United States

Iran

Energy

The United States confiscated a 115,000-ton Iranian oil cargo aboard an Iranian-flagged ship, which has been off the coast of Greece since March, Reuters reported May 26.

Iran, U.S.: Washington Confiscates Iranian Oil Cargo Near Greece

Iran's Arc of Influence

U.S.-Iran Relations

Politics

Military & Security

Iran reportedly secured secret International Atomic Energy Agency reports between 2004 and 2006 to help officials prepare cover stories for and obfuscate Iran's previous nuclear activities, The Wall Street Journal reported May 25, citing Middle East intelligence officials and documents the journal saw.

Iran: Two Leaks Aim to Disrupt Nuclear Negotiations

Security

Venezuela

Economics

Iranian state oil and gas firms have started negotiations with Caracas to restore Venezuela's Paraguana Refinery Complex, which has the capacity to refine 955,000 barrels of oil per day, making it the country's largest oil refinery, Reuters reported May 23.

Venezuela: Iran to Help Revamp Venezuela's Largest Oil Refinery

Venezuela's Unraveling

Russia

Israel

Syria

A Russian S-300 missile system in northwest Syria fired on Israeli jets on May 13 during an Israeli air raid on targets near Masyaf, The Times of Israel reported May 17.

Israel, Russia: Russians Reportedly Fire on Israeli Jet in Syria

The Syrian Civil War

Israel's Survival Strategy

Venezuela's state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA imported 200,000 barrels of Iranian heavy crude oil in April and another 400,000 barrels the week of May 9, Reuters reported May 9.

Venezuela: Country to Begin Importing Iranian Heavy Crude Oil

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi told the European Parliament that he was extremely concerned about the "traces of enriched uranium in places that had never been declared by Iran" that his agency identified, Reuters reported May 10.

Iran: IAEA Chief Raises Concern About Undeclared Enrichment

On the night of April 26-27, Israeli forces targeted military sites in Damascus with ballistic missiles and struck a weapons depot (along with as many as four other targets in the Damascus area), killing at least four Syrian soldiers and wounding three others, Reuters reported April 27.

Syria: Israel Strikes Targets Near Damascus, May Have Killed Iranian Personnel

Saudi Arabia

Iran and Saudi Arabia held their fifth round of bilateral talks in Iraq on April 21, and the two sides discussed visa allotments for Iranians who are making their hajj pilgrimages, politically settling the Yemen conflict, and other matters, Al Jazeera reported April 23.

Iran, Saudi Arabia: Countries Hold Fifth Round of De-escalation Talks

The Saudi Survival Strategy

Iran’s domain in the Middle East stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. It maintains this arc of influence through its use of militant proxies, political agents and economic relationships, fending off challenges to its power from Sunni rivals in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Iran’s nuclear program, meanwhile, will continue to test relations with the West. But for all the program’s controversy, it is unlikely to spark a serious confrontation with the United States — Iran will instead leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of all globally traded crude oil passes. In fact, some of the biggest challenges to Iranian power will come not from without but from within as new generations of Iranians drift further from the religious principles — principles guarded by the still-strong clerical elite — on which the revolution was founded.

Iran’s domain in the Middle East stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.

Iraq

Lebanon

The Yemen Civil War

Turkey's Resurgence

The Battle for Mosul

A Crude Recovery

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

The Pulse of Political Islam

The Jihadist Wars

Assessments

A pedestrian walks past a mural depicting the Iranian national flag in Tehran, Iran. 

The backlash against Raisi less than a year into his presidency reflects Iranians’ thinning patience with their country’s persistently weak economy -- and their leaders’ empty promises to fix it.

What the Protests in Iran Mean for Its President and Nuclear Talks

Columns

On Geopolitics

United Arab Emirates

The UAE's newly-elected president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, looks on during a meeting in Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2022. 

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed "MbZ" Al Nahyan could rule over the country for the next 25 years, giving him plenty of time to impress his vision for the future on both the UAE and the wider region.

