Prepare for a Transition

Editor's Note: This is the fifth installment of a five-part series authored by ETM Analytics, an economic and financial advisory firm with offices in the United States and South Africa. The analysis contained herein reflects the views of ETM and not of Stratfor. In fact, as you will see, it is different from our existing worldview in some significant ways. We are sharing this with our readers because it is good work, produced using rigorous analytic tools and methodology. As always, we look forward to receiving comments and feedback. At the end of the series, we will share what we hear from you along with Stratfor's thoughts on how our view differs from ETM's.

The United States has made a grand gamble, risking its finances on an activist economic policy that has repeatedly destabilized the financial system. China, too, has taken risks with policy activism, racking up a great deal of debt, the consequences of which reach far beyond Chinese borders. These great wagers reveal a profound transition underway in the global economy, one that will bring new threats to be avoided and fresh opportunities to be seized. Though the past decade was anything but calm, the next decade is set to be rockier still as financial instability shakes the global monetary order to its very foundations.