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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia launched a large overnight missile and drone attack against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, killing at least 21 people in the capital and injuring more than 90, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on July 2.

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

In a June 26 letter to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ukraine argued that it could legally attack Russian shadow fleet vessels, contending tankers transporting Russian oil and gas should be treated as ordinary commercial ships, given their role in generating revenue for Russia's war effort, the Financial Times reported June 30.

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Energy

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia may import fuel if Moscow reaches supply agreements at acceptable prices, calling imports another step toward stabilizing the domestic market and reducing panic demand, TASS reported June 30.

Russia: Kremlin Confirms Fuel Import Talks as Ukrainian Strikes Strain Supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to continue talks with U.S. envoys on ending the war in Ukraine but rejected proposals for a mutual halt to long-range strikes and for limiting fighting to the four occupied Ukrainian regions, Bloomberg reported June 28.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Are Causing Fuel Shortages, but Rejects Truce Proposal

Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov that Minsk does not want to be drawn into the war against Ukraine, saying he had repeatedly discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin why Belarus did not want to fight Ukrainians, BelTA reported on June 25.

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had begun pulling air defense systems from other regions and from occupied Ukrainian territory to reinforce the defense of Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 24.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

During a meeting with military academy graduates, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russian forces were close to securing the contested Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka, Interfax reported on June 23.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Escalates War Rhetoric Amid Intensifying Ukrainian Deep Strikes

Ukrainian missiles struck the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant, a sanctioned defense facility that produces integrated circuits and power modules for Russian missiles, including Kh-101 and Iskander systems, Vedomosti reported on June 22.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Deep Strikes Stretch Russia's War Machine

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Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

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Forecast Webcast

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

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A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Snapshots

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Russia: Kremlin Confirms Fuel Import Talks as Ukrainian Strikes Strain Supplies

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Are Causing Fuel Shortages, but Rejects Truce Proposal

Belarus, Russia: Lukashenko Says Belarus Does Not Want To Fight Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Escalates War Rhetoric Amid Intensifying Ukrainian Deep Strikes

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Deep Strikes Stretch Russia's War Machine

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