Assessments

Senegal

South Africa

Zambia

United States

China

Japan

South Korea

Vietnam

Germany

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Two Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks of the German armed forces participate in the NATO Iron Wolf military exercises on Oct. 27, 2022, in Pabrade, Lithuania. On Jan. 20, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group of military equipment donors to Ukraine will meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where a breakthrough is expected regarding the supply of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine. 

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Germany Discusses Tanks for Ukraine, the Lunar New Year Approaches

Angola

Ethiopia

Republic of the Congo

Newly elected Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema delivers a speech during his inauguration at the Heroes Stadium in Lusaka on Aug. 24, 2021. 

Economics

Beijing's first foray into debt restructuring under the G-20 framework will offer insight into China's potential position in other African countries' creditor talks.

What Zambian Debt Talks Could Mean for Chinese Borrowers in Africa

Guidance

Iran

Syria

Turkey

Italy

Russia

Sri Lanka

A protester waves Sri Lanka's national flag outside the presidential palace in Colombo on July 13, 2022. 

The Weekly Rundown: Sri Lanka Picks a New President, a Russia-Turkey-Iran Summit

Chad

People wait outside the entrance to the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) outside the IMF headquarters in Washington D.C. on Oct. 11, 2021. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Pressing internal issues facing both institutions’ leaders and main shareholders will limit room for substantive reforms, further slowing the global economy’s recovery.

This Year’s World Bank-IMF Meetings Are Unlikely to Yield Progress

COVID-19

France

Belarus

Israel

Lebanon

Israeli self-propelled howitzers fire toward Lebanon on Aug. 6, 2021, from a position near the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona following rocket fire from the Lebanese side of the border. Hezbollah and Israel traded fire Aug. 6, raising concerns they could be on the path to another major conflict.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Tensions on the Israel-Lebanon Border, Corruption Trials in South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Brazil

A promotional board for the annual series of meetings between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is seen outside the IMF headquarters in Washington D.C. on Oct. 13, 2020.

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the two financial institutions will discuss the need to prop up global growth and address growing debt vulnerabilities in developing countries. 

What to Watch for During This Week's IMF-World Bank Meetings

A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) building from the street in Washington D.C. on Sept. 25, 2020.

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Neither bondholders nor other bilateral creditors will want to restructure the southern African country’s debt without Zambia’s largest creditor, China, also bearing a financial burden. 

Zambia’s Imminent Debt Default 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Namibia

Tanzania

People wearing masks gather in a granite quarry in Antananarivo, Madagascar, for an Easter celebration.

Current disruptions may provide only a short-term challenge for the region’s lucrative mining operations. But they will come just ahead of a longer-term blow to revenue caused by the pandemic-induced global recession.

COVID-19 Shakes Up Southern Africa’s Mining Sector 

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Uganda

Employees introduce cellphones during a show by Chinese tech firm Huawei in Lusaka, Zambia, during April 2016. A recent report saying African governments have used the company's technology and engineers to spy on their political opponents illustrates the importance of controlling national communication networks.

Cyber

Stratfor Threat Lens

A recent report saying African governments have used the company's technology and engineers to spy on their political opponents illustrates the importance of controlling national communication networks.

Huawei May Be Helping Governments in Africa Boost Their Power to Spy

Ghana

China and multilateral lenders like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are in talks over how to break the ongoing global debt-restructuring impasse, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 11.

Africa: Multilateral Creditors and Beijing May Be Close to Debt Restructuring Compromise

Zambia's finance ministry said it is open to discussing all options that will make debt restructuring more acceptable to creditors, Bloomberg reported Dec. 22.

Zambia: Government Is Open to All Debt Restructuring Options

Zimbabwe

Insufficient water levels in the Kariba dam, the world’s largest man-made reservoir located on the Zambezi river, is causing hours-long power cuts in Zambia and Zimbabwe, Radio France International reported Dec. 11.

Zambia, Zimbabwe: Kariba Dam Water Levels at Historic Low, Causing Power Cuts 

Zambia has called on its external creditors to grant $8.4 billion in debt relief over the next few years, according to a new report released by the International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg reported Sept. 6.

Zambia: Government Seeks $8.4 Billion in Debt Relief

The executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Aug. 31 approved a $1.3 billion, 38-month arrangement under a new Extended Credit Facility loan program to boost Zambia’s debt sustainability through fiscal adjustment and debt restructuring, the Financial Times reported Sept. 1.

Zambia: IMF Approves New $1.3 Billion Extended Credit Facility

A spokesperson from Zambia's central bank said the institution refused to pay a ransom to Hive, a ransomware group behind a May 9 cybersecurity attack, Bloomberg reported May 18.

Zambia: Central Bank Says No Ransom Paid Following Hive Cyber Attack

Security

Belize

The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a U.S. foreign aid agency established in 2004, identified Zambia and Belize as eligible to receive its $400-500 million five-year grants, The Africa Report reported Dec. 15.

Zambia: Millennium Challenge Corporation Bestows Multi-million Dollar Grant 

A Dec. 6 International Monetary Fund statement said Zambia will need to undergo comprehensive debt restructuring under the Group of 20 common framework before the IMF’s executive board can consider a new staff-level agreement on a three-year Extended Credit Facility arrangement for $1.4 billion.

Zambia: Debt Restructuring Needed Before IMF Agreement Can Proceed

Afghanistan

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

India

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Iraq

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Burundi

Finland

Nepal

Cameroon

Canada

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Central African Republic

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Costa Rica

Indonesia

Libya

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Cote d'Ivoire

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Saudi Arabia

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

Female

Male

Lesotho

Mozambique

Eswatini

South African and African National Congress President Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC's 110th anniversary celebrations Jan. 8, 2022, at the Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane. Divisions within the ANC are likely to inhibit Ramaphosa's ability to pass structural economic reforms but in our baseline scenario, South Africa will avoid a major debt crisis before 2024.

SITUATION REPORTS

Africa: Multilateral Creditors and Beijing May Be Close to Debt Restructuring Compromise

Zambia: Government Is Open to All Debt Restructuring Options

Zambia, Zimbabwe: Kariba Dam Water Levels at Historic Low, Causing Power Cuts

Zambia: Government Seeks $8.4 Billion in Debt Relief

Zambia: IMF Approves New $1.3 Billion Extended Credit Facility

Zambia: Central Bank Says No Ransom Paid Following Hive Cyber Attack

Zambia: Millennium Challenge Corporation Bestows Multi-million Dollar Grant

Zambia: Debt Restructuring Needed Before IMF Agreement Can Proceed

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