With the U.K. now officially set to leave the EU single market on Dec. 31, the pressure’s on for London and Brussels to ink an agreement and avoid further disrupting their already pandemic-wrecked economies.
Expected budget cuts could reduce the bloc’s military self-sufficiency and prolong its reliance on the United States to combat threats from China and Russia.
Can the two sides reach a comprehensive trade deal before Britain's scheduled departure from the EU single market by year's end?
In light of the deepening global recession, both London and Brussels will seek to avoid a "no-deal" British exit from the EU single market on Jan. 1, increasing the chances for a limited trade deal or an extended deadline.
Should the prime minister's COVID-19 infection leave him unable to govern, his ruling Conservative Party will likely have to appoint a new leader, which could further delay U.K.-EU trade talks.
As it tears EU economies apart, the pandemic is also bringing the bloc's fragmented political climate together. Though this renewed stability will only last as long as the health crisis.
Without the U.K.'s contributions, the bloc will have to make do with less, setting the stage for squabbles over spending.
On Feb.1, the United Kingdom will relinquish its political role in the European Union. But London and Brussels' future economic ties will still hinge on how the next few months of trade negotiations pan out.
In this episode of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast, Stratfor analysts Fred Burton and Adriano Bosoni discuss the United Kingdom's upcoming exit from the European Union on Jan. 31, and the likely complex trade negotiations between Brussels and London that will follow.
An electoral victory has cleared the way for Boris Johnson to finally 'make Brexit happen' on Jan. 31. But tense EU-U.K. trade negotiations next year will likely still keep the prospect of a no-deal exit alive.
