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Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

A conversation about what's behind the strained relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan.

Essential Geopolitics: Russia vs. Kazakhstan

Assessments

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrive in Astana before a regional summit on Oct. 14, 2022. 

Moscow's steadily eroding economic and political influence over Astana could eventually push Russia to retaliate with coercion -- and potentially even military action. 

The Risks of Kazakhstan's Slow Drift From Russia

Algeria

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) listens to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) at the 2019 Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin and Erdogan Head to Kazakhstan, Palestinian Leaders Head to Algeria

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United States

Ukraine

Computer equipment used by a 'miner' of Ethereum on Oct. 20, 2021, in Vilassar de Mar, Spain.  A proof-of-stake concept will reduce Ethereum's power consumption by an estimated 99.9% and enable faster transaction speed calculations.

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Xi at the SCO Summit, Ramaphosa at the White House

Chinese President Xi Jinping gives a speech in Hong Kong on July 1, 2022. 

The Chinese president's first post-COVID trip abroad will showcase Beijing's desire to boost economic cooperation with developing states like Kazakhstan, as well as solidify its partnership with Russia amid mounting competition with the West. 

Xi's Central Asia Visit Offers a Fresh Start for Chinese Diplomacy

Guidance

Servicemen and their military vehicles block a street in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on Jan. 7, 2022, following violent protests in the city. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

The harsh crackdown on protests and deployment of Russian troops risk exacerbating the factors turning Kazakhs against their government and its ties to Moscow.

The Response to Kazakhstan’s Crisis Sets the Stage for Future Unrest

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Belarus

Protesters rally against a hike in fuel prices in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on Jan. 5, 2022. 

The violent political unrest has discredited Kazakhstan's 2019 power transition, casting doubt on the viability of similar scenarios for Russia and Belarus's own succession plans.

Mass Protests in Kazakhstan Reverberate Across Eurasia

The Ukraine Conflict

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An oil pumpjack operates in Signal Hill, California, on April 21, 2020, a day after oil prices dropped to below zero amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. 

Energy

A Crude Recovery

As the pandemic continues to sap demand, upticks in OPEC+ supply will undermine efforts to rapidly balance the global market and drain excess inventories.

Amid a Global COVID-19 Resurgence, Oil Prices Are Poised to Stall

COVID-19

The Saudi Survival Strategy

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A shopkeeper wearing a protective mask serves a client on April 22, 2020, in Berlin from behind a protective plastic screen in a coffee store open for the first time since a COVID-19 shutdown. The world is slowing beginning to emerge from various COVID-19 lockdowns. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The World Peaks its Head Out From COVID-19 Lockdowns

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. 

Eurasia

<p>Eurasia is the world&rsquo;s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia&rsquo;s farthest reaches &mdash; a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia&rsquo;s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev criticized the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and appeared to caution against political integration between its members, The Moscow Times reported on May 25.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Tries to Slow Eurasian Economic Union Integration, Avoid Western Sanctions

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Chinese President Xi Jinping held bilateral talks and signed 23 new agreements, including a 30-day visa-free regime, Reuters reported on May 17.

Kazakhstan, China: Presidents Sign Visa-Free Regime and Other Agreements

Preliminary results suggest Kazakhstan's ruling Amanat party won a majority of seats in the country's early parliamentary election, receiving at least 53% of the votes cast for the 98 seats in the lower house, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on March 20.

Kazakhstan: Ruling Party Retains Majority Despite Falling Support

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kazakhstan for his first official visit to the country, where on Feb. 28 he will meet with the Kazakh president and other senior officials, Kazinform reported Feb. 27.

U.S., Kazakhstan: Blinken in Central Asia for First Time for C5+1

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev repealed a law that had granted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev the honorific title of "Elbasy" (Father of the Nation) and other guarantees and benefits, Mediazona reported Feb. 15.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Repeals Law on First President Nazarbayev

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dissolved the lower house of Parliament and called a snap election for March 19, Reuters reported Jan. 19.

Kazakhstan: President Dissolves Parliament Ahead of Early Election

Citizens of countries that are part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are no longer allowed to immediately renew their 90-day visa-free status in Kazakhstan, as the Kazakh government decreed that they may not legally stay in the country for more than 90 days within a 180-day period, The Washington Post reported Jan. 18.

Kazakhstan, Russia: Astana Tightens Entrance Rules as Russians Flee Mobilization

Uzbekistan's energy minister responded to a Russian proposal for a "gas union" including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia by saying the government would not agree to any political conditions that would jeopardize its national interests, Reuters reported Dec. 8.

Uzbekistan, Russia: Tashkent Skeptical of Russia's 'Tripartite Gas Union' Proposal

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The ninth largest country in the world, Kazakhstan rests in the heart of Central Asia, bordering Russia to its north; China on its east; Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan along its south; and the Caspian Sea to its west.     The defining feature of Kazakhstan is the Kazakh Steppe, a large dryland stretching across more than 70 percent of the country. Only 12 percent of the country's land is arable, and the majority of that is in the north connecting into Russia's agricultural belt. There is also a large pocket in the south. This expanse has largely pushed the population of nearly 18 million to the outer borderlands. The steppe is encircled by a series of sizable mountain ranges.      The core of the country lies in the corridor stretching across the Shymkent (also known as Southern Kazakhstan) and the Almaty region, where the climate is warm compared with the inhospitable deserts of the steppe. This stretch of land lies in the Syr Darya river basin, creating a fertile pocket of land protected to its east, west and north by mountain ranges. Shymkent and Almaty were some of the largest stopping posts along the Silk Road, and they now have the country's densest population and swaths of the financial, industrial and agricultural sectors. To the region's south lies the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan &mdash; a vulnerable point to its core.     The Kazakh economy is dominated by its energy sector, making up nearly 20 percent of the gross domestic product. The country exports 78 percent of its oil production, regionally and along large trunk lines to China and Russia. Along with its agricultural and metals wealth, Kazakhstan's energy sector has made the country highly valuable to its neighbors. In recent decades, the country has positioned itself as the financial hub of Central Asia, tying in the banking systems of its smaller neighbors.     Kazakhstan maintains strong ties with Russia, which reach back to its empire and Soviet phases. But the government in the capital, Astana, is also developing links to China and other players to balance Moscow. The country tries to maintain working relationships with its smaller neighbors, who have seen bouts of instability. Kazakhstan's challenges stem from its mostly hollow interior, from encroaching large powers and from the potential instability of smaller regions on its border.

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Kazakhstan's Ministry of Justice granted registration to the Green Party, making it the first new party in almost two decades to receive permission to legally operate as a political entity, Eurasianet reported Nov. 30.

Kazakhstan: First New Political Party Registered in Nearly 20 Years

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Tries to Slow Eurasian Economic Union Integration, Avoid Western Sanctions

Kazakhstan, China: Presidents Sign Visa-Free Regime and Other Agreements

Kazakhstan: Ruling Party Retains Majority Despite Falling Support

U.S., Kazakhstan: Blinken in Central Asia for First Time for C5+1

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Repeals Law on First President Nazarbayev

Kazakhstan: President Dissolves Parliament Ahead of Early Election

Kazakhstan, Russia: Astana Tightens Entrance Rules as Russians Flee Mobilization

Uzbekistan, Russia: Tashkent Skeptical of Russia's 'Tripartite Gas Union' Proposal

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