Afghanistan

Pakistan

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Following Afghanistan and Pakistan's most intense clashes in years, the two sides agreed to a more permanent ceasefire during talks in Doha mediated by Turkey and Qatar, Reuters reported on Oct. 19.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul, Islamabad Agree to More Permanent Ceasefire Following Doha Talks

Pakistan's foreign ministry announced it had agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire with the Afghan Taliban starting at 6 p.m. Pakistan standard time, hours after clashes resurged following days of relative calm, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

Intense clashes erupted between Afghan Taliban fighters and Pakistani security forces along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border late on Oct. 11, days after the Taliban accused Pakistan of carrying out airstrikes in Afghanistan, AP reported on Oct. 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

The Afghan Taliban's spokesperson said in a late Oct. 9 post on X that the sound of an explosion had just been heard in Afghanistan's capital, and added that authorities were investigating the incident but that no damage had been reported yet.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul Explosion May Be a Pakistani Strike Against TTP Leader

India

Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi landed in India to begin a scheduled Oct. 9-16 visit, marking the Taliban's highest-level visit to India since the group retook control of Afghanistan in August 2021, Reuters reported Oct. 9.

Afghanistan: Taliban Foreign Minister Begins Trip to India, Seeking to Foster Bilateral Ties

Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network was restored the evening of Oct. 1, easing nationwide disruptions to internet, phone and other services that had resulted from the Taliban's shutdown of the network on Sept. 29, Tolo News has reported.

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

Cyber

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Science & Technology

The Afghan Taliban shut down Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network indefinitely amid a push in recent weeks to limit activities it deems immoral, resulting in disruptions to internet access, mobile and landline phone services, as well as television and radio transmissions, AFP reported on Sept. 30.

Afghanistan: Taliban Imposes Nationwide Telecommunications Blackout

United States

Economics

Unnamed sources familiar with ongoing discussions say U.S. officials are in very preliminary discussions with the Afghan Taliban on potentially reestablishing a small U.S. military presence at Bagram Air Field in Afghanistan's northeast Parwan province, which would serve as a "launch point" for counterterrorism operations, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 19.

Afghanistan: U.S. Officials Reportedly in Early Talks With Taliban on Retaking Bagram Air Base

Assessments

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Germany

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Russia

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

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The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

A man looks at damage from a Balochistan Liberation Army attack Jan. 30 in central Bolan district in Balochistan province, Pakistan. Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

The Implications of Pakistan's Renewed Counterterrorism Campaign

Iran

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

Snapshots

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

Afghan refugees arrive at the Chaman border crossing in Pakistan before departing for Afghanistan on Nov. 4, 2023. 

Islamabad's push to send Afghan migrants back home will likely worsen security threats in Pakistan, while further destabilizing Afghanistan and potentially the broader region.

The Implications of Pakistan's Deportation Drive and New Cross-Border Travel Policy

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What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

Qatar

Qatar's then deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (center), speaks during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2023. 

The meeting suggests the Taliban may be willing to compromise on some issues, but such talks are unlikely to yield significant change in Afghanistan anytime soon. 

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

What risks does the Taliban face as the fighting season begins?

Essential Geopolitics: Recent Security Developments in Afghanistan

<p>Afghanistan is a landlocked country in South Asia bordering China, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Spanning over 652,000 square miles, the majority-Muslim country&#39;s geography can be divided into the highlands, the northern plains and the southwestern plateau. Mountains are Afghanistan&#39;s dominant geographic feature, with the Hindu Kush range running at a southwestern angle and roughly dividing the country in half. The four most important cities are the capital Kabul in the east, Kandahar in the south, Herat in the west, and Mazar-i-Sharif in the north. Because of its location, the country functions as a bridge between energy-rich Central Asia and energy-deficient South Asia. Afghanistan&#39;s primary geographic challenge is resisting the intervention of outside powers while also maintaining authority over a mostly rural society spread across a rugged landscape. Afghanistan&#39;s location at the crossroads of the Middle East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent has historically invited external actors, resulting in a country containing diverse languages, cultures and ethnicities. Indeed, Afghan society includes significant populations of Pashtun, Tajiks, Turkmens, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Each of these groups share populations in a neighboring country, encouraging external involvement. The borders of modern-day Afghanistan were drawn during the 19th century to carve out a space between the British and Russian empires. Afghanistan&#39;s most contentious boundary is with Pakistan and is called the Durand Line. Afghanistan disputes the border, claiming that its true boundary should absorb Pakistan&#39;s Pashtun-majority region. This fuels the antagonism between the two countries and plays a role in Afghanistan&#39;s broader challenge of asserting sovereignty as outside actors try to advance their own interests.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul, Islamabad Agree to More Permanent Ceasefire Following Doha Talks

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul Explosion May Be a Pakistani Strike Against TTP Leader

Afghanistan: Taliban Foreign Minister Begins Trip to India, Seeking to Foster Bilateral Ties

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

Afghanistan: Taliban Imposes Nationwide Telecommunications Blackout

Afghanistan: U.S. Officials Reportedly in Early Talks With Taliban on Retaking Bagram Air Base

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