ASSESSMENTS

Venezuela: New Rumors of Chavez's Health Spark Succession Concerns

Dec 3, 2012 | 11:30 GMT

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (R) and Vice President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas

JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has largely disappeared from public view since the Oct. 7 election; his last appearance was Nov. 15. His curious absence, along with recent reports that he is seeking medical treatment in Cuba, has set off perennial rumors regarding his deteriorating health. If Chavez dies within the next four years, Venezuela could undergo an extended period of instability and a replay of the October election, which could result in a political transition on a scale that Venezuela has not seen since Chavez was first elected president in 1999.

Three scenarios may unfold. If Chavez lives, his term will continue to face monumental political, economic and security challenges. If Chavez accepts his mortality and organizes a managed transition, a unified United Socialist Party of Venezuela would likely fare well in a snap election. If Chavez dies unexpectedly without a clear successor, a unified opposition — likely behind former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski — would stand its best chance to come to power in over a decade.

There are three possible scenarios for the presidency: continuity, managed transition or power struggle....

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