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The Afghan Taliban released Dennis Coyle, a U.S. academic the group had detained since January 2025 for unspecified reasons, The New York Times reported on March 24. 

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Pakistan's information minister announced on March 18 a pause on strikes in Afghanistan beginning midnight the same day and extending through midnight on March 23, AP reported on March 18.

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Announces Days-Long Pause on Strikes Following Foreign Pressure

Unnamed sources at Afghanistan's forensic medicine department in Kabul said overnight Pakistani airstrikes hit a drug rehabilitation center in the capital, killing more than 100 people, BBC reported on March 17.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Strike Hits Kabul Rehab Facility, Reportedly Killing Hundreds

China

The Afghan Taliban said Pakistan targeted civilian homes and private airline Kam Air's fuel depots, killing at least six civilians and wounding more than a dozen others, AP reported on March 13.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistan's Strikes in Afghanistan Renew Challenge to Mediation Efforts

The U.S. Department of State notified Congress the week of March 9 of its intent to close the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan, claiming it would save $7.5 million a year and have limited impact on the United States' diplomatic influence in Pakistan, AP reported on March 11. 

U.S., Pakistan: U.S. To Close Consulate in Peshawar, Purportedly To Cut Costs

Three unnamed Pakistani officials said Chinese mediation in recent weeks has helped ease cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with China's special envoy to Afghanistan shuttling between the warring countries for talks and China's President Xi Jinping recording a message in late February calling for the parties to halt their skirmishes, Reuters reported on March 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Afghanistan and its Taliban government a "state sponsor of wrongful detention," demanding the group end its continuing use of "terrorist tactics" and kidnappings "for ransom or to seek policy concessions," Reuters reported on March 9.

U.S., Afghanistan: Washington Designates Afghanistan 'State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention'

Iran

Israel

Afghanistan-Pakistan cross-border clashes continued on March 1 as the Taliban in the capital, Kabul, reported firing at Pakistani jets that purportedly attempted to target Bagram Air Base, though consequent damage and casualties remain unclear, Reuters reported the same day.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghanistan-Pakistan Clashes Persist as Conflict Erupts in Neighboring Iran

Snapshots

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

Assessments

Benin

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Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

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Flight routes.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Americas

Brazil

Colombia

Cuba

Haiti

Nicaragua

Iraq

Jordan

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

South Asia

Bangladesh

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

France

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

A man looks at damage from a Balochistan Liberation Army attack Jan. 30 in central Bolan district in Balochistan province, Pakistan. Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

The Implications of Pakistan's Renewed Counterterrorism Campaign

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

Afghan refugees arrive at the Chaman border crossing in Pakistan before departing for Afghanistan on Nov. 4, 2023. 

Islamabad's push to send Afghan migrants back home will likely worsen security threats in Pakistan, while further destabilizing Afghanistan and potentially the broader region.

The Implications of Pakistan's Deportation Drive and New Cross-Border Travel Policy

<p>Afghanistan is a landlocked country in South Asia bordering China, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Spanning over 652,000 square miles, the majority-Muslim country&#39;s geography can be divided into the highlands, the northern plains and the southwestern plateau. Mountains are Afghanistan&#39;s dominant geographic feature, with the Hindu Kush range running at a southwestern angle and roughly dividing the country in half. The four most important cities are the capital Kabul in the east, Kandahar in the south, Herat in the west, and Mazar-i-Sharif in the north. Because of its location, the country functions as a bridge between energy-rich Central Asia and energy-deficient South Asia. Afghanistan&#39;s primary geographic challenge is resisting the intervention of outside powers while also maintaining authority over a mostly rural society spread across a rugged landscape. Afghanistan&#39;s location at the crossroads of the Middle East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent has historically invited external actors, resulting in a country containing diverse languages, cultures and ethnicities. Indeed, Afghan society includes significant populations of Pashtun, Tajiks, Turkmens, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Each of these groups share populations in a neighboring country, encouraging external involvement. The borders of modern-day Afghanistan were drawn during the 19th century to carve out a space between the British and Russian empires. Afghanistan&#39;s most contentious boundary is with Pakistan and is called the Durand Line. Afghanistan disputes the border, claiming that its true boundary should absorb Pakistan&#39;s Pashtun-majority region. This fuels the antagonism between the two countries and plays a role in Afghanistan&#39;s broader challenge of asserting sovereignty as outside actors try to advance their own interests.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Announces Days-Long Pause on Strikes Following Foreign Pressure

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Strike Hits Kabul Rehab Facility, Reportedly Killing Hundreds

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistan's Strikes in Afghanistan Renew Challenge to Mediation Efforts

U.S., Pakistan: U.S. To Close Consulate in Peshawar, Purportedly To Cut Costs

Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting

U.S., Afghanistan: Washington Designates Afghanistan 'State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention'

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghanistan-Pakistan Clashes Persist as Conflict Erupts in Neighboring Iran

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