When the country descended into civil war in 2011, it was already facing economic troubles. Drought conditions hurt the country's agricultural sector, all the more so as rural Syrians moved in droves to urban areas. The country's economic output had shrunk by more than 40 percent by 2013. As its cash flow dwindled, Damascus was forced to progressively cut food, fuel, water and electricity subsidies. By 2015, Syria's reserves had reportedly fallen to just $1 billion, enough money to cover roughly a month's worth of imports. The cost of food, meanwhile, rose by 99 percent in 2016 compared with the previous year.
All of this bodes ill for President Bashar al Assad: The country's precipitous economic decline could start to undermine trust in the government, even among its most loyal supporters. And since the government has lost the ability to provide basic services to its people, Syrians have taken matters into their own hands to furnish necessities. In rebel-held territories such as Idlib, competing factions have taken over supplying food, water and electricity to the local populace. As a result, Damascus' authority over the country has weakened, even in the territories it still technically controls.
In late 2016, the Syrian government claimed its greatest triumph in the civil war so far when it pried the city of Aleppo from rebel control. But the government's gains did little to ameliorate the country's food shortages. The Islamic State is still present in eastern Syria, formerly the country's breadbasket. In addition, the government can no longer rely on the abundant agricultural production in the country's northeastern corner because Syrian Kurds have taken control of the region, which they hope to establish as a semi-autonomous zone. Even though the Kurdish territory is still nominally under the central government's control, Damascus is steadily losing its influence there.
The country is on the verge of a wheat crisis, too. The government could apparently afford only one-third of the wheat it had planned to purchase for the month of January. In fact, Damascus' cash crunch kept it from finalizing a deal for a much-needed 1 million-metric ton wheat shipment from Russia at a 20 percent discount. The offer reveals Russia's interest in helping the Syrian government get back on its feet — one that Damascus lacked the funds to take advantage of. But other countries are lining up to cash in on Syria's eventual reconstruction, especially Iran. When the time finally comes to begin picking up the pieces, the government in Damascus will not embark on the daunting task of reconstruction alone.
