French voters will go to the polls April 23 to choose from among 11 candidates in the first round of the presidential election. In the likely case that no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a runoff between the two top performers will follow May 7. According to the most recent opinion polls, four candidates stand a good chance of reaching the second round: nationalist Marine Le Pen (National Front), centrist Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!), conservative Francois Fillon (Republican Party) and leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon (Unsubmissive France).
Though Macron and Fillon have proposed different combinations of spending cuts, investment plans and economic reform, a victory by either would not pose much of a threat to the status quo in French and European politics. A win by Le Pen or Melenchon, on the other hand, would open the door to profound change. Le Pen has pledged to apply "intelligent protectionism" to defend the French economy and has promoted the idea of holding a referendum to decide whether France should leave the European Union. Melenchon, meanwhile, has promised steep hikes in public spending and has threatened to leave the European Union unless the bloc introduces deep reforms.
After the presidential election wraps up, legislative elections will follow on June 11 and 18. The next president will need support from the National Assembly to make good on electoral promises, especially for disruptive measures like a referendum on EU membership. The National Assembly also holds the key to the country's governability. In the French semi-presidential system, a president coexists alongside a prime minister. While the president appoints the prime minister, the National Assembly has the power to force the resignation of the prime minister and Cabinet. This means that the president must choose a prime minister who reflects the will of the majority in the National Assembly.
Because presidential and legislative elections take place within weeks of each other, the same party often wins both. It is possible, however, for different parties to control the presidency and the National Assembly, a situation in France called "cohabitation." It forces the president and prime minister to cooperate to avoid political paralysis.
