To bolster what remains of its legitimacy, President Erdogan’s party will likely double down on nationalist and protectionist policies, even if such efforts create more problems down the road.
By Ryan Bohl
If Turkey continues allowing migrants to flood its border, Greece could again become the epicenter of Europe's next migration crisis. But this time, there will be even fewer EU countries willing to help lift the load.
Even as the agreement with Moscow sets up the Syrian government for its next offensive in Idlib province, Ankara can claim the deal as a diplomatic success, albeit a limited one.
In this episode of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast, Stratfor analysts Ryan Bohl and Sim Tack discuss the Syrian government's offensive against rebel forces in Idlib province, a military action carrying significant risks for Turkey and Russia
For now, there is little to indicate that Ankara will get what it needs to stop the Russian-supported Syrian government's offensive in Idlib province and preserve its influence there.
By Ryan Bohl
Although the ruling party calculates that it has the political heft to withstand growing economic concerns, it has hedged its bets by pursuing an aggressive foreign policy that appeals to nationalism.
Ankara has no intention of abandoning its presence in the northwestern Syrian province -- even if that drives a wedge between it and Russia.
By Ryan Bohl
Turkey's threat to kick the U.S. military out of a key base could put the wider region on a slippery slope toward nuclear proliferation.
Ankara's offer of special operations forces and more to Libya's ailing Government of National Accord is unlikely to roll back Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter anytime soon.
Turkey's strategy of advancing its economic and foreign policy interests via greater involvement in Libya carries a significant risk of mission creep.
