Iraq's Kurds Could Find Leverage With Baghdad in Fighting Sunni Militants

Recent moves by the Iraqi and Iranian governments suggest that their Shiite leaders are content to let Kurdish peshmerga forces contain the Sunni militants in northern Iraq, relieving pressure on the Iraqi army and enabling Baghdad to focus on threats closer to home before looking north. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki could be willing to bargain for Kurdish military support. Baghdad's dependence on the peshmerga gives the government in Arbil leverage, which the Kurds will likely use to further pressure Baghdad on key issues — such as recognizing the Kurdish political status in disputed territories and allowing limited Kurdish energy exports.

Even if a short-term compromise is reached, the peshmerga are unlikely to venture far into Sunni Arab-dominated regions. Although the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and its Sunni militant allies have avoided opening a new front against the Kurds, wary of overextending themselves by challenging Iraqi forces and peshmerga simultaneously, the Kurdish forces are well aware of the dangers they would face if they launched operations against the militant group and its supporters. Moreover, any concessions al-Maliki offers to stabilize the security environment will prove to be stopgap measures and must be limited in scale so as not to alienate his remaining support among nationalist Sunni Arabs or hard-liners within his own Shiite camp. The constraints on both sides will prevent anything more than a short-term marriage of convenience, meaning the underlying dispute between Baghdad and Arbil will remain unresolved.