Situation Reports

Kazakhstan's government confirmed that Azerbaijan's state oil company, SOCAR, is in advanced negotiations to join the Dunga oil field project, an asset formerly majority-owned by French supermajor TotalEnergies, Report Information Agency reported on Oct. 14.

In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency stated that Ukrainian drone strikes will keep Russia's oil refineries operating at reduced capacity until at least mid-2026, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15.

The U.S. Trump administration is conditioning ongoing U.S.-Thailand trade negotiations on Bangkok's ability to reach a lasting ceasefire with Cambodia, effectively linking tariff relief to peace along their contested border, the Bangkok Post reported on Oct. 14.

The United States cancelled the visas of at least 50 Mexican politicians and government officials over alleged links to cartels, Reuters reported on Oct. 14.

Malagasy Col. Michael Randrianirina announced that the military would "take over" government affairs, suspend the constitution and dissolve all institutions except the National Assembly, Madagascar's lower house, Reuters reported on Oct. 14.

Newly reappointed French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu delivered his first policy address to the National Assembly, announcing the suspension of President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform until January 2028 and reiterating his pledge not to use Article 49.3 to pass a budget without a parliamentary vote, Le Figaro reported on Oct. 14.

Israel is refusing to reopen the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt on Oct. 15 in accordance with the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on Oct. 10, due to Hamas' refusal to release the majority of the remaining 24 bodies of deceased hostages in Gaza, though four more are expected to be released on Oct. 14, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 14.

In a leaked memo to the politburo of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party, or ZANU-PF, Zimbabwean Vice President Constantino Chiwenga accused four high-profile allies of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa of having looted over $3.2 billion from state coffers and warned Mnangagwa that the conditions that led to the ousting of former President Robert Mugabe were being replicated, New Zimbabwe reported on Oct. 13.

Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary preemptively declared a "landslide victory" in Cameroon's Oct. 12 presidential election, challenging long-time incumbent Paul Biya to acknowledge defeat and "respect the truth of the ballot box," Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 14.

Nigerian lawmakers submitted a bill that would bring forward the country's next general election from February or March 2027 to November 2026, The Punch reported on Oct. 13.