While Colombia's peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) steadily approach their end, a second set of talks has yet to begin. The country's second-largest militant group, the smaller and militarily weaker National Liberation Army (ELN), has not opened formal negotiations with the state. But the guerrillas' survival depends on such talks; the Colombian government, with its superior military, does not need a negotiated peace as much as the ELN does. For its part, the ELN will probably try to open negotiations in 2016, but the movement's divisions and intransigence could eventually leave it at the mercy of Colombian security forces.
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos ordered Colombia's armed forces and police Feb. 8 to intensify operations against the ELN. Santos also demanded that the militant group release two of its hostages as a precondition for formal negotiations. Since 2014, the ELN and the government have periodically held confidential meetings to open a formal peace process. But so far, the most the two sides have agreed upon is a roadmap for talks similar to that of the FARC negotiations, and the ELN continues to insist on a cease-fire before talks begin — something the government refuses to accept.
But the ELN is at far more risk than the Colombian government. Even if the FARC and the government reached a political settlement in the coming months, there is no guarantee that the ELN would receive the same treatment. Unless the state explicitly allows the ELN to receive the benefits of the FARC peace agreement (such as access to transitional justice mechanisms), the two peace processes will remain separate.
Meanwhile, the government has not made up its mind about the ELN's future. The ELN will probably try to open talks this year, if only because the alternative — the group's degradation, if not destruction — is unacceptable. Remaining in the Colombian hinterland or in Venezuela is not a viable option either. Cuba's rapprochement with the United States and Venezuela's economic collapse could eventually cost the group these havens abroad, so some of the ELN's leaders likely feel the need to come to a settlement with the government.
But the group's window of opportunity to open talks is narrowing. So far, one impediment to negotiations appears to be divisions within the ELN. Another reputed obstacle to negotiations is the ELN's connection to Venezuela. Time is on Bogota's side, however; it is the ELN that really needs a negotiated settlement. Even unsuccessful talks will not create significant security problems for the Colombian government, particularly if — and likely when — as a result of talks the FARC breaks into smaller organized crime groups. With a strong, centralized and politically motivated FARC insurgency disbanded, the government's full counterinsurgency capabilities will likely focus on smaller insurgent and criminal groups such as the ELN.
