Brazil

United States

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Politics

Brazil's Supreme Court required former President Jair Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor and prohibited him from using social media, speaking to other individuals under investigation for an alleged 2022 coup plot, contacting diplomats, and going near embassies, g1 reported on July 18.

Brazil, U.S.: Restrictions on Bolsonaro To Further Sour U.S.-Brazil Relations, Fuel Unrest Risks

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched a Section 301 investigation over Brazil's trade practices and their potential unfair restriction on U.S. exports and companies, Reuters reported July 15. 

U.S., Brazil: Section 301 Investigation Will Keep Trade Rift Alive in Medium Term

Brazil's attorney general asked the Federal Supreme Court to convict former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven of his close allies for their alleged involvement in a 2022 coup plot, g1 reported on July 15.

Brazil, U.S.: Legal Developments Involving Former President To Add Pressure on Bilateral Relations

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the country will resort to its economic reciprocity law to retaliate against the 50% tariff U.S. President Donald Trump announced would begin Aug. 1, Folha de S.Paulo reported on July 9. 

U.S., Brazil: Brazil To Consider Alternative Retaliation to 50% U.S. Tariffs

Ethiopia

Nigeria

South Africa

Uganda

Cuba

Iran

United Arab Emirates

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

BRICS+ leaders gathered in Brazil for the bloc's 17th summit and issued a joint statement defending multilateralism, calling for U.N. reform and supporting Russia's and Iran's positions in ongoing conflicts, g1 reported on July 6.

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Argentina

Paraguay

Uruguay

Venezuela

Liechtenstein

Norway

Switzerland

Iceland

South America's Mercosur trade bloc and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, finalized a free trade agreement that will cover 97% of shipments between the entities, Reuters reported on July 2. 

South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Brazil's Supreme Court ruled on June 26 that social media platforms can be held legally responsible for users' posts, the Financial Times reported on June 27.

Brazil: Supreme Court Ruling Holds Digital Platforms Liable for Users' Posts

Brazil's Congress approved a fast-tracked bill to suspend a financial tax increase President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva enacted via decree in May, g1 reported June 25.

Brazil: Congress Tariff Reversal Highlights Weak Governability, Fiscal Strain

Assessments

Israel

France

United Kingdom

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

Snapshots

Bolivia

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

Global Trade

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

Belize

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Peru

Suriname

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

General view of the plenary session of Brazil's lower house in Brasilia during an April 2, 2025, vote on the reciprocity law, which allows the Brazilian government to retaliate against countries or economic blocs that impose trade barriers on products from Brazil. 

Although U.S. tariffs will hinder Brazil's economy and reduce foreign direct investment, unique opportunities for Brazilian exporters may mitigate the impact of the looming global trade war.

U.S. Protectionism Portends Opportunities and Hurdles for Brazil

Lebanon

Japan

Ukraine

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speaks at a seminar in Brasilia, Brazil, on Feb. 20, 2025.

The former president will likely be convicted on charges that he helped stage an armed coup in 2022. But the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening President Lula's re-election bid next year.

What Bolsonaro's Likely Arrest Means for Brazilian Politics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tanzania

Americas

Iraq

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Cambodia

Europe

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Low savings and investment, along with an increasingly uncertain fiscal outlook and increasing debt, make it unlikely that Brazil will succeed in maintaining its current growth momentum.

Brazil’s Economic Growth Is Set To Face Headwinds

Changes in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change will increasingly challenge Brazil's crop production, causing unrest.

Global Elections

The Geopolitics of Water: The Impact of Climate Change on Brazil's Agribusiness

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Canada

Algeria

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Turkey

Taiwan

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Energy

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Germany

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

<p>Larger in land mass than the contiguous United States, Brazil borders every country on the South American continent except Ecuador and Chile. Three features define Brazil&#39;s geography: the Amazon Basin, tropical savanna and the Brazilian Highlands. The Amazon River and rain forest, the world&#39;s largest, encompass most of northern Brazil and make this region inhospitable to agriculture and large populations. To its south lies the Cerrado, a vast tropical savanna. Advances in agricultural practices have allowed large-scale farming to thrive in this region. However, due to distance and geography, Brazil faces daunting challenges in getting agricultural commodities to international markets. The Brazilian Highlands and the narrow strip of land between the mountains and the coast are home to the majority of the country&#39;s 197 million people. Most of the country&#39;s economic activity occurs in this region. Brazil&#39;s geography largely shields it from external military threats. The Atlantic Ocean, the Amazon Basin and the buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay insulate the country. Brazil&#39;s varied regions have made centralized control and integration difficult for the core states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Infrastructure linking the coast and the interior, as well as connecting the various coastal cities is technically difficult and requires high levels of investment. Isolated from the rest of the continent both geographically and linguistically and lacking internal cohesion, Brazil has traditionally been inward looking. Brazil&#39;s primary geographic challenging is consolidating control over its vast peripheral territory and connecting these regions more efficiently with its population centers and ports.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil, U.S.: Restrictions on Bolsonaro To Further Sour U.S.-Brazil Relations, Fuel Unrest Risks

U.S., Brazil: Section 301 Investigation Will Keep Trade Rift Alive in Medium Term

Brazil, U.S.: Legal Developments Involving Former President To Add Pressure on Bilateral Relations

U.S., Brazil: Brazil To Consider Alternative Retaliation to 50% U.S. Tariffs

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism

Brazil: Supreme Court Ruling Holds Digital Platforms Liable for Users' Posts

Brazil: Congress Tariff Reversal Highlights Weak Governability, Fiscal Strain

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