United Kingdom

Politics

The leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, announced that his party will not nominate a speaker for the Northern Ireland Assembly, The Irish Times reported  May 13.

U.K., EU: DUP Blocks Government Formation in Northern Ireland

Brexit

Ireland

European Disintegration

Northern Ireland First Minister Paul Givan, a member of the Democratic Unionist Party, announced his resignation in protest of Brexit trade rules, Reuters reported Feb. 3.

Northern Ireland: First Minister's Resignation Could Spark Political Turmoil, Early Elections

The Fate of the Eurozone

Australia

China

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

The United Kingdom and Australia signed the first free trade agreement that London negotiated from scratch after leaving the European Union, BBC reported Dec. 17.

Australia, U.K.: Free Trade Deal Highlights U.K. Push for Trade Influence in Asia-Pacific

Agriculture

Supply Chains

The European Commission unveiled a series of proposals aimed at reaching a compromise with the U.K. over the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, Politico reported Oct. 13.

EU, U.K.: Brussels Presents Proposals to Reduce Customs Checks at Irish Sea

Europe

The British government on July 21 unveiled a series of proposals to reform the Northern Ireland protocol of the 2019 EU-U.K. Withdrawal Agreement.

EU, U.K.: London Proposes Northern Ireland Protocol Redesign

Germany

The United Kingdom and Germany have signed a joint declaration pledging to cooperate on various defense and foreign policy issues, according to a June 30 statement issued by the U.K. government. 

Germany, U.K.: Countries Pledge to Boost Security Cooperation

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Edwin Poots, resigned as party leader on June 17, only three weeks after taking the position, Reuters reported June 17.

U.K.: Leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP Resigns After Only Three Weeks

The European Union and the United Kingdom have reached a deal on fishing quotas for 2021 and 2022, the Financial Times reported June 3, citing a statement released by the European Commission. 

U.K., EU: Negotiators Reach Deal on Fishing Rights

The United Kingdom may have voted to leave the European Union, but it can’t escape geography; it will have to define its political and economic relationships with the countries closest to it no matter what. And the process by which it does so will take years to complete. Immigration, membership in the EU internal market and the future of the British financial sector will all be points of negotiation — and of contention. Going forward, the United Kingdom will turn to a familiar strategy, one that it has employed since the end of World War II: balancing its relations with Continental Europe while strengthening ties with the United States.

The United Kingdom may have voted to leave the European Union, but it can’t escape geography; it will have to define its political and economic relationships with the countries closest to it no matter what.

EU: Regional Blocs

Assessments

Trucks on May 17, 2022, disembark a ferry at Larne port, north of Belfast, Northern Ireland. While a British government proposal to unilaterally abandon some parts of the Northern Ireland protocol is probably a negotiation tactic, it will make talks with the European Union tougher and eventually could spark a trade war. 

The proposal is probably a negotiation tactic, but it will make talks with the European Union tougher and could spark a trade war.

The U.K. Warns It May Quit Some Parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol

Michelle O'Neill (center, left) and Mary Lou McDonald -- the vice president and president, respectively, of the Irish political party Sinn Fein -- speak to reporters on May 07, 2022, after the results of Northern Ireland's legislative election were announced.

The republican party's first legislative win in the British-controlled region will revive the debate over a united Ireland, as well as EU-U.K. talks on customs controls at the Irish Sea.

What Sinn Fein's Victory in Northern Ireland Means for Reunification, Brexit Tensions

Snapshots

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves 10 Downing Street in London on Dec. 15, 2021, ahead of a Prime Minister's Questions (PMQ) session in parliament.

A series of scandals is fueling speculation that the U.K. prime minister’s party is plotting to oust him, which could change London’s EU policy direction.

What Johnson’s Political Troubles Mean for U.K.-EU Relations

Anti-Brexit protesters wave the flags of the United Kingdom, Ireland and the European Union outside the U.K. Parliament building in London on Oct. 13, 2021. 

Recent developments suggest the EU and U.K. may soon ink a deal on customs controls at the Irish Sea to avoid a costly trade war. 

An End to the Brexit Dispute Over Northern Ireland Takes Shape

Police officers stand guard as pro-British loyalists protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol at Belfast Harbour on July 3, 2021. 

London’s threat to suspend the agreement could jeopardize its free trade deal with Brussels while undermining other aspects of the bilateral relationship.

A Suspended Northern Ireland Protocol Could Snowball Into a Greater EU-U.K. Rift

A sign is seen at Stena Line's Irish Sea ferry terminal in Liverpool on Sept. 7, 2021.

While they’ve avoided short-term trade disruptions, Brussels and London still have fundamentally different goals for amending the Northern Ireland protocol. 

The EU and U.K. Reach a Temporary Truce on Northern Ireland

Police officers watch protesters rally against the Northern Ireland protocol in Belfast on July 3, 2021. 

London’s reluctance to comply with the bloc’s single market rules will keep negotiations to reform the Northern Ireland protocol at risk of collapse.

The EU Pauses Action Against the U.K., But Divides Over Northern Ireland Persist

Guidance

South Africa

United States

Japan

Mongolia

South Korea

Workers take a picture in front of the Olympic rings at the international airport in Tokyo, Japan, on July 15, 2021.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Kick-Off of the Tokyo Olympics and a High-Profile Trial in South Africa

COVID-19

Security

U.S.-China Relations

Pork sausages and beef burger patties are seen at a butcher's shop in Ballymena, Northern Ireland, on Dec. 10, 2020. 

Disputes over the long-term implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol will continue to threaten the Brexit trade deal. 

The EU and U.K. Avoid a ‘Sausage War,’ But Tensions Remain

Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon walks past her campaign bus with SNP candidate Angus Robertson in Edinburgh on May 4, 2021. 

Scotland’s governing party has promised to ask the U.K. for a second independence referendum if it wins the May 6 vote.

Previewing Scotland’s Parliamentary Elections

Northern Ireland’s first minister and leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Arlene Foster, looks at her watch outside the Parliament Buildings in Belfast.

The likely appointment of a more hard-line first minister could inspire new rounds of violence in the region, as well as disputes between the U.K. and EU.  

How the Resignation of Northern Ireland’s Leader Will Impact Brexit

Officers man a checkpoint at a harbor in Larne, Northern Ireland, on Feb. 10, 2021. 

The intensifying dispute over customs controls could prompt Brussels to retaliate with tariffs on British products.

Brexit

SITUATION REPORTS

U.K., EU: DUP Blocks Government Formation in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland: First Minister's Resignation Could Spark Political Turmoil, Early Elections

Australia, U.K.: Free Trade Deal Highlights U.K. Push for Trade Influence in Asia-Pacific

EU, U.K.: Brussels Presents Proposals to Reduce Customs Checks at Irish Sea

EU, U.K.: London Proposes Northern Ireland Protocol Redesign

Germany, U.K.: Countries Pledge to Boost Security Cooperation

U.K.: Leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP Resigns After Only Three Weeks

U.K., EU: Negotiators Reach Deal on Fishing Rights

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