Qatar

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia and Ukraine, with the mediation of Qatar, are set to resume preliminary negotiations on a mutual cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported Oct. 29. 

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks About Halting Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Military & Security

Russian troops have advanced 470 sq km (181 sq miles) in eastern Ukraine in October, their biggest monthly territorial gain since March 2022, AFP reported Oct. 28, citing data from the Institute for the Study of War. 

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Advancing at Fastest Pace Since 2022

Economics

Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to a record high of 21%, even higher than the emergency rate of 20% initially introduced after the start of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, AP reported on Oct. 25. 

Russia: Central Bank Raises Key Interest Rate to Record 21%

North Korea

Russian lawmakers voted unanimously to ratify the comprehensive bilateral strategic cooperation treaty Russia signed with North Korea in June, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 24.

Russia, North Korea: Russia Ratifies Defense Treaty With North Korea

Politics

The Group of Seven nations plan to keep Russian assets frozen even after the Russia-Ukraine war ends, and G7 leaders will reportedly release a statement on the issue as early as Oct. 25, when G7 finance ministers will meet in Washington, D.C., to discuss the terms of future loans to Ukraine, Nikkei reported on Oct. 22. 

Ukraine, Russia: G7 To Keep Russian Assets Frozen Even After Russia-Ukraine War

South Korea

After a meeting of South Korea's presidential National Security Council, Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo warned of phased response measures in proportion to the degree of North Korea-Russia military cooperation in the Russia-Ukraine war, Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct. 22.

South Korea, Ukraine: Seoul Considers Sending Arms, Intelligence Officials to Ukraine

South Korea's National Intelligence Service confirmed North Korea decided to send four brigades with a total of 12,000 troops to support Russia in its war with Ukraine, adding that the North Korean forces had been issued Russian military uniforms, weapons and fake identification documents, Reuters reported on Oct. 18.

North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: North Korean Forces Training in Russia To Participate in War With Ukraine

Russian troops established two footholds in territory west of the Seversky Donets Canal inside Ukraine's town of Chasiv Yar after renewing their offensive earlier the same week, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 18.

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Enter Chasiv Yar, Crossing Canal

Assessments

Germany

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

The Hywind Tampen floating offshore wind farm, situated between energy company Equinor's oil and gas fields Snorre and Gullfaks in the Norwegian North Sea off the coast of Bergen.

Energy

The likelihood of Russian attacks targeting Europe's offshore energy infrastructure is increasing, but Moscow is likely to avoid actions that could cause major disruptions.

Russia's Increasingly Aggressive Sabotage Threatens Europe's Offshore Energy Network

Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

Mozambique

Brazil

United States

Iran

Israel

Tunisia

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Snapshots

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Media

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Forecast Webcast

Environment, Science & Technology

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Global Elections

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Europe

United Kingdom

Italy

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Cyber

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Palestinian Territories

Australia

Samoa

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Nauru

New Zealand

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

Tonga

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Vanuatu

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a flag during a ceremony on Ukraine's Independence Day on Aug. 24, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

The Weekly Rundown: Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Resume, Ukraine Observes Third Post-Invasion Independence Day

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Columns

On Geopolitics

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Podcasts

How would a Trump administration's Ukraine policy differ from a Harris administration's Ukraine policy? 

Essential Geopolitics: What a Trump Presidency Would Mean for the Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks About Halting Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Advancing at Fastest Pace Since 2022

Russia: Central Bank Raises Key Interest Rate to Record 21%

Russia, North Korea: Russia Ratifies Defense Treaty With North Korea

Ukraine, Russia: G7 To Keep Russian Assets Frozen Even After Russia-Ukraine War

South Korea, Ukraine: Seoul Considers Sending Arms, Intelligence Officials to Ukraine

North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: North Korean Forces Training in Russia To Participate in War With Ukraine

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Enter Chasiv Yar, Crossing Canal

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