United States

China

Vietnam

Cyber

Economics

Vietnam has approved a license for SpaceX's Starlink to operate internet services in a pilot program allowing up to 600,000 subscribers that will last through 2030, with no restrictions on foreign ownership, Reuters reported March 26. 

Vietnam: Hanoi Grants Starlink Five-Year License, Tariff Reductions on U.S. Imports

United Kingdom

Environment, Science & Technology

Apple stopped offering its Advanced Data Protection feature for new users in the United Kingdom following London's January order for Apple to build a backdoor enabling the government to access encrypted user data, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 21.

U.K.: Apple Stops Offering End-to-End iCloud Encryption Service in U.K.

France

France and India will cohost the AI Action Summit in Paris on Feb. 10-11, during which attendees will look broadly at artificial intelligence risks such as environmental impact, income inequality and bias, Reuters reported on Feb. 10. 

Cyberspace, France: AI Action Summit Held in Paris

Politics

The British government ordered U.S. tech giant Apple to create a backdoor allowing London to access all encrypted iCloud content from any Apple user worldwide, The Washington Post reported on Feb. 7, citing people familiar with the matter. 

U.K.: London Orders Apple To Create Backdoor To Give Access to Content Worldwide

Pakistan

Military & Security

Pakistan's National Assembly passed amendments to the 2016 Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act granting the government extensive control over social media, including the ability to imprison users for disseminating disinformation, Geo News reported on Jan. 23. 

Pakistan: National Assembly Approves New Social Media Regulations

Europe

The European nonprofit privacy group noyb, an acronym for "none of your business," filed six complaints against AliExpress, Shein, TikTok, Temu, WeChat and Xiaomi for unlawfully transferring European users' data to China, Reuters reported on Jan. 17.

Europe: Noyb Files Complaints Against Six Chinese Companies

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a free speech argument filed by Chinese-based TikTok owner ByteDance, upholding a law that will require the Chinese company to divest itself from the social media platform or face a nationwide ban by Jan. 19, NBC News reported on Jan. 17. 

U.S.: Supreme Court Upholds Law Paving Way for TikTok Ban

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. President Joe Biden signed on Jan. 16 an executive order issuing a litany of cybersecurity directives, including bolstering federal cybersecurity measures and improving AI-powered defenses.

U.S.: Biden Issues Sweeping Cybersecurity Executive Order

<p>Individuals, companies, governments and militaries alike all depend on computers. And as is so often the case, these dependencies create vulnerabilities that have made cybersecurity all the more important as proficiencies in cyber warfare and cyber crime improve. That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age. How governments and their constituents attune themselves to this brave new world will ultimately shape their relationship with the internet &mdash; and with each other.</p>

That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age.

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Security

Modernizing China’s Military

Globalization

Echoes of the Cold War

China in Transition

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Global Elections

U.S.-Iran Relations

A photo of the U.S. Capitol overlaid with a pixilated blue and red pattern.

The United States will continue to prioritize AI innovation over regulation, and the European Union is set to partially reconsider its rules amid a broader push to increase competitiveness. 

The Future of AI Regulation Under the West's New Leadership

Iran

Israel

Syria

Russia

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Media

Podcasts

What is Salt Typhoon, and what happened in the recent hack against U.S. telecommunications companies? 

Essential Geopolitics: Unpacking China's Salt Typhoon Operation

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Columns

On Geopolitics

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Snapshots

Germany

The U.S. and EU flags.

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Indian soldiers walk along a road near the Zojila mountain pass that connects to Ladakh, bordering China, on Feb. 28, 2021. 

While their recent efforts to ease bilateral tensions will probably reduce the risk of border clashes, deep-seated mistrust between the two strategic rivals will very likely limit the scope of any reconciliation. 

After a Tense Few Years, India and China Try To Turn Down the Heat

A digital illustration shows a map of the United States.

The tight race and its perceived existential stakes portend further violent threats in the days leading up to and after the Nov. 5 election.

The U.S. Braces for a Turbulent – and Potentially Violent – End to the Election

How do foreign adversaries view the upcoming U.S. general election, and what could that mean for the cyber threat landscape?

Essential Geopolitics: Cyber Concerns Ahead of the U.S. Election

Cyber

SITUATION REPORTS

Vietnam: Hanoi Grants Starlink Five-Year License, Tariff Reductions on U.S. Imports

U.K.: Apple Stops Offering End-to-End iCloud Encryption Service in U.K.

Cyberspace, France: AI Action Summit Held in Paris

U.K.: London Orders Apple To Create Backdoor To Give Access to Content Worldwide

Pakistan: National Assembly Approves New Social Media Regulations

Europe: Noyb Files Complaints Against Six Chinese Companies

U.S.: Supreme Court Upholds Law Paving Way for TikTok Ban

U.S.: Biden Issues Sweeping Cybersecurity Executive Order

Forecasts

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