In Thailand, Political Instability Threatens New Opportunities in Southeast Asia

The popular unrest that has brought Thai politics to a standstill is not particularly remarkable; political instability in the country has occurred cyclically over the past decade, and it shows no sign of abating anytime soon. What is remarkable about the current bout of turmoil is that it could prevent Thailand from benefiting from emerging economic developments in Southeast Asia.

Over the past century, Thailand's geopolitical advantages, namely its strategic location and ethnic and cultural influence, have conferred on the country a regional leadership role. But Southeast Asia is changing: Manufacturers are leaving China as it moves up the value chain, the region is slowly integrating economically, the United States is turning its attention away from the Middle East toward the Asia-Pacific region, and Beijing is trying to expand its influence in Southeast Asia. If instability persists, Thailand may not be able to lead or even benefit from these new regional realities.