2018 Second-Quarter Forecast

South Asia

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region’s great population centers. India is the region’s dominant country, home to the world’s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.

Mar 9, 2018 | 17:12 GMT
Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders.

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders.

(CoolR/Shutterstock.com)
section Highlights
  • A deepening rivalry with China -- on land, at sea and economically -- will push India into closer defense cooperation with the United States.
  • More frequent militant attacks in Kashmir and increasing incidents of cross-border fire from both sides of the Line of Control will add tension to the relationship between India and Pakistan.
  • Intensifying violence in Afghanistan will further strain relations between Pakistan and the United States, prompting Islamabad to strengthen its ties with Russia, China and Iran.
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