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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree formalizing changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold for nuclear use and clarified the list of threats that could warrant a nuclear response, including aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear-armed country, Reuters reported on Nov. 19.

Russia: Putin Signed Russia's Revised Nuclear Doctrine

On the 1000th day of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian forces carried out their first attack with U.S.-produced ATACMS missiles inside of Russia, striking an ammunition storage facility in Karashev in the Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, Bloomberg reported Nov. 19.

Ukraine: Country Conducts First Strike Inside Russia Using U.S.-Made ATACMS Missiles

North Korea

According to Ukrainian officials and a new U.S. assessment, 50,000 Russian and North Korean forces will begin a renewed assault on Ukrainian positions in Russia’s Kursk region in the coming days, The New York Times reported on Nov. 10.

Russia, Ukraine, North Korea: Russia To Step Up Attacks on Kursk in Coming Days

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's transition team is discussing elements of a "peace plan" for the Russia-Ukraine war as part of a break from outgoing President Joe Biden's approach of letting Kyiv dictate when peace talks should begin, The Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 7.

U.S., Ukraine, Russia: Alleged Trump Peace Plan Includes NATO Freeze

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said about 8,000 of the around 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia had already arrived in Russia's Kursk region, Reuters reported on Oct. 31.

North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: 8,000 North Koreans Already in Kursk, Yet To Enter Combat

Qatar

Russia and Ukraine, with the mediation of Qatar, are set to resume preliminary negotiations on a mutual cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported Oct. 29. 

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks About Halting Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Russian troops have advanced 470 sq km (181 sq miles) in eastern Ukraine in October, their biggest monthly territorial gain since March 2022, AFP reported Oct. 28, citing data from the Institute for the Study of War. 

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Advancing at Fastest Pace Since 2022

Economics

Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to a record high of 21%, even higher than the emergency rate of 20% initially introduced after the start of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, AP reported on Oct. 25. 

Russia: Central Bank Raises Key Interest Rate to Record 21%

Snapshots

France

United Kingdom

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

Columns

On Geopolitics

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Assessments

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Global Elections

Mexico

Iran

Israel

China

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Germany

The U.S. and EU flags.

Cyber

Energy

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

The Hywind Tampen floating offshore wind farm, situated between energy company Equinor's oil and gas fields Snorre and Gullfaks in the Norwegian North Sea off the coast of Bergen.

The likelihood of Russian attacks targeting Europe's offshore energy infrastructure is increasing, but Moscow is likely to avoid actions that could cause major disruptions.

Russia's Increasingly Aggressive Sabotage Threatens Europe's Offshore Energy Network

Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: Putin Signed Russia's Revised Nuclear Doctrine

Ukraine: Country Conducts First Strike Inside Russia Using U.S.-Made ATACMS Missiles

Russia, Ukraine, North Korea: Russia To Step Up Attacks on Kursk in Coming Days

U.S., Ukraine, Russia: Alleged Trump Peace Plan Includes NATO Freeze

North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: 8,000 North Koreans Already in Kursk, Yet To Enter Combat

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine and Russia Resume Talks About Halting Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Advancing at Fastest Pace Since 2022

Russia: Central Bank Raises Key Interest Rate to Record 21%

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