Just hours after North Korea destroyed the tunnels at its Punggye-Ri nuclear test site in front of an audience of international reporters, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a formal letter calling off direct talks between himself and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.
For more insight on these latest moves and if the summit is in fact off for good, we sit down with Stratfor Senior Vice President of Strategic Analysis Rodger Baker and Asia-Pacific Analyst Evan Rees in this episode of the Stratfor Podcast.
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Transcript
Even Rees [00:00:00] Hello, I'm Evan Rees an Asia Pacific Analyst at Stratfor. This podcast is being brought to you by Stratfor Worldview, the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform. Individual, team, and enterprise memberships are available at worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe.
Rodger Baker [00:00:27] If you look at the odd negotiating tactics of both the North Koreans and their traditional patterns, and this administration, both of them canceling doesn't necessarily mean it won't happen. Although them saying it will happen, doesn't necessarily mean it will. They seem to love this unpredictability.
Ben Sheen [00:00:52] Welcome to the Stratfor podcast, focused on geopolitics and world affairs from stratfor.com. I'm your host, Ben Sheen. Just hours after North Korea destroyed the tunnels at Punggye-ri nuclear test site, ahead of scheduled direct talks with the United States, US President, Donald Trump, issued a formal letter calling the summit off. For more and what we should make of these moves, and in fact, if the summit is off the table for good, we sit down with Stratfor Senior Vice President of Strategic Analysis, Rodger Baker and Asian Pacific analyst Evan Rees. Thanks for joining us.
Rodger Baker [00:01:27] Hi, I'm Rodger Baker, I'm sitting here with Evan Rees. We're going to be looking at the US President's letter to North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, stating that the summit is off. It certainly came as a surprise to the North Koreans, to the South Koreans, and to the American's this morning as well. Evan, what are you seeing initially as some of the responses to this?
Even Rees [00:01:50] First of all, the South Koreans are scrambling. It appears that they may not have been informed of this ahead of time, President Moon Jae-in just made this big trip to the US. Met with Trump at the White House in an effort to try to keep this on track. It came after midnight, or late in the evening in South Korea. They called an emergency meeting, they're trying to figure out what to do. There were reports out of North Korea that some of the journalists that were there for the test site dismantling were actually reading the Trump letter to North Korean officials there and North Korean officials simply left the room. Everybody seems to be scrambling to try to react to the shock announcement right now.
Rodger Baker [00:02:21] One of the things that we've been looking at is whether this is the result of the technical problems in coming to an actual final agreement on how to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons, what's the timing? What does denuclearization mean? All of those questions, and whether this appears to be more of the way in which this administration, and this president in particular, likes to negotiate. If you look at this in some ways, certainly, those technical problems exist, de-nuclearization particularly in a short time frame, is something that's highly unlikely. But that's not a surprise. It's sort of been known from the start.
Even Rees [00:03:03] Right, you've got to do this easily.
Rodger Baker [00:03:04] What is denuclearization? How do you define it? What's the pace, what's the scope? These are all things, that from the start, everybody knew were going to be in many ways, irresolvable in a way that would make both sides happy. One of the things I was looking at, is when we saw the timing of this. The North Koreans for the past several days, have been putting out little notes in their media, well, maybe the summit won't happen. In some ways, this seems like the United States, at least this administration, effectively calling the North Korean bluff and doubling down. Saying, "Okay, you don't want the summit to happen, there won't be a summit. You're the ones who said there would be a summit, you asked for it, now you're saying you don't want it? we'll cancel it." But, this President seems to have left the door open both in the letter and in the public statements to reengaging for this type of summit.
Even Rees [00:03:50] Right, he said in his public statements, he said there's still a possibility this can go forward if North Korea changes their behavior. In addition to threatening that the military strike was still on the table, and we could move in that direction as well. It was their choice.
Rodger Baker [00:04:02] Do you see anything in the timing of the delivery of this letter? It did come immediately after the North Koreans blew up their nuclear test site.