The UAE Enters a New Era Under President MbZ

Snapshots

A Lebanese army vehicle patrols a road in a southern Lebanese town close to the border with Israel on April 25, 2022. 

While Lebanon-Israel normalization is unlikely, growing talk of it by Lebanese Christian leaders could fuel anger at pro-Iran groups like Hezbollah seen as standing in the way.

In Lebanon, Calls for 'Neutrality' Toward Israel Risk Worsening Sectarian Violence

Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi is seen in Jerusalem on Nov. 29, 2021, after Israeli Prime Minister Bennett said Iran was re-entering talks on its nuclear program to seek sanctions relief in exchange for ''almost nothing.''

Cyber

While it remains remote, the risk of a major conflict breaking out between the two regional rivals is slowly growing.

Recent Attacks Bring Israel and Iran's Covert War to Light

Europe

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani (center) is seen leaving the venue in Vienna, Austria, where Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks have been held on March 11, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

JPCOA talks have hit a wall as Moscow tries to thwart the West's ability to maintain Ukraine-related sanctions by bringing more Iranian oil online.

For Iran Nuclear Talks, Russia's Final-Hour Curveball Could Prove Fatal

Guidance

Costa Rica

Australia

China

Fiji

Japan

Ukraine

Belarus

India

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) speaks with his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, on Feb. 3, 2022, in Minsk, Belarus. NATO expects 30,000 Russian troops to arrive in Belarus by the Feb. 10 start of the second phase of the "Allied Resolve" exercise, the most Russian troops present in the country since the Cold War era.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Australia for a Quad Meeting, Russia and Belarus Begin Joint Exercises

The Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

A more pragmatic Israeli approach to a possible limited nuclear deal with Iran could extend the life of any JCPOA breakthrough.

Israel Changes Tack on the Iran Nuclear Deal

The U.S. and Iranian flags are seen on a stage during nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

If nuclear talks fail, ransomware attacks could enable Tehran to disrupt U.S. critical infrastructure and key sectors as part of an aggressive escalation campaign. 

For Iran, Ransomware Offers a Way to Attack the U.S. From Within

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani (right) and members of his delegation are seen leaving the venue of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks in Vienna, Austria, on Dec. 3, 2021. 

As the gap between what Tehran wants and what the West is willing to accept grows, so too will the risk of negotiations collapsing without even a limited deal.

Iran Nuclear Talks Reach a Critical Juncture

Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani (right) meets with the United Arab Emirates’ security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Tehran on Dec. 6, 2021. 

The high-level visit to Tehran reflects the UAE’s desire for increased dialogue with its long-time regional rival for the sake of security and economic benefits. 

A Rare UAE-Iran Meeting Stirs Hope for Eased Gulf Tensions

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi speaks during a conference in Baghdad on Aug. 28, 2021. 

Iran-backed militiamen’s failed attack will raise the risk of violence with Iraqi state forces, though it could also bring new clarity to government formation talks.

What the Assassination Attempt on al-Khadimi Means for Iraq’s Stability

Ebrahim Raisi holds a press conference in Tehran on June 21, 2021, after winning Iran's presidential election. 

Tehran’s push to revisit key sticking points bodes ill for a quick compromise once negotiations in Vienna resume later this month.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Are Back On -- For Now

Iran's Arc of Influence

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran, U.S.: Washington Confiscates Iranian Oil Cargo Near Greece

Iran: Two Leaks Aim to Disrupt Nuclear Negotiations

Venezuela: Iran to Help Revamp Venezuela's Largest Oil Refinery

Israel, Russia: Russians Reportedly Fire on Israeli Jet in Syria

Venezuela: Country to Begin Importing Iranian Heavy Crude Oil

Iran: IAEA Chief Raises Concern About Undeclared Enrichment

Syria: Israel Strikes Targets Near Damascus, May Have Killed Iranian Personnel

Iran, Saudi Arabia: Countries Hold Fifth Round of De-escalation Talks

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