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Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. State Department approved a possible $108.1 million Foreign Military Sale to Ukraine for HAWK Missile System Sustainment and related equipment, Reuters reported May 21.

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Administration Approves HAWK Air Defense Support Package

Russia

In a May 21 post on Telegram, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Ukrainian Security Service's Alpha special forces unit struck a Russian Federal Security Service's (FSB) facility and destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system on occupied Ukrainian territory, killing and wounding about 100 Russian personnel.

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Reports Strike on Russian FSB Headquarters in Occupied Territory

China

China's armed forces covertly trained approximately 200 Russian military personnel in drone warfare and combat tactics in late 2025, and some of those soldiers have since returned to fight in Ukraine, Reuters reported on May 19, citing three European intelligence agencies.

China, Russia: Beijing Reportedly Provided Covert Military Training to Russian Troops

Energy

Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow since March 2025 on May 17, killing at least three people in the Moscow region, Reuters reported the same day. 

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Drone Barrage Pierces Moscow's Shield

Russia carried out one of its heaviest aerial attacks against Ukraine since the war began in 2022, targeting Kyiv and multiple other regions with large waves of drones and missiles, Interfax-Ukraine reported on May 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Record Russian Air Assault Shows No End to War Is in Sight

Politics

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must order Ukraine's armed forces to stop firing and leave the Donbas and other Russian-claimed regions before Moscow and Kyiv can enter peace talks, Kommersant reported on May 13.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Bets on More Donbas Gains Before Serious Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire on May 9-11 and a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, according to his May 8 Truth Social post. 

Russia, Ukraine: Trump Announces Three-Day Victory Day Ceasefire

Iran

Europe

European Council President Antonio Costa said the European Union is preparing for potential future talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and is consulting EU leaders on how to organize a possible European approach to Moscow with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's support, the Financial Times reported on May 8.

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Europe Prepares Russia Channel as U.S.-Led Talks Stall

Assessments

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

Economics

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Snapshots

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Eurasia

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Israel

Denmark

France

Italy

The European Parliament building in 2019 in Strasbourg, France. Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote on the EU‑U.S. Trade Framework, the Iran Conflict Continues

U.S.-Iran Relations

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.

The current surge in demand for Russian oil will likely be short-lived, but weaker sanctions enforcement and higher energy prices could nonetheless buoy Moscow's capacity to fund its war in Ukraine.

In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks

Japan

A large plume of smoke rises March 7 over Tehran after explosions were reported in the Iranian capital during the night.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump

A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a truck equipped with a machine gun during an air raid alert in Kyiv on Jan. 24, 2026, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts despite mounting economic strain, combined with the U.S.'s new focus on Iran, makes meaningful progress in peace talks unlikely anytime soon.

Ukraine War Enters Its Fifth Year, With No Near End in Sight

City authorities and businesses rebuild residential buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, 2023.

While European governments can fund Ukraine's war effort this year and next, securing the investment needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure will face significant political, economic and structural hurdles.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Palestinian Territories

Indonesia

Vietnam

Slovakia

Hungary

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Administration Approves HAWK Air Defense Support Package

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Reports Strike on Russian FSB Headquarters in Occupied Territory

China, Russia: Beijing Reportedly Provided Covert Military Training to Russian Troops

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Drone Barrage Pierces Moscow's Shield

Russia, Ukraine: Record Russian Air Assault Shows No End to War Is in Sight

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Bets on More Donbas Gains Before Serious Talks

Russia, Ukraine: Trump Announces Three-Day Victory Day Ceasefire

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Europe Prepares Russia Channel as U.S.-Led Talks Stall

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