South Africa

Politics

Military & Security

Julius Malema, the leader of South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, recently visited several restaurants in the Mall of Africa north of Johannesburg to determine the ratio of foreign-born to South African employees, Daily Maverick reported Jan. 19.

South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighters Party Spurs Xenophobia, Increasing Risk of Violence

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Security

Economics

South Africa’s Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo published the first of three reports of the so-called "Zondo Commission," which was set up in 2018 to investigate corruption during former South African President Jacob Zuma’s presidency, Reuters reported Jan. 5.

South Africa: Probe's First Report Accuses Former President of Systemic Corruption

South Africa’s Constitutional Court sentenced former President Jacob Zuma to 15 months in prison after finding him guilty of contempt of court, News24 reported June 29. The chief justice of the court said that Zuma has five days to turn himself in.  

South Africa: Former President Sentenced to 15 Months in Jail 

Environment, Science & Technology

The South African Treasury unveiled its 2020 Medium-Term Budget Statement on Oct. 28, which projects the country’s gross debt-to-GDP to peak at 95.3 percent of GDP in 2025-26 after stabilizing its debt within the next five years via austerity measures, including a proposed three-year wage freeze in the public sector. 

South Africa: Latest Budget Outlook to Widen Gap Between Government, Unions

COVID-19

South Africa’s economy contracted by more than expected in the second quarter, declining by an annualized, seasonally adjusted 51.0 percent compared to an expected 44.5 percent decline, Statistics South Africa reported Sept. 8. 

South Africa: GDP Figures Show Larger-Than-Expected Contraction in Q2

South African Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said the government was not seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, or any other financial assistance that would require structural economic reforms, Reuters reported April 14.

South Africa: Government Not Considering COVID-19 Bailout From IMF

South Africa's central bank announced it will buy government bonds in an effort to boost market liquidity and help the country's banks fund their operations amid growing COVID-19 concerns, Reuters reported March 25.

South Africa: Central Bank Announces Bond-Buying Program to Counter COVID-19 Impact

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that the country will go into a 21-day lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak beginning March 26 at midnight, News24 reported March 24. 

South Africa: Ramaphosa Orders 21-Day National Lockdown to Contain COVID-19 

The African National Congress has ruled South Africa since Nelson Mandela became the country’s first president of the post-apartheid era. But its support is dwindling, thanks in part to generational changes, structural economic issues, and the rise of a black middle class that demands improved service delivery and governance. And while it will continue to be the first among equals in South African politics, the cracks that have emerged in its base may force the ANC to revert to the more socialist policies of its founding. Were that to happen, it would be less inclined to accommodate the businesses that keep its economy afloat.

The African National Congress has ruled South Africa since Nelson Mandela became the country’s first president of the post-Apartheid era, but its support is dwindling.

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Assessments

Striking workers affiliated with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) sing outside of Sibanye-Stillwater's Driefontein gold mine near Carletonville, South Africa, on May 6, 2022.

The country will likely see more disruptive strikes as rising living costs push mining and public-sector unions to make ambitious (and likely unattainable) demands.

South Africa's Powerful Labor Unions Dig in for Tough Wage Negotiations

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gives a statement during a summit at the European Union in Brussels, Belgium, on Feb. 18, 2022. 

The government’s revenue gains from high commodity prices will offer only temporary relief if it doesn’t undertake more politically challenging, structural economic reforms. 

Reading Between the Lines of South Africa’s 2022 Budget

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers his State of the Nation address in Cape Town, South Africa, on Feb. 10, 2022.

The added budgetary strain from financing another year of monthly payments risks derailing Pretoria’s growth-focused reform agenda.

In South Africa, Extended Welfare Spending Highlights Warring Economic Priorities

Passengers wait to check in for one of the last international flights out of Cape Town, South Africa, after countries began imposing travel bans to contain the spread of the new Omicron COVID-19 variant on Nov. 29, 2021. 

Travel bans to contain the new COVID-19 variant will devastate the country’s tourism industry, increasing inequality levels and opposition to government spending cuts.

Omicron Deals Another Blow to South Africa’s Struggling Economy

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (center) addresses supporters of his African National Congress (ANC) party during a rally ahead of local government elections in a township north of Pretoria on Oct. 15, 2021. 

The results of recent municipal elections reflect South Africans' anger with the ruling party, which will struggle to impose the reforms needed to improve the country's business environment.

The ANC’s Record Electoral Defeat Bodes Ill for South Africa’s Economic Stability

The towers of a coal-fired power state are seen on the outskirts of Pretoria, South Africa, on Oct. 13, 2021. 

Energy

Corruption, funding gaps and political pressure will make it difficult for Africa’s largest carbon emitter to significantly cut its reliance on coal.

What Stands in the Way of South Africa’s New Climate Goals

Environmental Issues

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (center) visits a mall in Soweto that was damaged by looters on July 18, 2021.

Even with new ministers, Ramaphosa will struggle to implement reforms amid the political and security crises caused by his predecessor’s recent arrest. 


South Africa’s President Tries to Consolidate Power With a Cabinet Reshuffle

Snapshots

A police officer scans a looted retail store in central Durban, South Africa, on July 11, 2021. 

The military presence will risk triggering more clashes with Zuma’s supporters, which would only reinforce their perception that his detainment was politically motivated.

South African Troops Deployed Amid Violence Over Former President’s Arrest

A man holds new South African banknotes of the South African rand on July 13, 2018, in Pretoria, South Africa. 

Domestic political and financial constraints will thwart Pretoria’s new economic recovery plan, prolonging the country’s five-year financial crisis. 

South Africa’s Economic Reality Will Dim Any Hopes of a Quick Recovery 

People stand in line to receive grant payments from the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA) in Khayelitsha, a township located near Cape Town, on May 4, 2020. 

South Africa will likely miss its recently adjusted budget targets as the country’s escalating COVID-19 outbreak delays much-needed austerity measures, leaving its economy in shambles for at least another five years.

South Africa's Budget Outlook Paints a Picture of a Lost Decade

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South Korean soldiers gather near a guard post in the border city of Paju, South Korea, on June 17, 2020.

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Echoes of the Cold War

India's Own Worst Enemy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Inter-Korea and China-India Tensions, and Serbia-Kosovo Mediation

While intended to mitigate the immediate fallout from lockdown measures, the additional spending will jeopardize the country’s long-term financial sustainability.

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

SITUATION REPORTS

South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighters Party Spurs Xenophobia, Increasing Risk of Violence

South Africa: Probe's First Report Accuses Former President of Systemic Corruption

South Africa: Former President Sentenced to 15 Months in Jail

South Africa: Latest Budget Outlook to Widen Gap Between Government, Unions

South Africa: GDP Figures Show Larger-Than-Expected Contraction in Q2

South Africa: Government Not Considering COVID-19 Bailout From IMF

South Africa: Central Bank Announces Bond-Buying Program to Counter COVID-19 Impact

South Africa: Ramaphosa Orders 21-Day National Lockdown to Contain COVID-19

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