Mexico: A Cartel's Rise and Inevitable Fall

Earlier this year, the Mexican government vowed to dismantle the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, one of Mexico's most powerful crime syndicates. Eventually, the government's efforts will destroy the cartel, and smaller autonomous networks will emerge from its wake. But it is unclear when cracks will begin to appear. For the time being, the cartel will remain the fastest-expanding crime group in Mexico. In 2015, it has been consolidating control in Baja California state, fighting in San Luis Potosi state and beginning to expand into Zacatecas state.

This expansion reflects the gradual breakdown of organized crime in Sinaloa and Tamaulipas states since 2010 that has made way for the spread of groups from the rural region known as Tierra Caliente, including the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, into other parts of Mexico. As with all organized crime networks facing persistent law enforcement pressure, the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion is doomed to one day decentralize. More broadly, however, its current expansion will cement the status and influence across Mexico of criminal groups that originated in the Tierra Caliente region.