Iran's Arc of Influence

Iran’s domain in the Middle East stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. It maintains this arc of influence through its use of militant proxies, political agents and economic relationships, fending off challenges to its power from Sunni rivals in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Iran’s nuclear program, meanwhile, will continue to test relations with the West. But for all the program’s controversy, it is unlikely to spark a serious confrontation with the United States — Iran will instead leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of all globally traded crude oil passes. In fact, some of the biggest challenges to Iranian power will come not from without but from within as new generations of Iranians drift further from the religious principles — principles guarded by the still-strong clerical elite — on which the revolution was founded.

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Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meet in Beijing on May 17, 2019.

Columns May 20, 2019 | 05:30 GMTMay 20, 2019

Where Does Iran Fit in a World Defined by Great Power Competition?

Trade wars, tech wars, North Korean missile tests, an attempted coup in Venezuela and the growing threat of another Mideast conflict. It's time to take a moment to figure out what's what.

By Reva Goujon

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, give a joint press conference following their talks in Moscow on May 8, 2019.

Guidance May 16, 2019 | 20:15 GMTMay 16, 2019

Russia, Iran: Anticipating Moscow's Next Move Amid Heightened U.S. Pressure

To build up leverage in negotiations with Washington, Russia could carefully increase its support to Iran in the weeks ahead.

Iranian demonstrators raise placards and portraits of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as they chant anti-US slogans during a rally in the capital Tehran, on May 10 2019.

Podcasts May 16, 2019 | 16:15 GMTMay 16, 2019

The Knowns and Unknowns of the Situation Developing Between the United States and Iran

In this Stratfor Talks podcast, Emily Hawthorne and Rodger Baker discuss the intricacies of the escalation between the United States and Iran.

Protesters pretend to hit a man wearing a mask of U.S. President Donald Trump during an April 12, 2019, rally in the Iranian capital of Tehran.

Assessments May 16, 2019 | 10:00 GMTMay 16, 2019

Increasing U.S. Sanctions Pressure Raises the Risks of Iranian Retaliation

Were Iran to decide to retaliate for Western sanctions, it would have numerous options at its disposal.

Defiance in the face of U.S. pressure has been the hallmark of Iranian foreign policy for decades. But the current confrontation between the United States and Iran is breaking new ground.

Assessments May 15, 2019 | 20:50 GMTMay 15, 2019

The U.S.-Iran Confrontation: How Did We Get Here?

Assembled in this compendium are a number of essential Stratfor analyses that set the scene for the current phase of escalation between the United States and Iran.

This photo shows remains of drones alleged to have been used by Houthi rebels in Yemen

Guidance May 14, 2019 | 22:19 GMTMay 14, 2019

A Saudi Pipeline Attack Amps Up Suspicions on the Arabian Peninsula

A damaging drone strike closely following a weekend tanker incident raises concerns that an Iranian campaign is targeting Gulf oil production -- but other explanations are possible.

A picture taken on May 13, 2019, shows the crude oil tanker Amjad, one of two Saudi tankers that were reportedly damaged in mysterious "sabotage attacks," off the coast of the Gulf emirate of Fujairah.

Guidance May 13, 2019 | 20:41 GMTMay 13, 2019

The Suspected Sabotage of Oil Tankers Puts the Persian Gulf on High Alert

Despite the standoff between Iran and its regional adversaries, cooler heads have so far prevailed following a purported attack on oil tankers in the UAE over the weekend. When new information comes to light, however, that could change.