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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Economics

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Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Assessments

Incoming Kenyan President William Ruto lifts a sword at the Moi International Sports Center Kasarani in Nairobi, Kenya, during his inauguration ceremony on Sept. 13, 2022.

Environment, Science & Technology

Ruto is unlikely to mitigate the East African country's cost of living crisis in his first 100 days as promised, which will impede his government's ability to carry out fiscal consolidation measures to ensure debt sustainability.

Kenya's New President Will Struggle to Fulfill His Pledge of Quick Economic Relief

Chile

Europe

United Kingdom

A moving van at No. 10 Downing Street, the official residence of the prime minister of the United Kingdom, on Sept. 2, 2022, in central London. The governing Conservative Party will announce the winner of its leadership contest Sept. 5, and Queen Elizabeth II will appoint the new Conservative leader as British prime minister Sept. 6.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A New British Prime Minister, a New Chilean Charter

A supporter of Kenyan presidential candidate Raila Odinga gestures past a fire during a protest in Nairobi on Aug. 15, 2022, after William Ruto was declared the winner of the country's recent presidential race. 

Losing candidate Raila Odinga’s rejection of the results and accusations of foul play will undermine the legitimacy of what was one of the most peaceful votes in the country’s history.

Amid Fraud Allegations, Kenya's Presidential Election Risks Ending in Violence

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The results of Kenya's and Senegal's widely anticipated elections could mean future economic and legislative uncertainty.

Essential Geopolitics: What's Happening With Elections in Kenya and Senegal?  

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A Chinese military vessel on Aug. 5, 2022, sails off Pingtan Island, Fujian province, one of mainland China's closest points to Taiwan. Beijing is likely to continue rolling out new methods of economic coercion against U.S. and Taiwanese companies in the coming week.

The Weekly Rundown: Colombia's President Takes Office, China Coerces Taiwan

U.S.-China Relations

Kenya's former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka delivers a speech during an Azimio La Umoja party (One Kenya Coalition Party) campaign rally in Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium in Kisumu on Aug. 4 ahead of the country's general election.

To avoid an economically devastating default, whoever wins the Aug. 9 vote will likely be forced to abandon social spending commitments and pursue fiscal consolidation and/or debt restructuring.

How a New President Will Impact Kenya's Debt Sustainability

What to look for as Kenya's Aug. 9 election approaches.

Essential Geopolitics: Kenya's 2022 Election. A Recipe for Unrest?

Snapshots

Raila Odinga (center left) shakes the hand of his newly announced running mate, Martha Karua, (center right), on May 16, 2022, in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi.

The selections do not reduce the potential for post-election unrest, especially in the event of a close or contested vote. 

Kenya's Presidential Candidates Select Their Running Mates

A construction worker adds gravel to the tracks of a section of the new Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Nairobi, Kenya, in June 2018. 

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Reducing public spending and renegotiating the debt racked up by current President Kenyatta's infrastructure projects will prove difficult, raising the risk of a default in the long term.

Kenya's Next President Will Inherit an Unsustainable Debt Burden

Guidance

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaks on stage during a campaign rally for his ruling Fidesz party in Szekesfehervar, Hungary, on April 1, 2022. 

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya Presents Its National Budget, Hungary and Serbia Hold Elections

Uganda

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Security

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Kenyan government reached an agreement over $1 billion in new financing, pending the approval of IMF's Executive Board , Reuters reported May 23. 

Kenya: The IMF and Nairobi Agree to $1 Billion of New Financing 

Kenya's opposition party suspended protests on May 3 planned for the following day after reaching an agreement with the government, Al Jazeera reported on May 4.

Kenya: Opposition Leader Suspends Protests

The extra yield demanded by investors to hold Kenyan dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasurys closed at 993 basis points on April 21, below the 1,000 level that bond traders consider indicative of potential debt distress, Bloomberg reported on April 24.

Kenya: Investors Reportedly Dumping Bonds Amid Rising Fears of Default

Kenya did not pay civil servants (besides police officers and military forces) their March salaries because the government used money collected in the last two weeks by the Kenya Revenue Authority to pay government debt maturities, The Africa Report reported on April 11.

Kenya: Government Still Has Not Paid March Public Wage Bill

Hundreds of Kenyan opposition protesters led by opposition leader Raila Odinga took to the streets in multiple cities for the third mass demonstration in two weeks, leading to violent clashes with police in the capital Nairobi, Reuters reported on March 30.

Kenya: Opposition Protests Persist, Prolonging Risks of Violent Unrest

Kenya's opposition leader Raila Odinga announced the start of nationwide protests against President William Ruto after his 14-day ultimatum to reduce the cost of living and open the 2022 presidential election servers expired, Anadolu Agency reported on March 9.

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls For Nationwide Protests Against Government 

While speaking before thousands of supporters during a rally, Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga called for nationwide protests if the government does not lower the cost of living within two weeks, The Africa Report reported Feb. 23.

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls for Nationwide Protest Against Government

Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga called for national rallies to defend four members of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) who the National Assembly is threatening to dismiss over their rejection of the August presidential election results that declared William Ruto the winner, The Africa Report reported Nov. 30.

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls for Rallies to Protest Electoral Commission Suspensions

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Kenya hugs the Indian Ocean coast just to the southwest of the Horn of Africa. Its neighbors South Sudan and Ethiopia border it to the north, Somalia to the east, Tanzania to the south and Uganda to the west. Kenya’s position in East Africa has long drawn interest from outsiders. The territory of modern-day Kenya and its neighbors has been home to robust Indian Ocean trading networks that date to antiquity. This geographic proximity to global trade combined with the broader Lake Victoria region’s strengths &mdash; which include relative cultural homogeneity and advantageous terrain for agricultural development &mdash; helped to yield stable population and economic growth.    Since it gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1963, Kenya has struggled at times to manage its diverse ethnic populations. This has resulted in intermittent riots and other forms of unrest related to grievances of various ethnic groups that believed that they were disenfranchised from the country’s political system. Post-electoral violence in 2007-08 and again in 2017 stemmed largely from Nairobi’s mismanagement of its ethnic divisions.    Nevertheless, Kenya occupies the center of gravity in East Africa. Despite Ethiopia’s massive population advantage and economic growth, it remains relatively isolated when compared with Kenya. That allows Kenya to serve as a center for East Africa’s trade, business, security and diplomatic efforts. It also remains a robust supporter of the East African Community, which is fostering closer economic and political ties among Kenya’s neighbors.    Somalia's collapse and its struggles with state-building and militancy, especially the al Shabaab group, has spawned effects that spill over its border with Kenya. Ethnic Somalis &mdash; both refugees and Kenyan citizens &mdash; have pursued an uneasy existence on Kenya's northern coast and in various camps around Nairobi. This has posed a significant challenge for Nairobi to manage, especially as the security situation in Somalia shows no signs of dramatically improving in the years ahead.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Kenyan government reached a staff-level agreement on economic policies for the fourth review of the ongoing financing arrangement, which will enable the disbursement of about $433 million once the IMF board has completed its final review, Bloomberg reported Nov. 8.

Kenya: Government, IMF Reach Staff-Level Agreement

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya: The IMF and Nairobi Agree to $1 Billion of New Financing

Kenya: Opposition Leader Suspends Protests

Kenya: Investors Reportedly Dumping Bonds Amid Rising Fears of Default

Kenya: Government Still Has Not Paid March Public Wage Bill

Kenya: Opposition Protests Persist, Prolonging Risks of Violent Unrest

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls For Nationwide Protests Against Government

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls for Nationwide Protest Against Government

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls for Rallies to Protest Electoral Commission Suspensions

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