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A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.
On GeopoliticsMar 3, 2026
Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

By Matthew Bey
A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.
On GeopoliticsFeb 24, 2026
Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

By Ryan Bohl
A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe.
On GeopoliticsFeb 19, 2026
The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

By Adriano Bosoni
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.
On GeopoliticsFeb 16, 2026
To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options
By Adriano Bosoni
A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.
On GeopoliticsJan 28, 2026
The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality
By Ryan Bohl
The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other.
On GeopoliticsJan 26, 2026
Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

By Adriano Bosoni
On GeopoliticsJan 19, 2026
The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion
By Markus Jaeger
A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

By Amelia Harnagel
Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

By Ryan Bohl
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

By Chase Blazek
Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 1, 2025
Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

By Ryan Bohl
European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23.
On GeopoliticsOct 27, 2025
Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia
By Adriano Bosoni
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