Assessments Feb 28, 2022 | 21:16 GMTFeb 28, 2022
To avoid Russian retaliation and showcase its independence from NATO, Ankara will resist calls to sanction Moscow over the Ukraine invasion.
The Syrian Civil War
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On Geopolitics Jan 11, 2022 | 21:52 GMTJan 11, 2022
Syria’s Normalization Risks Continuing the Cycle of Conflict and Authoritarianism in the Middle East
As Arab states rekindle ties with Damascus, other regional states or actors risk seeing al Assad’s success as proof that force is a valid option to quell threats to their control.
By Ryan Bohl
Assessments Oct 21, 2021 | 20:53 GMTOct 21, 2021
Getting Damascus to take the steps needed to restore its links to the outside world may cost Moscow its reputation as a reliable ally.
Snapshots Oct 12, 2021 | 20:54 GMTOct 12, 2021
Retaliating against YPG militants in northern Syria would put Ankara back on a confrontational path with Russia and Damascus.
On Geopolitics Sep 9, 2021 | 20:07 GMTSep 9, 2021
After de-escalating tensions on the battlefield, Russia will increasingly find itself mediating between regime hard-liners and still-loyal Syrian reformists.
By Ryan Bohl
Snapshots Jul 30, 2021 | 20:33 GMTJul 30, 2021
Clashes between government and rebel forces in the border city of Daraa could stoke unrest elsewhere in Syria and send a new flood of refugees into Jordan.
Assessments Jul 13, 2021 | 20:38 GMTJul 13, 2021
Moscow’s push to erode humanitarian conditions in the rebel-held province could trigger another major military confrontation with Turkey.
Assessments Apr 20, 2021 | 15:59 GMTApr 20, 2021
By cozying up with a rival of its longtime ally Iran, Damascus could find itself lodged in a battle for influence.
Assessments Mar 16, 2021 | 18:11 GMTMar 16, 2021
Without a viable exit strategy or a new security threat, U.S. operations in the war-torn country will stagnate, renewing calls for a full withdrawal of troops.
By Ryan Bohl
Assessments Mar 3, 2021 | 22:57 GMTMar 3, 2021
Tehran will reject any demands to cut ties with regional militias, raising the risk for more violence in conflict zones like Iraq.
