The Post-China 16: Ascendant Manufacturing Countries

Jul 30, 2013 | 15:46 GMT

Employees work on the assembly line.
Employees work on the assembly line at Hon Hai Group's Foxconn plant in Shenzhen, China, on Wednesday, May 26, 2010.

(Photo by In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images)

The Post-China 16: Ascendant Manufacturing Countries

As a maturing China moves beyond the low-end manufacturing and export-led model that defined its dramatic three-decade rise, a new group of countries is emerging to assume that role in the global economy. The outlines of this group, what we call the Post-China 16, or "PC16," are only now coming into focus. Indeed, the specific countries may change and the precise roles they play in this transition — their success in following the path China has trod — remain to be fully seen. Even though the movement of two indicator industries — garment manufacturer and mobile telephone assembly — signals change, this is a transition that is as yet pre-statistical; few if any reliable trade numbers or volumes now exist to plot the contours of this shift. But it is, Stratfor has concluded, a shift that is already well underway.

For more information on purchasing the full PC16 report, which assesses each member of the grouping, and for details on custom briefings and analysis for your organization, click here.