Iran's Arc of Influence

Despite anticipating that protests would likely follow, Iranian leaders reduced popular fuel subsidies, demonstrating the extent of the strain on the country's economy.

As sanctions take a deeper bite from Iran's economy, Tehran will continue to escalate its campaign to win relief by threatening to push the nuclear envelope.

Several events over the next six weeks could trigger Iranian belligerence if Tehran decides to continue its aggressive response to the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign.

Major Lebanese patrons like Iran and its top rivals could be forced to update their positions if the country's escalating unrest succeeds in forcing real political change.

If Israeli forces were responsible, it would fit into a pattern of a more robust and increasingly expansive effort by Israel against Iran and its allies.

The countries' air defenses are ill-equipped to stop Israeli strikes on their soil. Improving their capabilities, however, might open a whole new can of worms.

To deter future attacks on its vital oil sector, Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly weighing whether its next move should be a step closer, or further, from Iran.

Still smarting from Tehran's attacks on its oil facilities two weeks ago, Riyadh finds itself between a rock and a hard place in deciding how to respond.

Iran could gain if growing political, economic and security stressors lead to a change of leadership in Baghdad.