The militarization of space started long ago, but true weaponization has yet to begin in earnest, at least publicly. Modern militaries depend on satellites for a number of vital functions: Orbital platforms act as a force multiplier for terrestrial operations and enable thermal image acquisition, weapons targeting through GPS and worldwide communications. Though space weapons have not yet been effectively deployed, the threat they propose — and the widespread use of non-weaponized satellites for military purposes — has compelled countries to develop deterrents through anti-satellite weapon technology. This anti-satellite technology (widely referred to by the acronym ASAT) can also be used to target any satellites in orbit, particularly those used by the United States and its allies. The deployment of ASATs, though, comes at a price: The more these anti-satellite weapons are used, the more debris they create from destroyed satellites. The debris poses a continual and indiscriminate threat to commercial and military satellites alike, but little alternative is possible because of the urgency of this new weapons race.
ASAT technology first became apparent during the Cold War, but over the past decade it has become an area of intense competition for the world's most capable militaries. Since the U.S. military is by far the most reliant on space-based technologies, the United States will have the most to lose from advances in other countries' anti-satellite systems. As militaries refine the associated technologies, ASAT capability will become cheaper and more accessible to smaller militaries, which in turn will goad more nations to join the reinvigorated space race (Iran and North Korea already have). Larger militaries want to be sure they can counter attempts to weaponize and militarize space, and international endeavors have mostly failed to provide those assurances through diplomatic means.
Since the development of space-based military systems and surface-based weapons to counter them is both challenging and costly, the technology will be slow to develop. However, it is clear that the militarization of space will only increase. China, Russia and the United States are already developing their space technology alongside the weapons needed to target opposing space technologies. Nations who have not already joined the revived space race will soon follow suit.
