Colombian Peace Process

Ivan Duque will attempt to bring changes to his country's peace deal with FARC and its trade talks after he takes office in August.

Without forging congressional alliances, whoever wins Colombia's upcoming elections could encounter an uphill battle trying to pass legislation.

Leaders of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia can't seem to disassociate themselves from the cocaine trade. The question for the Colombian government is how aggressively can it investigate and prosecute members of the group without reigniting the insurgency.

Intense disputes over cocaine trafficking in Colombia's southwestern Narino department have led many drug traffickers to stake their claims in Ecuador.

The path is smoother for Colombia's left to win this year's presidential elections -- which could leave Washington and mining and energy companies in for a bumpy ride.

As the deadline to pass laws enabling the agreement's key provisions nears, approaching national elections and a brewing referendum raise the risk that the agreement could unravel in 2018.

At this point, it can't be said that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia will return to militancy. But a referendum planned by the opposition to repeal key parts of the peace agreement may push it there.

The court has prohibited making amendments to Congress-approved peace agreements for the next 12 years. The Colombian government will now work to pass as much peace legislation as possible before the 2018 presidential election.

U.S. President Donald Trump admonished Colombia for its increased coca cultivation and cocaine production. Still, it's permitted the country to stay certified as a partner in the war against drugs, citing their shared law enforcement partnership and the possible return of more effective coca plant eradication.

The country's largest drug-trafficking organization and second-largest leftist militant group are redoubling their efforts to secure a peace deal with the government before the current president's term is up. But turning offers of surrender into a lasting truce will be easier said than done.