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What's driving the reinvigorated U.S.-Philippines alliance?

Essential Geopolitics: The Impact of Deepened U.S.-Philippines Relations on U.S.-China Tensions

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A Chinese coast guard ship (R) shadows the Philippine coast guard vessel BRP Malapascua (L) while on patrol at the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea on April 23, 2023.

Military & Security

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Washington woos the Philippines with strategic clarity, despite the dangers of a military conflict with China.

Clarified U.S. Defense Commitments Rock the Boat in the South China Sea

U.S.-China Relations

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Taiwan

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (right) meets with his Philippine counterpart, Carlito Galvez (left), at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., on April 12, 2023. 

The reinvigorated defense alliance will improve the U.S.'s ability to counter Chinese military moves in nearby waters. But it will also place Manila directly in Beijing's crosshairs.

The Revamped U.S.-Philippine Alliance Starts to Come to Fruition

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Chinese maritime militia vessels float near the Philippine-controlled island of Thitu, which Filipinos call Pag-asa, in the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea on March 9, 2023.

Recent incidents in the South China Sea illustrate the competing interests of claimant states amid increasing militarization.

A Look at Recent Incidents in the South China Sea

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Indonesia

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Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Thailand

A Chinese coast guard ship sails past anchored Philippine fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea, on Feb. 3, 2023.

A binding code of conduct in the South China Sea remains unlikely, despite the resumption of negotiations between claimant states.

With No Deal in Sight, South China Sea Claimants Continue to Militarize

Philippine marines take part in a joint military exercise with their U.S. counterparts at a training camp northwest of Manila in May 2018.

Though intended to deter Beijing's unrelenting incursions, Manila's push to bolster its security ties with Washington also threatens to have the opposite effect.

The Philippines Secures Its Spot in the Middle of U.S.-China Tensions

Southeast Asian governments will need sustained vigilance to prevent a resurgence in localized violence.

Essential Geopolitics: The State of Violent Extremism in Southeast Asia

People visit the Grand Palace in Bangkok, Thailand, in June 2020, as it reopened for visitors amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. 

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China's strict COVID-19 restrictions are unlikely to ease anytime soon, depriving the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand of billions of dollars of revenue once generated by Chinese tourists.

A Prolonged Absence of Chinese Visitors Will Plague Southeast Asia's Economic Recovery

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A photo taken on May 23, 2022, in Tokyo shows U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attending a video call with leaders from countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

The narrow scope of the initiative will limit its effectiveness in achieving Washington’s goal of countering China’s regional rise.

The Stumbling Blocks of Biden's New Indo-Pacific Economic Bloc

Supply Chains

Supporters of Philippine presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the country's late dictator, attend a campaign rally in a Manila suburb on April 24, 2022.

Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the country's late dictator, is the frontrunner. But a surprise win by his main rival could see a big shift away from Duterte-era policies.

Previewing the Philippines' Presidential Election

A conversation about a book that explores how middle powers use economic cooperation and military strengthening to balance between major powers.

Baker's Dozen: 'Philippinedization' and Middle Power Security

Columns

On Security

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United Kingdom

Rising competition with the West and more programs designed to counter China's BRI will prompt Beijing to expand its intelligence-collection efforts.

China's Cyberespionage Will Remain Robust and Expansive in Southeast Asia

Fiji

Cyber

Earth Longzhi, a subgroup of Chinese state-sponsored hacking group APT41, has reemerged after months of dormancy, according to a May 2 report by Japanese multinational cybersecurity firm Trend Micro.

China: New Report Highlights Return of Hacking Group Earth Longzhi

U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said the U.S. Navy is prepared to assist the Philippines in its resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal by committing U.S. vessels to the mission if requested by Manila, Nikkei Asia reported on May 1.

U.S., Philippines: Washington's Participation in Resupply Missions Will Raise the Stakes With China

Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo told a Senate inquiry that the United States cannot stockpile arms or refuel, repair, and reload materiel in the country as part of any Taiwan conflict contingency under the recently revived and expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), The Philippine Star reported on April 19.

U.S., Philippines: Manila Suggests Upper Limit to Military Cooperation

The United States and the Philippines announced on April 3 the locations of four new sites for military cooperation in the Philippines, Time reported the next day.

U.S., Philippines: Four New Military Sites Highlight Tension Points With China

Around 45 Chinese vessels remain inside the territorial waters of the Philippine-controlled island of Thitu, which Filipinos call Pag-asa, in the contested Spratly Islands in what Manila calls a "clear violation of the Philippines' sovereignty," BenarNews reported on March 8.

China, Philippines: Chinese Vessels Remain Near Philippine-Controlled Island as Code of Conduct Negotiations Resume

Kao Kim Hourn, the secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said the bloc and Japan will elevate ties to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" before or during a special summit celebrating 50 years of relations in December, Kyodo News reported March 8.

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) circulated an alert revealing that Chinese-linked hackers stole 30 GB of data and over 10,000 emails from ASEAN countries and the ASEAN secretariat in February 2022, BenarNews reported March 3.

China, ASEAN: Trove of Stolen Data Revealed Ahead of South China Sea Negotiations

Japanese President Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. agreed to a deal allowing military-to-military disaster relief operations while vowing to further strengthen their countries' security ties, Reuters reported Feb. 9.

Japan, Philippines: Countries Agree to Deepen Security Relationship

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The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

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SITUATION REPORTS

China: New Report Highlights Return of Hacking Group Earth Longzhi

U.S., Philippines: Washington's Participation in Resupply Missions Will Raise the Stakes With China

U.S., Philippines: Manila Suggests Upper Limit to Military Cooperation

U.S., Philippines: Four New Military Sites Highlight Tension Points With China

China, Philippines: Chinese Vessels Remain Near Philippine-Controlled Island as Code of Conduct Negotiations Resume

Japan, ASEAN: 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' Is Forthcoming

China, ASEAN: Trove of Stolen Data Revealed Ahead of South China Sea Negotiations

Japan, Philippines: Countries Agree to Deepen Security Relationship

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