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On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources
On GeopoliticsMar 31, 2026
The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

By Matthew Bey
Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.
On GeopoliticsMar 23, 2026
The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.
On GeopoliticsMar 3, 2026
Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

By Matthew Bey
A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.
On GeopoliticsFeb 24, 2026
Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East
By Ryan Bohl
A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe.
On GeopoliticsFeb 19, 2026
The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy
By Adriano Bosoni
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.
On GeopoliticsFeb 16, 2026
To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

By Adriano Bosoni
A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.
On GeopoliticsJan 28, 2026
The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality
By Ryan Bohl
The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other.
On GeopoliticsJan 26, 2026
Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

By Adriano Bosoni
On GeopoliticsJan 19, 2026
The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

By Markus Jaeger
A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

By Amelia Harnagel
Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

By Ryan Bohl
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
By Chase Blazek
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