China may use the fatal May 9 shooting of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippine coast guard as a chance to align with Taiwan over maritime territorial disputes, in which the two countries have shared historical claims, and Beijing may also use the incident to justify its aggressiveness in the South China Sea. Taipei's position in the maritime disputes has long been constrained by its lack of international recognition and its complicated relations with China, which views Taiwan as a disobedient province that will eventually be subsumed by the mainland. In 2012, Taiwan attempted to reassert its independence in the East China Sea by signing a fishing agreement with Japan in waters around the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands — a move that undermined Chinese interests. China is hoping to use the May 9 incident to demonstrate that it is better equipped to protect Taiwanese maritime interests than other regional states and to deter the Taiwanese government from looking elsewhere for support. Compared to most of its neighbors, Taiwan lacks maritime clout and could benefit from following China's lead in the disputes. But such a strategy may eventually come at the expense of Taiwanese interests, since China could exploit Taiwan's relatively weak position in the territorial conflict in pursuit of its own interests. Thus, Taipei has to strike a careful balance between pursuing diplomatic independence and enforcing its maritime claims in a way that would benefit China — Taiwan's most serious and enduring security threat.
