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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The week from Dec. 30 to Jan. 5 marked Russia's slowest rate of advance in Ukraine since July, while in December, the Russian military halved the rate of its offensive advances in Ukraine compared with the previous month, Agentstvo reported on Jan. 6. 

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

A Russian air defense system was responsible for the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 on Dec. 25 near the Kazakh city of Aktau, which killed 38 people, Euronews reported Dec. 26, citing unidentified Azerbaijani government sources familiar with a preliminary investigation.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Finland

Finnish authorities have seized and boarded a Russian oil tanker suspected of intentionally damaging an electricity sea cable connecting Estonia and Finland on Dec. 25, the Financial Times reported Dec. 26.

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Slovakia

Energy

Politics

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Dec. 22, in a visit that had not been announced in advance, the Financial Times reported the same day.

Slovakia, Russia: Slovak PM Meets with Putin in Surprise Visit to Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready for negotiations and unspecified "compromises" regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the BBC reported on Dec. 19. 

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

The head of the Russian military's nuclear, biological and chemical protection forces, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, was killed in an apparent assassination when an improvised explosive device attached to an electric scooter exploded outside his apartment, AP reported on Dec. 17.

Ukraine, Russia: High-Ranking Russian General Killed in Assassination

Russia conducted a mass airstrike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure using 93 missiles and over 200 drones, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 13.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Mass Air Attack on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

France

Poland

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 12 to discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the hypothetical deployment of a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in the event of a deal between incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Politico reported on Dec. 11.

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

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A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

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As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

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2024: A Geopolitical Review

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Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

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Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

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The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

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United Kingdom

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Slovakia, Russia: Slovak PM Meets with Putin in Surprise Visit to Moscow

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

Ukraine, Russia: High-Ranking Russian General Killed in Assassination

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Mass Air Attack on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

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