United States

China

Philippines

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

U.S.-China Relations

Chinese coast guard ships fired water cannons at two Philippine government fisheries vessels near the Scarborough Shoal, marking the second consecutive day of such actions there and third China-Philippines South China Sea confrontation in five days, Reuters reported on July 24.

China, Philippines, U.S.: Maritime Escalation Pushes South China Sea Dispute Onto Trump-Xi Agenda

A Chinese coast guard vessel fired its water cannon for more than two minutes at a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel near the Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea, scoring only an indirect hit, during a resupply mission of the latter vessel, Reuters reported on July 23.

China, Philippines: Water Cannon Incident Marks Second South China Sea Confrontation in Four Days

A Chinese coast guard boat collided with a Philippine Navy rubber patrol boat near the contested Second Thomas Shoal, where a Chinese crew member struck a Philippine sailor in the head with a wooden baton, injuring him and damaging the Philippine boat, Reuters reported on July 20. 

China, Philippines: Sailor Injured in Melee Near Second Thomas Shoal

Philippine Sen. Rodante Marcoleta was arrested on a nonbailable plunder charge over allegations that he accepted $1.2 million in undeclared donations, Reuters reported on July 6.

Philippines: Another Duterte Ally Arrested as Impeachment Trial Begins

A Philippine navy frigate was conducting a patrol near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on June 20 when it was confronted and shadowed by four Chinese warships, the South China Morning Post reported on June 23.

China, Philippines: Scarborough Shoal Patrol Draws Chinese Naval Response

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Russia

Energy

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted leaders and senior officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Kazan, Russia, for a two-day summit, AP reported on June 18, marking the first such leaders' summit since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

ASEAN, Russia: Summit Highlights How Energy Shock Gives Moscow a Regional Opening

The Philippine Senate formally elected Sherwin Gatchalian, an ally of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., as Senate president during a special session, replacing Alan Peter Cayetano, an ally of Vice President Sara Duterte, The Philippine Star reported on June 17.

Philippines: Senate Leadership Shakeup Eases Paralysis

The Philippine Senate resumed work after a senator aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte's bloc broke ranks, enabling rival senators aligned with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to secure a 12-member quorum, elect an acting Senate president and reorganize the chamber's leadership, Reuters reported on June 3.

Philippines: Senate Resumes Work With Disputed New Leadership

Assessments

Japan

Taiwan

A Chinese coast guard vessel is anchored in the waters of the South China Sea on March 8, 2026 near Sanya, Hainan province, China.

China's persistent maritime presence east of Taiwan demonstrates a slowly growing capability to threaten or enact a trade quarantine against the island and raises the risk of at-sea incidents. 

Extended Chinese Drills East of Taiwan Demonstrate Trade Quarantine Risk

Snapshots

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Myanmar

Singapore

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Iran

United Kingdom

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head during funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leade, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 5 in Tehran, Iran.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, ASEAN and Major Power Foreign Ministers Meet

Israel

Lebanon

Europe

France

Ukraine

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

The NATO headquarters is seen in Brussels, Belgium.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Hosts NATO Summit, Iran Buries Slain Supreme Leader

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

Armenia

Kazakhstan

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Venezuela

Egypt

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Mongolia

South Korea

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

Cyber

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Philippines, U.S.: Maritime Escalation Pushes South China Sea Dispute Onto Trump-Xi Agenda

China, Philippines: Water Cannon Incident Marks Second South China Sea Confrontation in Four Days

China, Philippines: Sailor Injured in Melee Near Second Thomas Shoal

Philippines: Another Duterte Ally Arrested as Impeachment Trial Begins

China, Philippines: Scarborough Shoal Patrol Draws Chinese Naval Response

ASEAN, Russia: Summit Highlights How Energy Shock Gives Moscow a Regional Opening

Philippines: Senate Leadership Shakeup Eases Paralysis

Philippines: Senate Resumes Work With Disputed New Leadership

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support