A tumultuous run-up to the late 2020 vote and a more fragmented postelection government could inhibit reforms that would draw more foreign capital, giving China room to amplify its influence over its southern neighbor.
If a "phase one" deal is reached, the alternating cycles of escalation and truces in the trade war could change -- though deeper divides will persist.
GlobalFoundries has accused the Taiwanese tech giant TSMC of appropriating its manufacturing methods and is seeking a ban that could break major supply chains.
Glencore will halt operations at the facility that produces 20 percent of the world's cobalt supply, creating repercussions for market and tech manufacturers.
Confident that the United States has enough domestic stability to handle Chinese retaliation, the White House is imposing an additional 10 percent tariff on $300 million in Chinese goods. But the president is playing with fire.
Their G-20 summit has the potential to create a trade war truce that unsticks the frozen U.S.-China trade talks, but a number of pitfalls remain.
Animated by their opposing visions of economic prosperity and global influence, China and India's competition over Pakistani and Iranian ports, respectively, carry on at all costs.
A new blacklist of "unreliable" companies opens the door for more targeted retaliation against U.S. and other foreign tech suppliers.
Beijing has signaled its willingness to cut off U.S. access to some of the raw materials vital for batteries and other high-tech products.
To retaliate for White House targeting of its technology sector, Beijing could limit exports of the elements crucial to U.S. tech production. But such a move would carry a steep price.
