After five months of the Saudi-led intervention, Yemen's civil war may be drawing to a close. The Saudi-led air campaign has finally given way to an effective counteroffensive supporting exiled President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi. The question is no longer whether there will be a settlement but rather what the specific terms of peace may be. Whatever the impending solution, it will not fully resolve the deep political disputes that divide the country. The same conflict that has devastated Yemen has also united its many interest groups into two opposing factions. With the end of the war, those alliances will dissolve, creating an even more fragmented political environment and laying the groundwork for Yemen's next crisis.
Even when the government is nominally in control of the country again, the Houthi movement will not simply disappear. The conflict may become dormant, but Houthis are a staunch political and demographic entity in Yemen and will continue to seek more autonomy.
But perhaps one of the more serious short-term threats to a new government will be the rejuvenation of the independence movement in the south. The country was split between North and South Yemen from 1967 to 1990. Until recently, the central government has suppressed the Southern Movement's lingering dream of reviving South Yemen. However, Sanaa's weak rule over the central mountains, eastern deserts and coastal areas continues to somewhat legitimize claims for South Yemeni independence.
Another party that has benefited from the crisis is al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The group has actively fought Houthi rebels — mostly with vehicle-borne IED attacks and armed assaults on Houthi positions — in conjunction with its tribal allies. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula also took control of the town of Mukalla in the coastal Hadramawt province. The group's successes have not been without costs, though — in particular, several drone strikes have targeted al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leaders in and around Mukalla. Still, the jihadist faction is comfortably nested in Yemen and will become yet another serious problem for a central government. Much like the Southern Movement, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is directing its attention to the Houthi threat for now. But as soon as Houthi forces no longer project power in Hadramawt, the jihadist group will compete with the Hadi government and the Southern Movement to regain control over the province.
