In this Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue speaks with Senior Europe analyst Adriano Bosoni about data coming from Europe that suggests that the Continent's economic outlook is quite negative.
A victory by an opposition candidate would further thwart Warsaw’s ability to pass policy at a time of mounting economic uncertainty due to COVID-19.
High debt and deficit levels will raise the risk of sovereign defaults, especially in Southern Europe, as high unemployment creates fertile ground for social unrest and political extremism across the currency area.
Expected budget cuts could reduce the bloc’s military self-sufficiency and prolong its reliance on the United States to combat threats from China and Russia.
An abrupt end of the ECB's bond-purchasing program as Italy's borrowing costs are going up could trigger a financial crisis in the eurozone.
By jeopardizing one of the EU’s bond-buying programs, the decision risks increasing borrowing costs at a time of skyrocketing debt due to the COVID-19 crisis.
The economic fallout could result in Brussels abandoning plans to shift spending from agriculture and infrastructure policies to new areas such as climate change.
The bloc has agreed to grant countries in distress access to its permanent bailout fund, though the debate over how to best support Europe's quarantined economies is far from over.
France, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal will experience deep recessions long after the immediate health crisis, which could give rise to another wave destabilizing nationalist movements.
As southern and northern states clash over the best way forward in Brussels, national governments have largely been left to contend with the economic fallout alone.
