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On Geopolitics

On GeopoliticsJan 19, 2026
The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 1, 2025
Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict
European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23.
On GeopoliticsOct 27, 2025
Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.
On GeopoliticsOct 10, 2025
The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution
An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories.
On GeopoliticsOct 8, 2025
A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025.
On GeopoliticsOct 7, 2025
Political Instability Roils South Asia

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025.
On GeopoliticsOct 2, 2025
'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan.
On GeopoliticsSep 16, 2025
The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil.
On GeopoliticsSep 15, 2025
Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality
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