportedly informed Trump that negotiations on a deal that includes "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN" were progressing.

U.S., Iran: Trump Calls Off Planned May 19 Attack on Iran as Negotiations Reportedly Progress

Pakistan

Pakistan has in recent weeks deployed approximately 8,000 troops, a squadron of 16 JF-17 fighters and other aircraft, and a Chinese HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system to Saudi Arabia under the countries' September 2025 mutual defense agreement, Reuters reported on May 18, citing three "security officials" and two "government sources."

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Report Details Military Assets Pakistan Has Deployed to Saudi Arabia Amid the Iran War

Saudi Arabia is reportedly discussing a nonaggression pact between Middle Eastern countries and Iran to de-escalate regional tensions after the end of the Iran war, the Financial Times reported on May 14.

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Saudi Arabia Discussing Nonaggression Pact With Iran, Vance Suggests 'Progress'

Assessments

Guests stand outside a model carriage of the "Dream of the Desert" ultra-luxury train on display during the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 28, 2025.

Efforts to create new export routes via railways and pipelines will be hampered by regional mistrust, uncertain commercial viability and long construction timelines, ultimately keeping Gulf states reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.

All Roads Lead to Hormuz: The Limits of Gulf Infrastructure Diversification

Egypt

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Social Issues

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Gulf states' push to employ more local citizens in the private sector will help advance their economies and reduce public wage bills, but it will also create new risks for businesses that have traditionally relied on cheap foreign labor.

The Future of Work in the GCC: Localization, Competition and Business Risks

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Snapshots

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

The city skyline in Dubai is seen at sunset.

Although Gulf capitals are increasingly investing in mid-tier autonomy and offensive capabilities, achieving total strategic independence remains constrained by their enduring need for high-end American systems.

The Future of GCC Defense and Security Strategies in a Changing Middle East

Flatlining population growth will leave the Gulf Arab states reliant on specialized, high-tech militaries that are supplanted by foreign forces, exposing them to various long-term security vulnerabilities.

The Demographic Drag on Gulf States' Military Strength

Media

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

China

Taiwan

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

India

A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Global Trade

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Comprising a majority of the Arabian Peninsula, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is surrounded by Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen.  The kingdom's main geographic challenges are controlling its sparsely populated territory and maintaining shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.    Surrounded by vast deserts, the central Najd plateau is the core of Saudi Arabia and is home to the country's capital, Riyadh. Mecca and Medina, Islam's two holiest cities, are protected by mountains in the west and flanked by the Red Sea. The security of these cities is a key to the monarchy's legitimacy.    The collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I set the stage for the House of Saud to unify the territory that became Saudi Arabia in 1932. Oil and natural gas have been the country's main exports and source of wealth since their discovery in 1938.     A restive Eastern Province holds a majority of the kingdom's reserves and makes the country vulnerable to invasion from the north or the Persian Gulf. Cross border tribal ties also expose the kingdom to unrest in the south on the border with Yemen.    A scarcity of fresh water and a small population density limit Saudi Arabia's defensive capabilities. Since the vast majority of Saudi oil exports pass via the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, the kingdom has historically relied on a foreign power to balance regional rival, Iran and keep the Strait open.    As global oil consumption continues to rise, Saudi Arabia will continue to play a dominant role in the Middle East despite its geographic challenges.

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia: Intelligence Chief, Former Tigray Administrator Accuse TPLF of Planning Offensive in 'Coming Days'

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon: Riyadh Ends Trade Ban in Boon to Lebanese Agriculture

Saudi Arabia: Neom Megaproject Cuts Incur Penalty Payments

U.S., Iran: Rubio Suggests 'Good Signs' for Deal, but Sticking Points Remain

Global: GCC and the U.K. Sign Free Trade Agreement

U.S., Iran: Trump Calls Off Planned May 19 Attack on Iran as Negotiations Reportedly Progress

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Report Details Military Assets Pakistan Has Deployed to Saudi Arabia Amid the Iran War

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Saudi Arabia Discussing Nonaggression Pact With Iran, Vance Suggests 'Progress'

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