As Arab states rekindle ties with Damascus, other regional states or actors risk seeing al Assad’s success as proof that force is a valid option to quell threats to their control.
By Ryan Bohl
Getting Damascus to take the steps needed to restore its links to the outside world may cost Moscow its reputation as a reliable ally.
Retaliating against YPG militants in northern Syria would put Ankara back on a confrontational path with Russia and Damascus.
After de-escalating tensions on the battlefield, Russia will increasingly find itself mediating between regime hard-liners and still-loyal Syrian reformists.
By Ryan Bohl
Clashes between government and rebel forces in the border city of Daraa could stoke unrest elsewhere in Syria and send a new flood of refugees into Jordan.
Moscow’s push to erode humanitarian conditions in the rebel-held province could trigger another major military confrontation with Turkey.
By cozying up with a rival of its longtime ally Iran, Damascus could find itself lodged in a battle for influence.
Without a viable exit strategy or a new security threat, U.S. operations in the war-torn country will stagnate, renewing calls for a full withdrawal of troops.
By Ryan Bohl
Tehran will reject any demands to cut ties with regional militias, raising the risk for more violence in conflict zones like Iraq.
Israel’s push to cut deals with Syria via vaccines could prompt it to pursue a similar strategy to thaw its more difficult relationship with Lebanon.
