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Energy

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

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Politics

Nominated U.S. ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said in an interview with Israeli Army Radio that the United States could back an Israeli annexation of the West Bank, The Times of Israel reported on Nov. 13.

Israel, U.S.: Incoming Trump Administration May Back Israeli Annexation of West Bank

The United States and Saudi Arabia are reportedly discussing a bilateral security agreement separate from the stalled mega-deal that includes a bilateral defense pact, Axios reported on Nov. 4. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Bilateral Security Agreement

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Saudi Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan said at the Future Investment Initiative conference that the $930 billion PIF would aim to reduce the share of international projects in its investment portfolio from 30% in 2020 and 21% currently to 18%-20%, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 29. 

Saudi Arabia: Sovereign Wealth Fund To Focus Portfolio on More Domestic Assets

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India

The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, adopted its summit declaration, which noted the creation of a BRICS "partner country" status, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

A Saudi Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed that Saudi Arabia, Iran and other unspecified countries had conducted joint naval drills in the Sea of Oman in a first for the two countries, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 24.

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Saudi Arabia and Iran Hold Joint Naval Drills

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The United States is considering placing quotas on export licenses for advanced artificial intelligence chips made by Nvidia and other American semiconductor companies, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15.

U.S.: Washington Weighs Caps on AI Chip Export Licenses to Some Countries

Assessments

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Media

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks to journalists in Riyadh before the first meeting of Saudi Arabia's new global alliance to push for Palestinian statehood on Oct. 30, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Protracted regional conflicts risk undermining the kingdom's efforts to diversify its oil-reliant economy, normalize ties with Israel, and balance between Iran and its opponents. 

Saudi Arabia's Regional Strategy, Part 1: Balancing Between Iran and Its Rivals

Has Saudi Arabia accomplished its Vision 2030 goals?

Essential Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

As Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 enters its final five years, the Saudi government is likely to deepen reforms designed to improve the country's economic attractiveness and performance. But as it struggles to compete with its neighbors' social reforms and absorb potential global geopolitical shocks, Riyadh could adopt more coercive policies at times.

Evaluating Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 as It Enters the Home Stretch

Bahrain

Oman

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

Europe

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a press conference at the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., on July 11, 2024. 

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Biden's exit from the U.S. presidential race will free him to pursue more aggressive action against Russia over Ukraine and increase pressure on Israel to end its war with Hamas. 

What To Expect from Biden's Foreign Policy Farewell Tour

Morocco

Israeli soldiers guard a barrier, silhouetted against afternoon sun.

As Gaza moves closer to a post-war reality, political limitations in Israel and competing interests abroad muddy the waters of the region's future governance.

For Israel, the Challenge of Gaza's Future Governance Deepens

Columns

On Geopolitics

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

Comprising a majority of the Arabian Peninsula, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is surrounded by Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen.  The kingdom's main geographic challenges are controlling its sparsely populated territory and maintaining shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.    Surrounded by vast deserts, the central Najd plateau is the core of Saudi Arabia and is home to the country's capital, Riyadh. Mecca and Medina, Islam's two holiest cities, are protected by mountains in the west and flanked by the Red Sea. The security of these cities is a key to the monarchy's legitimacy.    The collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I set the stage for the House of Saud to unify the territory that became Saudi Arabia in 1932. Oil and natural gas have been the country's main exports and source of wealth since their discovery in 1938.     A restive Eastern Province holds a majority of the kingdom's reserves and makes the country vulnerable to invasion from the north or the Persian Gulf. Cross border tribal ties also expose the kingdom to unrest in the south on the border with Yemen.    A scarcity of fresh water and a small population density limit Saudi Arabia's defensive capabilities. Since the vast majority of Saudi oil exports pass via the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, the kingdom has historically relied on a foreign power to balance regional rival, Iran and keep the Strait open.    As global oil consumption continues to rise, Saudi Arabia will continue to play a dominant role in the Middle East despite its geographic challenges.

The Syrian Civil War

The Saudi Survival Strategy

A Crude Recovery

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Israel, U.S.: Incoming Trump Administration May Back Israeli Annexation of West Bank

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Bilateral Security Agreement

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Saudi Arabia: Sovereign Wealth Fund To Focus Portfolio on More Domestic Assets

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

Saudi Arabia, Iran: Saudi Arabia and Iran Hold Joint Naval Drills

U.S.: Washington Weighs Caps on AI Chip Export Licenses to Some Countries

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