Iraq's Electoral Reform Will Further Deadlock Parliament

Opponents of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have chosen the April 30 parliamentary elections to launch their strongest challenge yet. New electoral laws have created conditions that could reverse the past decade's trend of large powerful coalitions, weaken sectarian alliances and encourage greater infighting within and among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political groups. This means the election process will probably be longer and more divisive than ever before as an unprecedented number of political actors try to create a fragile power-sharing agreement. As a result, the central government will become weaker, and its authority will be further undermined by increased paralysis in the legislature.

This will pose new challenges for Iran as it tries to maintain its influence over a patchwork of political actors leading a new ruling coalition. Iranian influence has also been increasingly challenged by cautious Turkish inroads into Kurdistan and more aggressive moves by Saudi Arabia. However, despite the challenges facing Iraq's future government and its Shiite benefactors in Iran, the Shiite factions will not lose control of the central pillars of Iraqi stability: the oil sector, the military, state finances and foreign policy. Rather, Baghdad will see a gradual decline in its ability to manage the demands of the country's minority populations.