In a surprisingly swift operation, the Taliban seized control over much of the Afghan city of Kunduz on Sept. 27. However, as quickly as the group gained Kunduz, it again lost it to internationally backed Afghan forces. Still, the momentary victory was the highest profile territorial gain for the Taliban since U.S.-backed forces ousted the group from power in 2001. It also highlights the substantial challenges Afghanistan's unity government faces, both politically and in terms of security. Afghan officials have provided conflicting reports on precisely how the Taliban were able to so quickly wrest control of the city from security forces (fighting lasted less than a day), though it is clear that government forces retreated from the fight. It is also evident that the balance of power is shifting in Afghanistan and that the trend is unlikely to reverse without international intervention.
The government in Kabul currently operates under a tenuous power-sharing agreement that emerged from the 2014 elections. This agreement has made the government's security efforts as important for political stability as they are for maintaining Afghanistan's territorial integrity. Kunduz is a major population center, strategically located on highways that connect directly to Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif. But it is just one of the cities in which Afghan security forces are struggling to maintain control against the Taliban insurgency. Until winter brings its usual lull in insurgent activity, the Taliban will continue to conduct attacks and to stage similar offensives in northern provinces, including Faryab, Takhar, Baghlan, and Badakhshan. This is in addition to Taliban operations in the southern and eastern provinces of Afghanistan. Kabul's challenge will be to balance its security efforts in Kabul with those in these other areas.
Mercifully, the Taliban movement is also divided, inhibiting the organization's ability to conduct operations against the Afghan government. But without a renewed commitment by international forces, Kabul’s military and political limitations will surpass the limitations of a divided Taliban. Winter will dampen the Taliban's ability to stage offensives like the one in Kunduz, but it is clear from this active fighting season that Kabul's insurgency problem is far from over.
