Syria

Turkey

Military & Security

The Turkey-backed rebel Syrian National Army warned that new Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces have gathered near locations in Syria that Turkey has threatened to invade, Reuters reported June 7.

Turkey, Syria: Syrian Rebels Warn That Forces Are Deploying to Block Turkish Offensive

The Syrian Civil War

Security

Turkey's Resurgence

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey is preparing for a new offensive against the Kurdish militia People's Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria to expand a 30-kilometer buffer zone, Al Jazeera reported May 24.

Turkey, Syria: Erdogan Threatens Fresh Offensive Along Border

Russia

Iran

Israel

A Russian S-300 missile system in northwest Syria fired on Israeli jets on May 13 during an Israeli air raid on targets near Masyaf, The Times of Israel reported May 17.

Israel, Russia: Russians Reportedly Fire on Israeli Jet in Syria

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

On the night of April 26-27, Israeli forces targeted military sites in Damascus with ballistic missiles and struck a weapons depot (along with as many as four other targets in the Damascus area), killing at least four Syrian soldiers and wounding three others, Reuters reported April 27.

Syria: Israel Strikes Targets Near Damascus, May Have Killed Iranian Personnel

United States

United Arab Emirates

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Syrian President Bashar Assad met with Emirati Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, The Times of Israel reported March 19.

UAE, Syria: Syrian President's Meeting in Dubai Paves Way for Increased Normalization

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Politics

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Instability in Central Asia

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said Israel will support a U.N. General Assembly resolution to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, The Times of Israel reported Feb. 28.

Israel, Russia: Israeli Condemnation of Russian Invasion Does not Equal Military Support for Ukraine

The Ukraine Conflict

Jordan

Lebanon

Energy

Economics

Lebanese and Jordanian officials signed a deal to move toward purchasing Jordanian electricity that will supply Lebanon with two hours of electricity per day in about two months, with financing to be negotiated by the World Bank, Bloomberg reported Jan. 26.

Lebanon, Jordan: Signing of Electricity Deal Could Alleviate Lebanese Migration, Unrest

Yemen

The United Arab Emirates announced it shot down two ballistic missiles near its capital of Abu Dhabi and subsequently blamed Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels for the attack, CNN reported Jan. 24.

UAE, Yemen: Increased Airstrikes Could Undermine Business Confidence in Abu Dhabi

The Saudi Survival Strategy

For some, the Syrian civil war is a fight for survival. The minority Alawites that dominate the government — such as it is — face the prospect of persecution if they lose, and the assorted Sunnis who oppose them face the prospect of violent reprisal if they lose. But for others, the Syrian civil war is an opportunity. Turkey is using the conflict to advance its interests in the region — interests that include curbing Kurdish expansion. Iran is trying to preserve its arc of influence, which extends to the Mediterranean Sea, in the face of staunch Sunni opposition. Russia is using the war as leverage in broader negotiations with the United States, which is itself working to disable terrorist organizations there. Conflicting agendas in such an already chaotic environment will keep an enduring resolution to the conflict beyond reach.

For some, the Syrian civil war is a fight for survival. For Turkey, Iran, the United States and Russia, it is an opportunity.

Iraq

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Kurdish Struggle

The Battle for Mosul

Crossing Borders

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

Assessments

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes a statement on Feb. 28, 2022, in Ankara after holding a cabinet meeting focused on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

To avoid Russian retaliation and showcase its independence from NATO, Ankara will resist calls to sanction Moscow over the Ukraine invasion. 


Pressure To Punish Russia Puts Turkey in a Tough Spot

Columns

On Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Syrians wave national flags and carry a large portrait of President Bashar al Assad in the streets of Damascus on May 27, 2021.

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

As Arab states rekindle ties with Damascus, other regional states or actors risk seeing al Assad’s success as proof that force is a valid option to quell threats to their control. 

