Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Burundi

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Mali

Mozambique

Nigeria

South Africa

Sudan

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Assessments

United States

China

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris listens to Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan make a statement to the press before a meeting in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on April 15, in Washington, D.C.

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

China's influence over Tanzania is poised to grow as Beijing continues to invest in the country's infrastructure.

Tanzania's Business-Friendly Stance Opens the Door to U.S.-China Competition

U.S.-China Relations

Rwanda

Uganda

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Security

Snapshots

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan attends the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 2, 2021.

Energy

Hassan's efforts to reverse her predecessor's iron-fisted policies will help attract investment, but the scope may be limited by the global economic climate.

 Can Tanzania's New President Repair Her Country's Image?

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Media

Chad

France

Podcasts

In this episode of the Stratfor Essential Geopolitics podcast from RANE, Stratfor senior global analyst at RANE Matthew Bey provides guidance about the impact of the deaths of Chad's and Tanzania's presidents. 

Essential Geopolitics: Two Sub-Saharan Nations Face New Leadership

People read newspapers announcing the death of Tanzanian President John Magufuli in Dar es Salaam on March 18, 2021. 

Environment, Science & Technology

While it’s upended Tanzania’s political cycle, Magufuli’s passing won’t immediately reverse the country’s drift toward authoritarianism.

Tanzania’s President Has Died, but His ‘Bulldozer’ Policies Will Live On 

COVID-19

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Guidance

Japan

South Korea

Germany

Iran

India

A staff member of the statistic office sorts postal voting envelopes by the numbers of the electoral districts on March 2, 2021, in Stuttgart, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany. A strong performance by the Greens in their Baden-Wuerttemberg stronghold would confirm their ambitions of entering the German government.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Tanzanian President's Health, and High-Level U.S.-China Meetings

Soldiers patrol the streets in Mocimboa da Praia, Mozambique, on March 7, 2018. 

The Jihadist Wars

Recent militant activity in northern Mozambique suggests a possible evolution of capabilities that could eventually grow to threaten LNG operations in Cabo Delgado.

An Insurgent Offensive Looms Large Over Mozambique's Energy Projects

Namibia

Zambia

People wearing masks gather in a granite quarry in Antananarivo, Madagascar, for an Easter celebration.

Current disruptions may provide only a short-term challenge for the region’s lucrative mining operations. But they will come just ahead of a longer-term blow to revenue caused by the pandemic-induced global recession.

COVID-19 Shakes Up Southern Africa’s Mining Sector 

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

Tanzania, Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor, and British oil and gas company Shell completed negotiations on the construction of a proposed $30 billion liquified natural gas (LNG) facility, Reuters reported on March 6.

Tanzania: Government Completes Negotiations on Construction of $30 Billion LNG Project

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan lifted a ban on political rallies, The East African reported Jan. 3.

Tanzania: President Lifts Ban on Opposition Rallies

Equinor and Shell reached a deal with Tanzania over an initial framework that could pave the way to signing a host government agreement by the end of the year, Reuters reported June 11.

Tanzania: Equinor, Shell Reach Initial Deal as Tanzania Eyes 2025 LNG FID

The International Monetary Fund announced on June 9 that it reached a staff-level agreement with Tanzanian authorities on a $1.071 billion Extended Credit Facility program, subject to IMF management and the executive board's approval.

Tanzania: Government, IMF Agree on $1 Billion Extended Credit Facility

Ukraine

Russia

Eleven Tanzanian students traveled from the city of Sumy in northeastern Ukraine to Sudja, a border town between Ukraine and Russia, where Russian forces escorted them to Moscow, The East African reported March 8.

Tanzania: Students Evacuate From Ukraine Via Russia Following Political Agreement

Tanzanian prosecutors dropped terrorism charges against opposition CHADEMA party leader Freeman Mbowe and his associates, and authorities subsequently released them from prison, The Washington Post reported March 4.

Tanzania: Opposition Leader's Freedom a Partial Shift Away From Authoritarianism

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan met with Tundu Lissu, Tanzania's exiled and most prominent opposition leader, in Brussels, Voice of America reported Feb. 16.

Tanzania: Presidential Meeting With Opposition Could Presage Ease of Authoritarian Policies

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan has appointed a COVID-19 advisory committee, marking a shift from her late predecessor's downplaying of the virus and rejection of the pandemic’s severity, Bloomberg reported April 6. 

Tanzania: New President Forms COVID-19 Advisory Committee

Afghanistan

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Iraq

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Brazil

Finland

Israel

Nepal

Cameroon

Canada

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Sri Lanka

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Costa Rica

Indonesia

Libya

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Saudi Arabia

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

Tanzania is an East African country on the coast of the Indian Ocean. It borders Uganda and Kenya to the north; Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia to the south; and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and Rwanda to the east.    Given Tanzania's geographical location, it has a dual identity: It is both a Great Lakes region state and a coastal, southern African state. The Great Lakes region is centered on Lake Victoria, Africa's largest lake. The massive body of water has acted as a transport artery for the peoples of the region for thousands of years, helping in the development of a relatively homogenous socio-cultural and linguistic identity. However, while Tanzania derives much from this part of its geography, it is also a thoroughly coastal power. The country's main population center falls on what is known as the Swahili coast. This positioning opened the country up to foreign interaction with Arab traders and others for centuries before British colonization. As a coastal state, Tanzania is able to look beyond the Great Lakes region and connect with southern Africa when it suits its interests.    Managing this geographic duality is a necessary challenge for Tanzanian leaders. However, an ever more pressing challenge will be felt in the years ahead as the country's ruling party, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which is the longest reigning political party on the continent, grapples with inevitable electoral losses. Thus far, CCM has maintained its unparalleled dominance at the top of the Tanzania political system, but cracks will form in the years ahead. Indeed, there have already been signs of trouble: The government annulled the results of 2015 elections on the semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar in light of opposition success. How CCM's future leaders deal with electoral losses will have an outsized influence on the country's political stability.    On the economic front, Tanzania is likely set to benefit from natural gas projects off its southern coast. The potential windfall in the years ahead (which would also benefit neighboring Mozambique) could serve to increase Tanzania's coffers and its profile on the continent and beyond.

Female

Male

SITUATION REPORTS

Tanzania: Government Completes Negotiations on Construction of $30 Billion LNG Project

Tanzania: President Lifts Ban on Opposition Rallies

Tanzania: Equinor, Shell Reach Initial Deal as Tanzania Eyes 2025 LNG FID

Tanzania: Government, IMF Agree on $1 Billion Extended Credit Facility

Tanzania: Students Evacuate From Ukraine Via Russia Following Political Agreement

Tanzania: Opposition Leader's Freedom a Partial Shift Away From Authoritarianism

Tanzania: Presidential Meeting With Opposition Could Presage Ease of Authoritarian Policies

Tanzania: New President Forms COVID-19 Advisory Committee

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support