Nigeria's Unsustainable Peace Deal with Boko Haram

According to Oct. 17 statements released by both Nigerian government and military officials, Nigeria has reached a cease-fire deal with Islamist rebel group Boko Haram — one that includes the release of more than 200 female students kidnapped in April. This claim, however, should be met with caution. It is not the first time that the government has reported a truce with the militants. Although the government may have in fact finalized a deal with particular leaders, Boko Haram is a deeply fractured movement. And any concessions that the government may have made — which could include ransom payments or even prisoner swaps — will not put an end to the movement. A single agreement cannot erase the regional divides between Boko Haram's home territory in northern Nigeria and the nation's southern core. Even if confirmed, the release of every last one of the kidnapped students may well be impossible: Boko Haram leaders would have to gather them after likely having divided them between local groups. Some may even have been carried outside of Nigeria and into the broader Sahel region. Regardless of these obstacles, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and his supporters will present this as a political victory, using it to shore up his position in February 2015 elections.