Even Rees [00:04:10] Literally hours after, and shortly after this second statement out of the North Korean's threatening to cancel it themselves. North Korea has given it's two big concessions so far. The US made sure that they were fully delivered, the US got the three hostages, the US got their site dismantled. It has those in the back pocket, and now it's kind of the North Korean's next move to try to respond to the US and show that they have some good will, and they're willing to change their behavior. I have a question for you, what do you think the Chinese are thinking about all of this? What's their reaction going to be?
Rodger Baker [00:04:40] There's probably a combination of concern and relief by China. On the one hand, China's number one fear was that the US and the North Korean's sat down, the two leaders sat down. Their personality's created such a dynamic that they both stormed out of the meeting and came out saying, this is never going to work. Which effectively would've thrown the United States back on the military path. In other words, if clearly the two leaders can't solve this from a political perspective, there is only one solution, and that is the military solution. The Chinese's biggest fear, was that this was rushed, and it was going to fall apart. On the other hand, they're concerned that it isn't happening, because if you heard the president this morning, one of the first things he did in said of saying, there's room for more talk. He talked about how big the US military is, how he's already talked to the US military commanders, and they're ready to bomb North Korea if they need to. He did reraise that military threat right away. It does seem to throw off that at least brief moment that looked like things were calming in that region. Now, I don't necessarily see this as the end of the talks. Both sides have a very strong in moving forward. The Chinese would love to see these happen, the South Korean's would love to see this happen. The North Korean's and the American's both want to see this happen. If you look at the odd negotiating tactics of both the North Korean's and their traditional patterns
Rodger Baker [00:06:06] and this administration, both of them canceling doesn't necessarily mean it won't happen, although them saying it will happen doesn't necessarily mean it will. They seem to love this unpredictability. But for China, now, in the medium term, if this doesn't happen, for China, their view will be that the United States is the intransigent partner. It may start to break down some of the international support behind maximum pressure.
Even Rees [00:06:30] That's going to be a lot harder to bring back into play even if all this diplomatic breakout completely breaks down. The US just nixed the agreement on the JCPOA, the European's are going to be much less likely to cooperate. In addition you'll have China and Russia criticizing this. In the UN, they'll be pushing back against that. South Korea is going to be more hesitant. It's just going to be a lot harder for the US to swing back into the position that it had in 2017, and get back on line with it. One of my questions now, is what is North Korea's next move? Could we see North Korea start testing new missiles again? Could we see North Korea start getting more belligerent? What do you think they're actually going to do next?
Rodger Baker [00:07:09] After they catch their breath, I would argue, that at least in the near term, the North Korean's are not going to make a rapid return to what the US would call belligerence. Again, the North Korean's have been moving in this path for months. They stopped missile tests awhile ago. They stopped nuclear tests awhile ago. There have been negotiations going on with the South Korean's. They're changing the way in which the rest of the region perceives them. If they simply start popping off missiles, and testing nukes again, in the near term, they will lose any of the good will of any of the countries around them and maybe solidify the idea that the United States was right all along, you have to use military force. The North Koreans are probably going to play a physically quieter role. But again at the back end, the North Koreans have been making these physical moves. I don't think that they were expecting the US to call off the Summit. They would've made these physical moves if they didn't have some layer of expectation, or at least alignment with the United States, at least in their back end negotiations and talks. This is one of those moments where the intentional unpredictability of both sides certainly leaves the outcome up in the air. Even if you can see the underlying strategic postures by both sides.
Even Rees [00:08:24] Right and we have to remember that the summit was announced just as suddenly as it was canceled. Things can change really, really quickly in this dynamic. It really remains to be seen what both sides are going to do next.
Ben Sheen [00:08:40] For more insights into US, North Korea relations, and our ongoing assessment on developments on the Korean peninsula, be sure to read our related analysis at Stratfor Worldview. We'll include links in the show notes. If you're not already a Worldview member, you can sign up for our free newsletter. You will learn more about individual team and enterprise access, at worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe and you can also share your thoughts on this podcast and ongoing developments with North Korea in our members only forum. For more geopolitical intelligence, analysis, and forecasting that reveal the underlying significance and featured locations of emerging world events, follow us on Twitter, @Stratfor.
