Turkey's Resurgence

Washington and Ankara's deal to temporarily halt the fighting in northeastern Syria provides more questions than answers, suggesting the truce is unlikely to endure.

With Washington's hasty retreat from northern Syria upending the regional balance, Turkish and Syrian forces could soon come to blows.

Ankara has long sought to establish a buffer zone to protect Turkey from the effects of the Syrian civil war, but as the Turkish government finally gets closer to getting what it wants, its aspirations will crash into geopolitical reality.

The U.S. Congress and the European Union are threatening to punish Ankara for its military operation against the Kurds in northeastern Syria. It's a price Turkey appears willing to pay.

Ankara wants to accomplish its objectives before Kurdish-led forces can shore up their resistance and to minimize the international backlash that's already building.

Ankara appears to have decided that the benefits of invading northeastern Syria will be worth risking a heavy U.S. sanctions blow.

In its pursuit of Syria's Kurds, Ankara may bypass Washington's objections at the risk of paying a heavy economic price.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces lowers the risk of an unintended clash with Ankara, but it will sow distrust of Washington among possible on-the-ground allies.

Turkey's president has a tried-and-tested formula for dealing with challenges to his rule. Whether it will succeed against a new threat to his dominance is another question.

The Turkish government's key political ally in Arbil is back on top, clearing the path to escalate its regional military operations. But the more Ankara embroils itself in the fight against Kurdish insurgents, the more it risks bringing that fight back home.