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On Geopolitics

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.
On GeopoliticsFeb 19, 2025
Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

By Ryan Bohl
Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.
On GeopoliticsJan 31, 2025
Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

By Ryan Bohl
U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C.
On GeopoliticsJan 15, 2025
Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners.

By Nate Fischler
A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland.
On GeopoliticsJan 10, 2025
The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape
By Matteo Ilardo
Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.
On GeopoliticsJan 3, 2025
Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast
By Amelia Harnagel
On GeopoliticsDec 23, 2024
Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

By Hayley Benedict
Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.
On GeopoliticsDec 11, 2024
Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future
By Ryan Bohl
South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea.
On GeopoliticsNov 29, 2024
Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.
On GeopoliticsNov 21, 2024
The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

By Adriano Bosoni
An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel.
On GeopoliticsNov 13, 2024
How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

By Ryan Bohl
On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.
On GeopoliticsNov 12, 2024
Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

By Matthew Orr
3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.
On GeopoliticsNov 8, 2024
Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'
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