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The Philippines significantly eased restrictions on engagement with Taiwan by allowing Philippine officials to host Taiwanese officials and by allowing Taiwanese delegations to visit the island, though Manila maintained prior prohibitions on top national security leaders like the president and defense minister, Nikkei Asia reported on April 22.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

Military & Security

China's navy intercepted and expelled a Philippine naval frigate near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on April 20, the South China Morning Post reported the next day.

China, Philippines: Both Countries Use Naval Assets in Latest South China Sea Incident

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Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that Malaysia, as 2025 chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), will lead a coordinated bloc-wide response to stiff tariff hikes instituted by the United States on all its members, the South China Morning Post reported April 7. 

Asia-Pacific: ASEAN Chair Malaysia Attempts Coordinated Response to U.S. Tariffs

Timor-Leste

Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states are disproportionately impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, The Wall Street Journal reported April 3. 

ASEAN: Southeast Asia Most Severely Impacted Region by U.S. Tariff Hikes

The United States approved a $5.58 billion sale of 20 F-16 fighter jets and related weapon systems and equipment to the Philippines, marking a major upgrade in Manila's air combat capabilities, Defense News reported on April 2. 

Philippines, U.S.: F-16 Sale Highlights Manila's Frontline Taiwan Role

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit the Philippines from March 28 to 29, where he will meet with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro to discuss expanded defense cooperation, Radio Free Asia reported March 25. 

Philippines, U.S.: Hegseth Visiting Manila to Reaffirm Defense Partnership

Interpol arrested former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte at Manila's international airport upon his return from Hong Kong, The Manila Times reported on March 11.

Philippines: Former President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested for Crimes Against Humanity

A Philippine air force FA-50 fighter jet crashed in Bukidnon, Mindanao, on March 4 while providing air support against the New People’s Army guerrillas, Reuters reported on March 5. 

Philippines: Crashed Fighter Jet Highlights Continuing Insurgency

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Assessments

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Japan

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a joint press conference on Jan. 10, 2025.

Japan is intensifying its diplomatic and security engagement in Southeast Asia through defense, trade and infrastructure agreements to counterbalance China and enhance regional stability.

Ishiba Strengthens Japan's Role in Southeast Asia With Defense and Trade Deals

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U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. 

A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.

The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts

A U.S. amphibious assault ship takes part in a joint U.S.-Philippines military exercise on the shores of San Antonio town, facing the South China Sea, on April 11, 2019. 

Global Elections

Like Biden, Harris would likely see the Philippines as a key partner in regional efforts to counter China, while Trump would likely adopt a more transactional, bilateral approach that could either strengthen or strain ties with Manila.

How Might the U.S. Presidential Election Impact Ties With the Philippines?

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

The flags of ASEAN members are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Batam, Natuna regency, Riau Islands province, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023. 

ASEAN's economic and geopolitical diversity will impede significant progress toward deeper integration, despite members' intention to collaborate more closely.

Economic and Geopolitical Diversity Hinders ASEAN's Path to Deeper Integration

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A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

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A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

China, Philippines: Both Countries Use Naval Assets in Latest South China Sea Incident

Asia-Pacific: ASEAN Chair Malaysia Attempts Coordinated Response to U.S. Tariffs

ASEAN: Southeast Asia Most Severely Impacted Region by U.S. Tariff Hikes

Philippines, U.S.: F-16 Sale Highlights Manila's Frontline Taiwan Role

Philippines, U.S.: Hegseth Visiting Manila to Reaffirm Defense Partnership

Philippines: Former President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested for Crimes Against Humanity

Philippines: Crashed Fighter Jet Highlights Continuing Insurgency

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