Syria’s Normalization Risks Continuing the Cycle of Conflict and Authoritarianism in the Middle East

Russian and Syrian flags wave above a damaged building in Syria's southern city of Daraa on Sept. 12, 2021.

Getting Damascus to take the steps needed to restore its links to the outside world may cost Moscow its reputation as a reliable ally.

To Improve Syria’s Image Abroad, Russia Gently Twists al Assad’s Arm

Snapshots

A vehicle destroyed in a bombing is seen in Syria's rebel-held northern city of Afrin on Oct. 11, 2021. 

Retaliating against YPG militants in northern Syria would put Ankara back on a confrontational path with Russia and Damascus. 

In Syria, a Kurdish Attack Risks Triggering a New Turkish Offensive 

Russian military vehicles are seen in the southern Syrian city of Daraa on Sept. 6, 2021.

After de-escalating tensions on the battlefield, Russia will increasingly find itself mediating between regime hard-liners and still-loyal Syrian reformists. 

As Syria’s Civil War Winds Down, New Political Splits Await

A picture taken on Aug. 2, 2018, shows destroyed buildings in the southern Syrian city of Daraa. 

Clashes between government and rebel forces in the border city of Daraa could stoke unrest elsewhere in Syria and send a new flood of refugees into Jordan.

In Syria’s Civil War, the South Reemerges as a Battleground

Civilians and humanitarian workers form a human chain calling for the continuation of U.N.-authorized aid near Syria’s Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey. 

Moscow’s push to erode humanitarian conditions in the rebel-held province could trigger another major military confrontation with Turkey.


In Syria, Russia Plays With Fire by Restricting Idlib Aid

An ariel view shows a camp in Idlib for people displaced by Syria's ongoing civil war on April 13, 2021. 

The Civil War in Syria

By cozying up with a rival of its longtime ally Iran, Damascus could find itself lodged in a battle for influence.

Desperate for Help, Syria May Turn to the UAE

Libya

U.S. soldiers patrol oil fields in northeast Syria on Feb. 13, 2021.

Without a viable exit strategy or a new security threat, U.S. operations in the war-torn country will stagnate, renewing calls for a full withdrawal of troops.

In Syria, U.S. Fears of Getting Stuck Will Haunt Biden’s Mission

Smoke billows above a Syrian village following an airstrike raid on March 3, 2020. 

Tehran will reject any demands to cut ties with regional militias, raising the risk for more violence in conflict zones like Iraq. 

U.S. Talks Won’t Change Iran’s Proxy Strategy

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Yemen Civil War

A health worker administers a dose of the Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine at a mobile clinic near Moshav Dalton in northern Israel on Feb. 22, 2021. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel’s push to cut deals with Syria via vaccines could prompt it to pursue a similar strategy to thaw its more difficult relationship with Lebanon. 

COVID-19 Aid Offers Israel an Opportunity for Regional Reconciliation 

COVID-19

A Hezbollah flag flutters on the Lebanese side of the border with Israel on Sept. 2, 2019. 

Political unrest, unprecedented financial instability and surging COVID-19 cases will beckon the group home, shifting its decade-long focus on external objectives. 

The Syrian Civil War

SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey, Syria: Syrian Rebels Warn That Forces Are Deploying to Block Turkish Offensive

Turkey, Syria: Erdogan Threatens Fresh Offensive Along Border

Israel, Russia: Russians Reportedly Fire on Israeli Jet in Syria

Syria: Israel Strikes Targets Near Damascus, May Have Killed Iranian Personnel

UAE, Syria: Syrian President's Meeting in Dubai Paves Way for Increased Normalization

Israel, Russia: Israeli Condemnation of Russian Invasion Does not Equal Military Support for Ukraine

Lebanon, Jordan: Signing of Electricity Deal Could Alleviate Lebanese Migration, Unrest

UAE, Yemen: Increased Airstrikes Could Undermine Business Confidence in Abu Dhabi

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