Iran's Arc of Influence

Tehran will aim to balance increased cooperation with Beijing by pursuing sanctions relief from the U.S. and overall deeper ties with Western countries.

The need to secure sanctions relief will limit Iran's response to the suspected act of Israeli sabotage, though any retaliation will increase global scrutiny on the newly restarted nuclear talks.

As its tit-for-tat dynamic with Israel escalates, Iran may be forced to expand both the geographic scope and focus of its attacks.

Tehran will reject any demands to cut ties with regional militias, raising the risk for more violence in conflict zones like Iraq.

The White House’s renewed criticism of the kingdom’s leadership and human rights record will undoubtedly clash with Riyadh’s own imperatives.

Israel’s push to cut deals with Syria via vaccines could prompt it to pursue a similar strategy to thaw its more difficult relationship with Lebanon.

While it may help mitigate some of the West's concerns, Tehran’s move to extend U.N. access to its nuclear sites won’t sit well with the country’s conservative lawmakers.

With sanctions relief on the line, Tehran will likely ramp up its aggressive behavior in the hopes of driving Washington to the table more quickly.

Israel is signaling its readiness to attack Iran in the hopes of securing a tougher and more comprehensive U.S.-brokered deal.