Kenya

Tanzania

Uganda

Economics

Energy

Politics

Uganda’s energy ministry announced that it had reached an agreement with Kenya whereby Kenyan authorities would grant state-owned Uganda National Oil Co., or UNOC, a license to import petroleum products via the port of Mombasa, Reuters reported on March 28.

Kenya, Uganda: Governments To Resolve Oil Import Dispute

Kenya's port authority announced that container traffic at the port of Mombasa rose by 11.9% in 2023, Business Daily Africa reported on March 26.

Kenya: Container Traffic at Mombasa Port Grows by Almost 12%

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

South Africa

United States

Europe

Military & Security

Rwanda said it reserved the right to take "any legitimate measure" to defend itself, including degrading offensive air capabilities within the Democratic Republic of the Congo, amid the intensification of fighting in eastern Congo between Congolese authorities and M23 rebels, Africanews reported on Feb. 19.

Congo, Rwanda: Rwanda Rejects U.S. Calls To Withdraw Military Assets From Eastern Congo 

Malawi

South Africa will dispatch 2,900 soldiers to the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern regions as part of a 7,000 troop deployment from the Southern African Development Community, or SADC, to help Congolese authorities tackle the M23 rebel group, Reuters reported on Feb. 12.

Congo, South Africa: South Africa To Dispatch 2,900 Troops in Eastern Congo as Part of SADC Deployment 

Zambia

China

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

China's Ambassador to Zambia Du Xiaohui presented a $1 billion plan to revamp a railway connecting Zambia's copper mines with Tanzania's port of Dar es Salaam, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 7. 

Tanzania, Zambia: China Proposes $1B Railway Refurbishment

United Arab Emirates

Emirati port operator DP World won a bid to operate part of Tanzania's Dar es Salaam port on Oct. 22 despite strong resistance from Tanzania's main opposition party, Jeune Afrique reported the next day.

Tanzania: Government Signs 30-Year Port Deal With DP World

Mozambique

Indonesia

Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo wrapped a weeklong Africa tour during which he signed vaccine export and energy deals with Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, Nikkei Asia reported on Aug. 24.

Indonesia: Jokowi Lands Deals With Several African Countries

Tanzanian Finance Minister Mwigulu Nchemba said Tanzania plans a 7% increase in overall government spending in the 2023-4 fiscal year, Reuters reported on June 15.

Tanzania: Government Plans 7% Spending Increase in 2023-4 Fiscal Year

Snapshots

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan (center) attends a mini-summit on the sidelines of the 36th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb.17, 2023.

The opposition party's demands for greater reforms risk triggering a security crackdown that would harm Tanzania's new image as a safe and stable investment destination.

Opposition Rallies Test Tanzania's Commitment to Political Liberalization

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Burundi

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Ethiopia

Mali

Nigeria

Sudan

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Assessments

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris listens to Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan make a statement to the press before a meeting in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on April 15, in Washington, D.C.

U.S.-China Relations

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

China's influence over Tanzania is poised to grow as Beijing continues to invest in the country's infrastructure.

Tanzania's Business-Friendly Stance Opens the Door to U.S.-China Competition

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

Security

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan attends the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 2, 2021.

Hassan's efforts to reverse her predecessor's iron-fisted policies will help attract investment, but the scope may be limited by the global economic climate.

 Can Tanzania's New President Repair Her Country's Image?

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

Media

Chad

France

Podcasts

In this episode of the Stratfor Essential Geopolitics podcast from RANE, Stratfor senior global analyst at RANE Matthew Bey provides guidance about the impact of the deaths of Chad's and Tanzania's presidents. 

Essential Geopolitics: Two Sub-Saharan Nations Face New Leadership

People read newspapers announcing the death of Tanzanian President John Magufuli in Dar es Salaam on March 18, 2021. 

COVID-19

Old Leaders in a New Africa

While it’s upended Tanzania’s political cycle, Magufuli’s passing won’t immediately reverse the country’s drift toward authoritarianism.

Tanzania’s President Has Died, but His ‘Bulldozer’ Policies Will Live On 

Guidance

Japan

South Korea

Germany

Iran

India

A staff member of the statistic office sorts postal voting envelopes by the numbers of the electoral districts on March 2, 2021, in Stuttgart, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany. A strong performance by the Greens in their Baden-Wuerttemberg stronghold would confirm their ambitions of entering the German government.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Tanzanian President's Health, and High-Level U.S.-China Meetings

Soldiers patrol the streets in Mocimboa da Praia, Mozambique, on March 7, 2018. 

The Jihadist Wars

Recent militant activity in northern Mozambique suggests a possible evolution of capabilities that could eventually grow to threaten LNG operations in Cabo Delgado.

An Insurgent Offensive Looms Large Over Mozambique's Energy Projects

Namibia

People wearing masks gather in a granite quarry in Antananarivo, Madagascar, for an Easter celebration.

Current disruptions may provide only a short-term challenge for the region’s lucrative mining operations. But they will come just ahead of a longer-term blow to revenue caused by the pandemic-induced global recession.

COVID-19 Shakes Up Southern Africa’s Mining Sector 

The arrests of four Chinese contractors provide another worrying sign of Tanzania's eroding business and investment prospects under its president's nationalist agenda.

Tanzania Takes Another Swipe at Chinese Investment 

Tanzania is an East African country on the coast of the Indian Ocean. It borders Uganda and Kenya to the north; Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia to the south; and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and Rwanda to the east.    Given Tanzania's geographical location, it has a dual identity: It is both a Great Lakes region state and a coastal, southern African state. The Great Lakes region is centered on Lake Victoria, Africa's largest lake. The massive body of water has acted as a transport artery for the peoples of the region for thousands of years, helping in the development of a relatively homogenous socio-cultural and linguistic identity. However, while Tanzania derives much from this part of its geography, it is also a thoroughly coastal power. The country's main population center falls on what is known as the Swahili coast. This positioning opened the country up to foreign interaction with Arab traders and others for centuries before British colonization. As a coastal state, Tanzania is able to look beyond the Great Lakes region and connect with southern Africa when it suits its interests.    Managing this geographic duality is a necessary challenge for Tanzanian leaders. However, an ever more pressing challenge will be felt in the years ahead as the country's ruling party, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which is the longest reigning political party on the continent, grapples with inevitable electoral losses. Thus far, CCM has maintained its unparalleled dominance at the top of the Tanzania political system, but cracks will form in the years ahead. Indeed, there have already been signs of trouble: The government annulled the results of 2015 elections on the semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar in light of opposition success. How CCM's future leaders deal with electoral losses will have an outsized influence on the country's political stability.    On the economic front, Tanzania is likely set to benefit from natural gas projects off its southern coast. The potential windfall in the years ahead (which would also benefit neighboring Mozambique) could serve to increase Tanzania's coffers and its profile on the continent and beyond.

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya, Uganda: Governments To Resolve Oil Import Dispute

Kenya: Container Traffic at Mombasa Port Grows by Almost 12%

Congo, Rwanda: Rwanda Rejects U.S. Calls To Withdraw Military Assets From Eastern Congo

Congo, South Africa: South Africa To Dispatch 2,900 Troops in Eastern Congo as Part of SADC Deployment

Tanzania, Zambia: China Proposes $1B Railway Refurbishment

Tanzania: Government Signs 30-Year Port Deal With DP World

Indonesia: Jokowi Lands Deals With Several African Countries

Tanzania: Government Plans 7% Spending Increase in 2023-4 Fiscal Year

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